Heat building - But not before a northwestern soaking
The weather has thrown up two things to focus on during the coming hours and days. First the rain across the north and especially northwest of the UK, with some heavy, persistent downpours today in western Scotland in particular. Second, the build of heat later this week from the south, with temperatures forecast to rise into the mid-thirties, for some at least, by Friday.
As is so often the case - the further southeast you are, the more likely you are to see the hottest temperatures later in the week. And on the flip side of that, it's those further northwest who'll be seeing the bulk of the rain today and tomorrow, with more likely to arrive into the far northwest later in the week too.
There are weather warnings issued by the Met Office today for the rain in western Scotland. A look at the forecast rainfall totals tells you why, with some places liable to see more than 90mm of rain.
The wet weather moved across Ireland overnight, arriving Wales, Northwest England and Western Scotland during the early hours. The heaviest bursts are affecting the far northwest of England and up through Scotland, with lighter more patchy rain moving through the rest of Northern England, Wales and affecting parts of the Midlands this morning too. You can track the latest movement of the wet weather on the radar.
Those further southeast will miss out on the action today, with breaks in the cloud giving some long sunny spells. Temperatures for southern and central England will rise into the low-twenties, elsewhere the mid-high teens.
This evening the rain in the west of Scotland will begin to die out as the front bringing it moves away. Some heavier outbreaks will journey south into northwest England and North Wales overnight though, with some showery bits and pieces of rain leftover to the north of those. Wednesday then brings another day of split-weather. Those in the west and north will see some further spells of showery rain at times, whereas those further southeast will see sunny spells and a rise in temperatures. Highs into the afternoon in eastern and southeast England will reach up into the mid-twenties, perhaps also reaching the low-twenties into eastern Scotland and also central England. Elsewhere, the high teens will be about your lot.
By Thursday most of the wet weather should have cleared, with perhaps just the odd spit and spot over the higher ground of western England and Wales, with the chance of some grazing into the very far northwest of Scotland. There will be a fair bit of cloud around though, especially through central and southern Britain with a weak front overhead. Where the sun can come out though, it'll be another very warm day with highs peaking into the mid or high twenties.
There's some uncertainty but there is very likely to be a lot more sunshine come Friday. That will allow those temperatures to really shoot up - probably into the mid-thirties or so in the south and southeast with much of the rest of the country comfortably into the mid-twenties.
The far west and northwest won't fare quite so well though, with some heavy, potentially thundery rain moving up through Ireland before affecting western and maybe central Scotland later in the day.
Into the weekend, fresher air is likely to try to move down from the northwest but there are some question marks as to how far southeast it'll reach. So, those further southeast will be most likely to continue to see those hot temperatures. Many parts will be dry with long spells of sunshine, although there is the risk of some thundery downpours in places.