Uncertainty continues around a developing low pressure during Tuesday night into Wednesday 5th October. The frontal bands of rain will affect western and southwestern Scotland again, an area that has already seen heavy rain this week. This is already putting a strain on railway services with speed restrictions. There is a lot of surface water and minor flooding is occurring. There will be more heavy rain for the Central Belt, southern Scotland, Cumbria and Wales.
In addition, there are still concerns that “There still remains a small chance of notably stronger winds in the warning area though most likely is a windy period typical for the time of year.”MO
Some disruption is possible from this low pressure over the UK during Wednesday morning and there are rain and wind warnings from the UK Met Office. The winds might not amount to much in the warned area but as the frontal band moves across England later on Wednesday morning, there is a signal for line convection and fresh to strong SW winds ahead of this band. Gusts of 50+mph are also showing on the UKV which would bring a windy lunchtime period for East Anglia, London and Southeast England. And after fine, mild weather in the southeast, the frontal band with ongoing line convection would bring a sudden spell of torrential rain with very gusty conditions. This line working its way across Wales then England on Wednesday could bring difficult conditions on the roads, for a short but significant time. Colder but clearer weather will follow the frontal band with a scattering of sharp blustery showers but good sunny spells.
Northern Europe, including the UK, is going to see a lot of windy weather with frontal bands of heavy rain moving from west to east. There are already warnings linked to a midweek low pressure There had been uncertainty around the forecast, was it going to develop and deepen with severe gales for the UK by Wednesday morning? This looks unlikely now with a flatter wave moving through. However, this low should continue to deepen as it moves closer to Norway and up through Lapland by Thursday. There are various yellow wind warnings over Norway and more appear around the Baltic Sea. The air is still mild so the precipitation stays as rain. Ferry services may be affected across the North Sea and around Scandinavia with a surge of water up the Gulf of Bothnia between Sweden and Finland.
It has been very hot in the eastern Mediterranean with two high temperature records being broken at the start of October. Southern Turkey saw a high of 41.2C at Antalya Airport which provisionally beats the Turkey October record from 1930. Hot air had been flowing north from Africa and Cyprus also saw its highest October temperature with 41.2C at Alonoudi (106F). However, the weather changed by the end of the weekend as a cold front swept in from the west.
Over this week the temperatures fall away, from 30C down to the mid 20sC with the risk of showers. Much of central and southern Europe will have a settled spell of weather this week with high pressure stretching across many parts. Southwestern Iberia remained very warm with temperatures in the Algarve and southwestern Spain just reaching the low 30sC
There will be heavy showers and thunderstorms over the Balearic Islands by Thursday and then affecting eastern mainland Spain by Friday. These should have faded by Sunday. The Canary Islands and Iberian Peninsula have seen a lot of dust in the atmosphere this week.
The National Hurricane Centre has had a fraught time in recent weeks with Major Hurricane Ian striking Florida and causing catastrophic damage and a loss of life, even after a strong forecast and warnings. Hurricane Orlene hit the southwest coast of Mexico on Monday 3rd with heavy rainfall.
Parts of southwest and western Florida are still a disaster zone and will be for a while yet. The sea surge and flood waters reached far inland with heavy rain and after moving across Florida, Ian then hit the east coast in South Carolina. There was further flooding here and high waters along the coasts.
Further north, into the mid-Atlantic and New England region there has been heavy rain, coastal flooding and rough seas along the coasts.
“A stubborn area of low pressure will keep conditions inclement for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with rain showers and gusty winds through Wednesday. Meanwhile, locally heavy to excessive rain is possible across the Four Corners region over the next couple of days.” NWS
This has been affecting New York with heavy rain, blustery winds and lower temperatures. The depressing rain and grey skies have been around for days. The weather improves with sunny spells and some warmth but there will be cooler nights by the weekend.
Here in the UK, if you are travelling overnight or on Wednesday it will be worth keeping an eye on the radar, especially if the line of heavy downpours does develop. Western Scotland has already seen high rainfall totals. Welcome rain but quite a change as autumn truly takes hold.