It will be very mild for late February over the next few days, perhaps 17C on Wednesday in the SE. More rain for northern and western areas tomorrow and Wednesday could exacerbate flooding risk. Drier and settled later in the week.
It felt rather mild over the weekend, spring-like for those lucky to see some sunshine. Sunday saw the highest temperature of the year so far, reaching 15.9C at Weybourne in Norfolk. It will continue rather mild for late February throughout the week; in fact, on Tuesday and Wednesday, we could see temperatures reach 17-18C across the southeast – which is exceptionally mild for the time of year. Although it will stay mostly dry, like the weekend, towards the east over the next few days, more rain is on its way for many northern and western areas after a wet weekend. This further rain will exacerbate the risk of flooding in these areas after days of rain falling on already saturated ground and into already high rivers. The good news is, high pressure will extend its influence further north from Thursday, so it will turn drier across most of Britain to end the week and through the weekend.
For now, a cloudy start across central and eastern areas, with a band of rain along a cold front lying between NE England, through the Midlands down and towards Dorset and Somerset at breakfast time. Some early brightness ahead of the rain across SE England, but you may notice a strange hue to the sun, thanks to Saharan dust in the atmosphere – spreading north across Western Europe today.
Saharan dust plume spreading north across mainland Britain today, highest dust load towards the southeast:
The rain band will continue eastwards across eastern England through the morning and early afternoon, tending to turn more patchy as the front weakens, the rain probably not clearing the far SE of England and East Anglia until late afternoon. Brightening up and turning drier from the west this afternoon otherwise.
Further west, SW England, Wales, Midlands, northern England, Northern Ireland and Scotland, brightening up after any early cloud clears, with plenty of sunshine developing and most areas staying dry. Just a few showers affecting NW Scotland.
With the cold front clearing east, it's not as mild as yesterday, but still well above average today for late February, temperatures reaching 10-12C generally, 13-14C towards the southeast.
Front clearing SE England this evening, taking away the cloudy skies here, which will leave most areas with clear skies and dry for much of the night. Chillier than recent nights, temperatures falling to mid-to-low single figures, perhaps low enough for a touch of ground frost in the north. However, winds will strengthen with cloud and rain spreading across N. Ireland, then Scotland, Cumbria, Wales and far SW of England by the end of the night. Snow over the highest ground of Scotland.
Slow-moving area of low pressure over the Atlantic and slow-moving waving frontal system across the north and west will bring pulses of rain north through much Tuesday across Scotland, parts of NW England, N. Ireland, north and west Wales. Rain will be locally heavy, mainly over higher ground and windward slopes.
Dry and bright or sunny further east across the Midlands, southern and eastern England. Brisk southerly winds, reaching gale force through the Irish Sea and western Scotland, will bring a relatively mild day for all, temperatures reaching 11-13C widely, perhaps 14-15C across SE England with sunshine.
Further rain at times on Wednesday for parts of Scotland, northern England, N. Ireland, Wales and far SW of England, dry and bright across much of central, southern and eastern England. Also, NE Scotland could escape with a mostly dry and bright day. With southwesterly wind bringing air from as far south as the Canary Islands, it will be exceptionally mild in the southeast, with temperatures perhaps reaching 17C with the help of any sunshine. Rather mild elsewhere, too, temperatures reaching 10-14C.
High pressure will start to build north on Thursday and Friday, so the very mild flow will be cut-off – so not quite so mild, but still on the mild side for late February. Westerly breeze on Thursday will feed in some scattered showers across western areas, eastern parts dry and sunny. The breeze will ease on Friday, as high pressure builds further north, most will be dry, northern areas likely cloudier – cloud perhaps thick enough across western Scotland for some drizzle, southern areas bright or sunny.
The weekend, for now, looks to remain mostly dry and settled with light winds, thanks to high pressure building on top of the UK. Cloud amounts variable, but there should be spells of sunshine for most, where skies clear at night, there will be a risk of frost.