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Watching Wednesday - Severe Weather Likely

Published on 14th August 2012 09:57

Watching Wednesday - Severe Weather Likely

After some heavy showers and storms rumbled well into the evening in parts of Ireland, NW England and SE England, today has started on a calmer note but with a scattering of showers across the country. That theme will continue throughout the day with the showers most frequent close to the coasts of England and Wales, through a good chunk of Scotland and across the northern half of Ireland. Elsewhere while a shower can't be ruled out, there should be a good deal of dry, bright weather on offer with temperatures hitting the respectable highs of 19-25c across the country - warmest in the east. As we head into the evening some more showers will make their way into the southwest of the country and this is where we need to be watching as a spell of potentially pretty nasty weather arrives into Wednesday. It's all being bought about by a low pressure system which will swing up just across or west of Ireland bringing with it a spell of very heavy rain, high winds and the potential for some quite severe storms. There is some uncertainty (still) about the exact track of the low, so there are likely to be some changes in the fine details but following the showery outbreaks of rain which spread up from the southwest into Wales and across Ireland tonight, a further spell of very heavy rain moves in from the southwest tomorrow and heads fairly quickly northeast. At the same time winds will be strong with gales possible on the coasts of both Britain and Ireland, and during the heavy downpours and storms as the rain band heads northeast there could be some very gusty winds too. The rain is likely to bring totals of 25-50mm for many and in this over a fairly short duration as some quite torrential downpours are expected. Storms with frequent lightning, hail and strong gusting winds are also possible - but uncertainty around this and the track and intensity of the system is important to emphasise. The rain band is expected to clear the north of Scotland by around midnight with some sharp, blustery showers following it into western areas during the day and overnight. Into Thursday it's drier initially with just a scattering of showers but another system arrives up from the southwest later to bring another period of wet and windy weather. Later in the week with high pressure close enough to the southeastern quarter of the UK to have some influence we're likely to see a split with southeastern regions seeing the driest and potentially hot weather, further northwest it stays very unsettled with further spells of rain and wind at times.

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