Uncertainty in the weekend forecast with rain from the northwest. Ahead of that, could be settled, fair weather with light winds. Nothing extreme just hard to pin down the timing of any rain.
The end of this week will be more unsettled with outbreaks of rain as low pressure moves over the UK on Friday. For the weekend, there will be rain and blustery winds over western Scotland and Northern Ireland on Saturday morning with brighter weather further south and east. Another Atlantic frontal system will move in, shunting the rainbands from Friday night as they head away to the Norwegian Sea. High pressure lurks away to the southwest but further low pressures and weather fronts will sail our way from the North Atlantic.
With a large loop in the jetstream, the Friday low pressure almost gets trapped, close to the UK until Saturday. Unsettled weather will reach down through France and Iberia for the start of the weekend. Paris will see blustery showers and gusty winds on Friday but looks brighter by Saturday at 17C. Madrid will see thundery downpours and temperatures of only 15C. Lisbon looks showery on Saturday in an NW wind but up to 18C.
For the UK, London should have a lot of dry weather. Saturday looks brighter but with temperatures of only 15C unless good breaks appear in the cloud cover. Glasgow looks showery and cool at only 12C.
Timings and locations of showery outbreaks will be difficult to pin down for the weekend, this far ahead. There is variation in the model output.
The UKV shows frontal rain moving from the northwest in the morning with some lively downpours for Northern Ireland, north and western Scotland. Next, the rain should reach Cumbria and western Wales later in the afternoon. Ahead of this, there will be fine, dry and bright weather for southern Britain. The moderate breeze will be from the southwest.
Cloudy, damp weather will move over more of England during Saturday night allowing colder air from the north with clear skies. This might leave a frost by early Sunday depending on the timing of the next weather system arriving from the west. Around the Irish Sea looks wet but southeast England could escape dry.
The ECM model is slower with the progress of the rainband from the northwest. However, that might result in more fair, dry weather across the UK away from NW Scotland with a few showers creeping across the England Channel from France. With very little breeze, any cloud could linger.
The GFS model keeps the rainband away to the NW leaving more settled but potentially cloudy weather over the UK. More uncertainty about any brightness and temperatures. The frontal bands don’t reach over Ireland and northern Britain until Sunday and it fades away. Sunday afternoon looks fair with light winds, mostly dry apart from a band of rain over the Northern Isles with strong winds.
The ECM model for Sunday is similar but the next system arrives faster from the Atlantic with rain into Northern Ireland and western Scotland to end the weekend.
It’s a tricky forecast but reassuringly lacking in any signs of severe weather. If you are seeking reliable, dry weather, well late October wasn’t going to offer that without a steady high pressure. And that high pressure will still be away over the Azores although it does extend towards southern England by later on Sunday.
All to play for.
Sadly GFS has followed EC det with that troublesome shortwave at 168
00z didnt have it
northwestsnow my mistake - didn’t notice they were T2 - assumed 850’s
still relevant that to day 8 I don’t expect mobility to have kicked in
SunSean Ah its only 5 Dec and I can see a few crisp sunny days ahead next week.
WARNING NOW UPDATED - for Saturday AMBER WARNING now for wind gusts up to 80mph from STORM DARRAGH!
