By Jo Farrow
Issued: 16th September 2020 09:11
Updated: 16th September 2020 09:17
The heat is fading but plenty of fine, yet fresher, weather this week
Kent saw 31.3C yesterday as the heat continued. With a northeast wind off the sea today it won’t feel quite as hot for eastern Britain right down to the north Kent coast. The peak of the heat will be for central southern England, through Dorset and the Cotswolds with south Devon and south Wales also doing well, up into the mid/high 20sC. East Anglia and SE England will still be warm in the 20sC, with London still managing 27C or 28C. Further north, particularly in the east or NE breeze, it is going to feel much fresher (cold really by comparison). Tomorrow sees the temperatures fall further with 21C the UK maximum seen in SW England, Co. Tyrone and the Moray coast as the winds shift. There will also be some nippy nights so a change after this mid-September heat.
High pressure is building in from the north so there will be a lot of settled weather for the UK. Today a bit more cloud and a little patchy rain from this at times although most places stay dry. The radar this morning shows a band of light rain over a central swathe of Scotland this morning (from a weak cold front) and more showery bursts for SE England, both of these fade. There could be a few showery bursts this evening as the cold front reaches the Thames Estuary and blustery winds.
Tomorrow there will be plenty of sunshine, especially for central and eastern Britain. Early cloud over Wales and western England should shift, Northern Ireland keeps some cloud but will be bright and it will be more patchy over Scotland. But still a fine dry day on Thursday. The rest of the week is similar, quiet, not as warm until a cluster of heavy showers move up from the English Channel later on Saturday (linked to Low1)
The synoptic chart is full of September gems. Hurricane Paulette is hurrying her way NE but is forecast to take a nose dive southwards before the Azores. It is already losing its tropical characteristics. You can see the high pressure over the UK bringing us the settled conditions but also a change in wind direction and the Finnish Storm (Low2) which will head into NE Russia. As other parts of Europe such as France and the Netherlands have seen record breaking September heat earlier this week, Finland is facing its strongest windstorm this year tonight. With trees in full leaf, large waves off the Bothnian Sea and some wild conditions to come.
That leaves Low 1 which has been influencing our UK weather, keeping western areas a bit more unsettled in the first part of the week but it has been retreating southwards, almost reversing away in a slightly odd manner. It has been highlighted with a yellow cross (a disturbance) on the NHC Tropical weather outlook. It is over warmer waters so “A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far north-eastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics while it moves south-eastward and eastward. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. “
Hurricane Sally has been crawling along in the Gulf of Mexico, now a Cat 2 storm and will make landfall today. There are hurricane warnings for Mississippi, Alabama and Florida panhandle with storm surge warnings and the risk of flash flooding as this slow-moving storm dumps huge amounts of rainfall.
…4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of south-eastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, central and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas. NHC
Three hurricanes currently in the Atlantic with only Wilfred left as a name on the list. What happens next?