A fine weekend once today's rain clears

There is a lovely start to the day over SE Britain, with clear blue skies and sunshine. The Bristol Balloon festival has started and managed to get over 100 balloons up this morning. Winds will be picking up today but as pressure rises this weekend, Sunday morning will have very light winds.

Across northern and western parts of Britain and Northern Ireland, it is cloudy, blustery and damp with heavier rain over Aberdeenshire and western fringes. 

Today we are in a brisk SW flow with weather fronts trailing across the UK, moving slowly eastwards. These have already brought rain, as seen on the radar and will reach SE England tonight. The rain does become patchy during the day with heavier showery bits over Wales Devon and Cornwall, Northern Ireland and Scotland but particularly NW England. Eastern Scotland could fair a bit better along with NE England. The fresh SW winds will result in cloud breaking up to the lee of high ground, and eastern Britain will see sunny spells in these spots, once the main frontal band moves through, heading across the Midlands and Yorkshire early afternoon. SE England and East Anglia just hold onto the fine weather and sunshine, a complete change from all that rain earlier in the week.

The highest temperatures today will be for eastern Britain, around 20 to 23C in the sunshine and shelter of high ground. Elsewhere we will see 15 to 19C, depending on cloud cover and when it rains with the brisk wind off the sea. Later today the winds begin to veer to the NW as occluding fronts push into NW Scotland.

Overnight, the cloud and patchy rain from the main frontal bands will sink over SE Britain, with a few clear spells and cooler conditions following from the north. There will still be patchy rain about and a showery band with more cloud moving down through Northern Ireland and Scotland. This will fizzle away over northern England, north Wales and the Midlands on Saturday morning.

Pressure will be rising at the weekend, so winds will be lighter but from the W/NW. Saturday will feel a bit cooler for eastern areas and could see a scattering of showers. Other areas stay bright and mostly dry with okay weekend weather.

Saturday night looks clear and dry for most if you are going to try looking at the skies again. Did anyone catch a shooting star last night as we are entering Perseid Meteor shower time of the year?  For much of Sunday, there will be more fine weather about with sunny spells, very light winds and temperatures in the high teens.

For the start of the new working week, we have squabble between the weekend high pressure and a low pressure heading in from the Atlantic. The low tries to give the slow moving steady high a nudge out of the way. This may not quite work, and it could be that the low with its cloud and rain brushes over Northern Ireland and Scotland, maybe Wales but doesn’t reach England. There is low confidence here as the main area of rain could reach further east and bring another wet day to central Britain. Whatever, the low will, however, pull up a brisk southerly flow and some warmer air.

By Tuesday there is real heat building over the low countries, and a thundery low could move up from the continent bringing hefty downpours to SE Britain. Scotland and Ireland look fine and dry by then.

Outlook

Temperatures are still only peaking in the low 20s Celsius. That still gives a warm day with strong sunshine, but there still isn’t any sign of real summer heat building. August can bring temperatures well up into the 30s with the all-time UK record being 38.5C back in 2003. I’ve already been asked if we are going to get an Indian summer, no answer there I’m afraid, it is too far ahead.

For the rest of the school holidays, you can look at the themes and hints in the Netweather Month ahead forecast. Although Scottish families are now readying themselves for Back to School, so there is bound to be a glorious spell of weather coming up, at least in the north.

Bristol Balloon Festival 10-14th August 2017