Changes afoot as high pressure begins to take hold

Firstly and on a somewhat personal note, can I welcome back the return of Ian Simpson and his monthly forecasts, for whom I have been deputising for the past few months. Not the easiest of jobs made more difficult at the moment with the models struggling to cope, but good luck Ian, all the same.

The very cool, wet May has already been well documented, but it looks as though the end of the month, which comprises the late spring bank holiday, will end on a finer, drier, much warmer note. It'll take a few days, though, for temperatures to recover, and cloud amounts will vary for a time, but the change will be welcomed by farmers and growers who were 'screaming' for rain only just a month ago.

For today though, it's the same old story, with North East England and much of East Scotland, particularly the South East beginning wet. This'll move South through the morning to affect the eastern half of England particularly but quickly break up into patchy rain. Parts of the Midlands and South have begun fine with some sunshine, but for most, it'll end up another day of sunny intervals and scattered showers. Some of the showers will be heavy, giving local hail and thunder, but in the West, there should be fewer showers and more in the way of sunny intervals with varying amounts of cloud. Northern Ireland will probably see the best of the weather today. But in the far South West, you'll see more cloud, with the Isles of Scilly and the Channel Islands seeing some light patchy rain.

It continues cool for late May, with a North or North Westerly wind feeling chilly, especially in the East. As a result, temperatures will struggle In the far North and towards North Sea coasts to get much above 10 to 12C, with 13 to 16C more likely elsewhere still well below the average for the time of year, despite lighter breezes across Northern Ireland and towards the South West.

Eastern areas, in particular, see further showers into the evening in a North or North Westerly breeze. Some could still be heavy at first before they fade away after dark, allowing clear intervals to develop, but it'll remain cloudy with further patchy light rain in the far South West. Northern and eastern parts see areas of mist and very low cloud 'rolling-in' overnight, but where it stays clear, it'll turn quite chilly. A frost seems unlikely in all but a few vulnerable rural 'hollows', with the lowest temperatures mostly in the range of 4 to 8C.

A steady rise in pressure brings an improvement by Thursday to finer, drier weather as we approach the bank holiday. But there'll be a few exceptions as Northern Ireland, particularly Tyrone and Fermanagh, see cloud moving in, with the far South West remaining cloudy with patchy light rain. The very low cloud and mist across some northern and eastern areas will lift and clear through the morning, leaving most parts with warm sunny spells in mostly light breezes. As a result, temperatures respond reaching 19 or 20C where you see the best of the sunshine in the South, but 15 to 18C more generally, although some North Sea coasts may struggle to get above a chilly 12 or 13C.

Northern Ireland, the South West and the far West remain cloudy into the evening and after dark, with further patchy, mostly light rain. But as pressure continues to build, an anticyclone forming in the North Sea will become the dominant feature. With largely clear skies towards dusk, most parts see a dry, moonlit night. Light winds allow mist and patchy fog to form in rural areas by dawn, but this'll be short-lived, soon dispersing after sunrise. It'll also turn a little chilly in places, but a frost is again unlikely, with lowest temperatures mostly between 5 and 9C.