High pressure is going to play a more prominent role in the UK's weather as we move through the first half of April, drying things out, after what was an exceptionally wet March.
According to the Met Office, March 2023 was the wettest March for 42 years in England, with southerly tracking depressions bringing frequent rain. For England, Wales and Northern Ireland, it was in the top 10 wettest Marches. It was not, however, as wet as March 1947 in England, when frequent heavy snow followed by rain and a thaw followed an exceptionally cold and, in some areas, snowy February and led to widespread flooding.
The recent rain will have helped to alleviate the risk of drought to some extent, but with dry weather forecast for April and long-range forecasts suggesting plenty of dry weather ahead, March has the potential to turn out to be a blip in an otherwise dry sequence of months. February and the second half of January were very dry, so there is still potential for drought conditions to return in some parts of the country as we head towards the summer of 2023. The drier weather will mean that for many, the weather will be more favourable for outdoor activities going into April, and it looks likely that it will be predominantly dry and settled during the Easter weekend.
As is often the case with months with a southerly tracking jet stream, parts of north-west Scotland were both drier and sunnier than average, as they had relatively few days with a mild, moist south-westerly bringing cloud rain chiefly to north-west Scotland. Relative to average, the dullest and wettest weather was in central and southern England.
March was colder than average in central and northern Scotland, where Arctic air masses were very frequent. In the second week, this Arctic air affected most of the country and brought widespread snow with significant accumulations on higher ground. However, in most of England and Wales, temperatures were close to the 1991-2020 long-term average and about a degree above the old 1961-1990 average, as the frequent cloud and rain in the second half of the month were accompanied by warm tropical maritime air.
With extensive cloud cover for most of the UK, it will be quite a mild night for most with minimum temperatures between 4 and 7C, but where skies clear, most likely in the west of Scotland and in north-east England, temperatures will fall close to freezing and result in a slight frost in places.
Sunday will get off to a cloudy start in many areas but it looks probable that the sun will break through in most parts of the country during the day, and Monday and Tuesday look set to be dry sunny days for a large majority of the country with high pressure dominating the weather. Temperatures will slowly recover by day, though it will not become particularly warm for the time of year, and by Tuesday we can expect widespread highs of 13 to 15C. Northern Scotland and Northern Ireland will often be cloudier. With clearing skies and a relatively cold air mass in occupation, there is potential for a widespread frost on Sunday night into Monday with temperatures falling close to freezing in most inland areas, and a slight frost is also likely for many on Monday night.
Wednesday onwards looks like staying generally dry but becoming cloudier, with one or two bands of rain affecting mainly north-western parts of Britain. The high pressure looks set to intensify again into the Easter weekend, promising dry weather.
