A quiet weekend, milder from the south but with air quality issues

A nippy start this morning with some parts of southern Britain down below zero. There is fog about, dense in places and a Met Office fog warning. Other areas have more cloud and so no frost.  During the weekend there will be a lot of dry, settled weather about across the UK with just narrow bands of rain interrupting that from fading fronts. Milder air will spill up from the south slowly so for Saturday it will be inland parts of northern Britain and northern counties of Northern Ireland with a bit of frost and fog. The cold air holds on for northern Scotland during Saturday night whilst most of the UK will be mild again.

So, a good deal of fair weather to get out for a walk or exercise. Mostly light winds but air pollution levels will rise. The air is slow moving, slowly descending under the high pressure and there are concerns about the air quality particularly for eastern and southern England. And as if we don’t have enough health advice at the moment, these air pollution episodes also have recommended actions and health messages.

Today

The clear skies over a portion of Britain have allowed the temperatures to fall but there is still an old front over the far SE, bringing some patchy rain to Kent, Sussex and the Channel Islands. It stays cloudy over SE England with dampness through the English Channel. There will be bright or sunny spells inland this morning, but the cloud increases this afternoon and evening over SE Britain, pushing up into the Midlands and east Wales. Further north there is more frontal cloud, and it is not as cold as southern Britain. The more defined frontal band keeps rain for western Scotland and along the Great Glen throughout the day. There is also more cloud and dampness over southern Scotland, northern England this morning but it lifts and brightens away from Irish Sea coasts. There is hardly any breeze across the UK but quite different scenes from place to place with Bright sunshine and the crisp frost to gloomy, grey dampness. Coastal areas will be around 9c, inland 7c although the fog or low cloud linger it will feel cold at only 5C. Kent will be milder, still managing to stay the other side of this week’s main front.

This evening everything begins to edge northwards with a warm front. The flow shifts to the east or southeast.

Milder on Saturday for southern Britain around 9 to 12C. Cloudy for England and Wales, although Kent could see clearer skies in the afternoon and sunshine. Northern Ireland around 7 to 9C with increasing cloud after a bright start but it will be dry. Some early fog and frost inland further north, with dense, persistent fog a risk.  Scotland will be sunny after a chilly start and although northern England will see increasing cloud it is still a fine day.  

During the weekend our weather is anchored by high pressure over Scandinavia and low pressures near to Portugal, Spain and the western Mediterranean. There are weather warnings for heavy rain and stormy conditions for coastal areas there.

 There is a lot of uncertainty for next week’s forecast. High pressure looks to builds towards the UK to end the weekend, but models vary about whether it will be able to keep the settled weather going, even on Monday with larger variations by next Friday.