Set of fronts moving southeast will introduce more comfortable less humid conditions for all, while temperatures will drop towards average to end week into the weekend. Perhaps turning hotter next week and with high pressure in charge, no rain for much of England & Wales.
It’s been very warm and humid across many parts since the beginning of the week, thanks to a long-draw southwesterly flow bringing tropical air from the sub-tropical Atlantic. However, a cold front slipping down from the northwest will introduce less humid air through the day, while an occluded front following the cold front will introduce a cooler airmass from the northwest, with a gradual drop in temperature into the weekend, with temperatures returning to near average values in the south, perhaps a little below in the far north.
However, with high pressure building in from the west through the weekend and lingering across the south next week, we will see temperatures on the rise again next week, likely reaching the high twenties across southern and eastern England, perhaps low thirties. So we could see heatwave conditions met, but not the extreme heat we saw on the 18th and 19th July. But of concern is that there is likely to be no measurable rain for large parts of England and Wales after today until at least late next week, with high pressure taking charge. So, we are likely to see little or no rain in the south for the first half of August. This will worsen the drought situation gripping many parts of the south and east of England.
High pressure builds in this weekend and lingers through much of next week
00z GFS showing no measurable rain for next 10 days across much of England and east Wales, worsening drought conditions.
Credit: wxcharts.com
Back to today, a weakening cold front bringing a band of rain, lying from the Humber to Severn Estuary at breakfast time, will clear southeast across southern England through this morning and early afternoon. Some warm sunshine developing after a cloudy start ahead of the front across southern areas this morning and early afternoon. Band of patchy light rain or drizzle along the front as it clears. Sunnier but less humid conditions following from the north, becoming very warm in the sunshine once the front clears across SE England and East Anglia – perhaps reaching 28C, patchy cloud with showers for Scotland, N. Ireland and northern England.
Not as warm and humid tonight, last night’s temperatures didn’t fall below 19C across Lincolnshire and Norfolk. England and Wales will remain mostly dry, but Scotland and N. Ireland will see some showery outbreaks of rain in places.
Thursday and Friday will be very similar weatherwise. Dry and sunny across the south, scattered showers and sunny spells for the north. Temperatures a little below average across Scotland and N. Ireland as cooler airmass moves in here, but still warm in the south, temperatures reaching 23-26C. Nights will be cooler everywhere, even chilly in the far north.
High pressure will build in from the west across England and Wales over the weekend, so here it will be mostly dry and sunny by day, warm too but comfortable with low humidity, temperatures reaching the low to mid-twenties Celsius, with sleeping more easy at night too. Scotland will be more changeable at the mercy of Atlantic frontal systems passing through here, so often cloudy and windy here, spells of rain at times, turning more humid on Sunday too.
00z GFS showing potential for heatwave conditions next week, with 3 days or more of high 20s or low 30s in S England
High pressure looks to linger across the south through much of next week too, so continuing dry and settled across England and Wales, with possibly no measurable rain on the horizon for the next 7-10 days for parts of southern and eastern England – where rain is most desperately needed. It also looks to turn increasingly hot too through the week, with some models, such as the American GFS, indicating temperatures rising into the low to mid 30s Celsius in the far south. Though other models are quite a bit lower with temperatures, 30C maxes mid-week. Scotland and N. Ireland always prone to Atlantic systems throughout, so here will see unsettled and windy conditions at times, with spells of rain moving through, but also some drier interludes.