24.5C at Kew Gardens on Tuesday, could be warmer today. The March UK record is 25.6C from 1968 but the heat peaks midweek and Easter weekend looks decidedly chilly with some snow by Monday.
The start of this week has been very warm and on Tuesday the UK saw its warmest March day in over 50 years. We don’t often see over 24C in March but yesterday, 30th, Kew Gardens reached 24.5C. The March UK record is 25.6C from 1968 and today could see closer to that. Jersey smashed their March record on Tuesday and northern France beat regional March records too.
“The Maison St Louis observatory recorded its highest March air temperature since records began in 1894, with the value soaring to 22.9°C late [this] afternoon.” Jersey Met
This will be the last day of the very warm air. SW Britain will manage up to 20C tomorrow but London will feel very different. By Easter weekend, there could be snow in places. That is not a joke, we are talking about the UK weather here.
Even the diurnal range has been dramatic from near zero to start with on Tuesday and then up into the low 20sC whereas today many areas start off warmer. A few parts of southern England are seeing a cool start after clear skies with some early mistiness. It is also cooler further north but the persistent rain over NW Scotland is finally shifting today. It has been raining for days for the Highlands and Western Isles with some very high tides.
This frontal rain is important for the distinct change that we will see with our weather, to colder conditions later on this week. This waving front is the boundary between colder air to the north and the current very warm air over much of the UK. The front will wave about and take its time to nudge southwards but the drop in temperatures and veer to a chilly NE wind will hit you when it comes. Much of Scotland will feel that by teatime today, just into Northern Ireland later and NE England by this evening.
South of the surface front there are very light winds, a slight southerly flow with high pressure over central Europe. With another sunny, very warm, spring day just cooler for windward coasts. There is some high cloud about, a change from yesterday’s clear skies with low cloud and sea fog through the western English Channel to Pembrokeshire.
Temperatures today Leeds, Birmingham and Manchester 21C (70F). Norwich and Cambridge around 23C. Bristol and Cardiff 20C with Southampton around 18C in the breeze off the sea. Central and west London again look likely to reach at least 24C, as could a few spots into East Anglia.
Air quality suffers in these stagnant conditions “moderate levels of air quality today with the possibility of High levels around urban areas” DEFRA. Tomorrow this will continue for SW England in particular. It will be southwest England which holds onto some warmth for Thursday, perhaps also SW Wales and Hampshire, sheltered from the brisk cooler east wind which aids the colder shift.
The change
The frontal rain is over northern and western Scotland this morning and into western counties of Northern Ireland. To the north of the front, there is a colder, brisk NE wind. To the south, there is already milky altostratus over southern Scotland and more of Northern Ireland, but these areas are still in the warm air and should see temperatures in the mid to high teens by lunchtime. The thicker cloud, cooler air and patchy rain edge southwards as the temperatures fall across Scotland. For southern Britain inland, it stays warm into the evening. The rain fades, there will be a lot of dry weather over the next few days but as the wind turns to the NE low cloud, haar and fret seep in from the North Sea. This will bring a grey much cooler start for eastern England with a nippy wind. For Scotland, there will be sunshine with a frost inland for the north and temperatures around 9C at best. Northern Ireland stays around 12C but will be dry and could go higher in sunny spells away from east coast. For eastern England including London with the east wind down the Thames, it will be nearer 10 to 16C.
It gets colder for the long weekend. High pressure is toppling over from Iceland, so a shift in our flow away from the warm continental air to a cold Arctic flow. There will be frosts by night, so gardeners take note. A lot of dry weather although the east coast of Britain could seem damp at times. But later Easter Sunday a cold front approaches from the north which will bring even colder air and snow. The charts are showing a screaming northerly, significant snowfall for the highlands of northern Scotland and hail, sleet and snow showers reaching areas exposed to the northerly flow. A vicious wind for Easter Monday, a significant wind chill. Keep your winter clothes to hand.