The weather is set to be generally settled and mild for most of the rest of this week, but with potential for a temporary interruption on Friday and Saturday with a low pressure system moving in from the west.
The weather is set to be settled and mild for most of the rest of this week, but with potential for a temporary interruption on Friday and Saturday with a low pressure system moving in from the west. Even then, there is some uncertainty over whether it will affect the whole of the UK or just the north. From Sunday onwards, high pressure will return, though temperatures into next week will probably be rather down on those of this week.
At present we have a band of cloud over much of southern Scotland and the far north of England, which is producing some light rain and drizzle, mainly over and to the west of high ground. To both the north and south of this, many areas, particularly in the east, have plenty of sunshine.
During the rest of today, the band of cloud, with persistent light rain or drizzle for western areas, will move slowly southwards, clearing Scotland but moving into the whole of Wales, the Midlands, Norfolk and northern England by evening. Eastern Scotland will become sunny, but there will be more cloud for Northern Ireland and for western Scotland. Southern England will generally be sunny and dry throughout the day, though with some cloud patches especially near the English Channel coast and in the west.
It will be a mild day over England and Wales with highs of 14 to 16C widespread, and locally 17C around the London area, though parts of west Wales and the far north of England may reach only 12 or 13C. To the north of the weak frontal system, it will be cooler in Scotland and Northern Ireland, but still no cooler than average for the time of year, with highs between 9 and 12C.
As the front continues to progress slowly southwards through England and Wales overnight, it will be a very mild night with temperatures not falling below 10C in many parts of central and southern England. However, a ground frost will be quite widespread in inland parts of Scotland, with temperatures falling to between 0 and 3C, and an air frost in the prone frost hollows.
The frontal system will stall over much of central and southern England and south Wales tomorrow, giving a cloudy day with some light rain or drizzle, particularly to the west of high ground, but with some sunshine persisting in the far south-east of England. Elsewhere, it will be a generally dry day apart from some light showers in Cumbria and western Scotland, and eastern areas will again have plenty of sunshine, but it will tend to cloud over from the west during the afternoon. Southern England will again be warm for the time of year with highs between 13 and 15C, but it will be cooler further north with highs mostly between 8 and 11C.
There will again be a ground frost in many places on Wednesday night, but cloud cover in central and southern England will give a mild night.
Thursday looks set to be another dry quiet day for most, with the weak frontal system moving slowly northwards again but no rain left on the system, except over high ground in the west. It will brighten up in central and southern parts of England, but it will be cloudier in western Scotland, Northern Ireland and north-west England.
There is a lot of uncertainty over Friday and Saturday - the GFS model has a depression moving over the far north of Scotland bringing rain mainly to the far north-west of Britain, but the UKMO, UKV and ECMWF models have the low moving across central and northern Britain, bringing rain more widely. The second scenario currently looks more likely as it has stronger overall support. Thus, it looks set to become wetter through Friday and into Saturday for most, with a belt of rain moving eastwards followed by brighter weather with showers.
However, all of the model outputs are agreed that by Sunday high pressure will return, bringing dry weather and variable amounts of cloud but most places see at least some sunshine. It may turn colder with frost and fog developing more widely at night.