A Tropical Air Mass But Definitely Not Tropical Weather

We currently have a partially 'blocked' situation that can make precise forecasting a little difficult. But one thing we can be sure about is that most parts will have a good deal of cloud today. The air mass across the country at present though is of tropical maritime origin, so it'll be quite warm particularly where you see any brightness. But this will be limited.

Satellite image from earlier this morning.

Monday morning sees a good deal of grey, misty weather across the country, with some hill and coastal fog. There's a fair amount of dry weather in quite humid conditions, but also patchy mostly light rain and drizzle. Through the morning the mist will lift except along exposed coasts and hills, with some parts brightening up. Otherwise, there'll be little change. Later, Northern Ireland and West Scotland may see some heavier bursts of rain, as a cold front approaches from the West.

It continues mostly cloudy into the afternoon, with further patchy drizzle. A few bright spells are expected though. With sheltered parts of East Wales and central southern England perhaps seeing a few sunny intervals. Meanwhile, Northern Ireland and North and West Scotland become wet, with the odd sharp shower breaking out over England and Wales later. Although most parts will be dry.

A light or moderate South or South West wind will become fresh, locally strong over exposed parts of Northern Ireland and North West Scotland. There'll be a somewhat muggy feel over England and Wales, with temperatures reaching 18 to 20C but 22 to 24C in the brighter spots. Across Scotland and Northern Ireland however, 16 to 19C is more likely.

The South and East of Scotland turn wet during the evening, with North West England and the North and West of Wales joining in overnight. The rain will be heavy in places, making it misty with some hill and coastal fog, before clearing from most of Northern Ireland and North and West Scotland by morning. Remaining parts of England and Wales remain rather cloudy. But apart from patchy drizzle and the odd shower, it should be mainly dry, with skies perhaps breaking at times in the East and South.

It'll remain humid over England and Wales in a South or South Westerly breeze, with temperatures falling no lower than 13 to 16C. Across Scotland and Northern Ireland, it'll turn fresher in a more noticeable locally strong South West wind. Lowest temperatures here mostly in the range 8 to 11C.

Tuesday sees Scotland and Northern Ireland brighter, with a mixture of sunny intervals and showers most frequent in the North and West. England and Wales stay rather cloudy with outbreaks of rain across northern England and Wales, eventually spreading to most parts through the day. Brighter weather should follow, probably giving Wales and much of northern England some sunshine to end the day.

A moderate or fresh South West wind will be strong over exposed parts of Northern Ireland and North West Scotland where gales are possible. It'll continue humid in the East and South with top temperatures 19 to 21C, but it'll be cooler and fresher elsewhere, where 13 to 16C is more likely.

After some rain across the South and East into the evening, it'll turn drier but cooler and fresher overnight. Skies will then break, with clear intervals developing in central and eastern areas. A West or South West wind, however, will continue to bring a scattering of blustery showers, mostly to Northern Ireland and the North and West. It may feel chillier in the wind by morning., but temperatures shouldn't fall below 6 to 8C in rural areas and 9 to 11C in towns and cities.