A look ahead to what the 2015 Easter weekend can throw at us, which can vary greatly. And remember, don't believe the hype.
After the long winter run post-Christmas, Easter is a long awaited break for many with an extended weekend or two weeks off school. There are already some signs that Spring is just around the corner and with longer days, Easter can offer hope of better weather holiday time.
Easters past
However, Easter can of course move dates and throw up very different extremes of weather. In 2008 Easter Sunday was on March 23rd and in 2011, it was on April 24th. Even climatologically that is a whole month’s difference, with plenty more daylight (and so warmth) available by the end of April compared to the end of March
At the end of March in 2013 it was the coldest Easter day ever as Braemar in NE Scotland recorded -12.5C. Most parts of the UK haven’t seen that low all winter, with only the Highlands getting low this year. 2013 had seen late wintry weather with March being a cold month and snowfall causing disruption in spring that year. Easter 2012 it rained a lot on Bank holiday Monday.
With a later Easter there can be lovely spring warmth and sunshine. The warmest ever Easter was in 2011 on April 23rd when Wisley in Surrey reached a cosy 27.8C (82F). Average temperatures would have been around 15C but it was a very warm month, see image.
Why does the date of Easter vary so much?
Easter is the Christian celebration of the death, burial and resurrection of Jesus Christ, which happened after Jewish Passover. Passover is determined by the cycles of the sun and moon and so is a moveable feast. Easter is always the Sunday immediately after the Paschal (Passover) Full Moon. The Paschal Full Moon comes from approximate full moon dates worked out 100s of years ago and set down in Ecclesiastical tables. This full moon can vary a little from an actual full moon, sometimes by a day or two but is the 1st Full moon from the tables after March 20th which can be up to 29 days later, leading to the following Sunday date for Easter Day.
Easter sayings
There is a German proverb which says "Green Christmas, white Easter"!! So if that extends off mainland Europe I think most of us are in for snow, sleet or maybe just frost. From Corsica, "Christmas on the balcony, Easter by the fire" a Mediterranean take on the potential contrasts. The Supermarkets may not want anything too warm which could melt the multitude of chocolate egss which are already lining their shelves. A cold spell before Easter and snowfalls are unwelcome by sheep farmers with new lambs being born.
This year, hottest ever Easter?
We are still 10 days away from Good Friday. I’m dismayed at the numerous links and shares of one tabloid’s claim of hottest ever Easter, temperatures rocket to 80F over a month in advance. The record was 82F FYI, see above. So the story is the usual pattern of; shout randomly about extreme weather, 100 days of snow, record breaking heat, killer floods etc. a month or so before hand regardless of any science. IF it comes off, whoopeydoo for that newspaper. If not, then blame others, usually the Met Office. Public perception is that weather forecasters SAID , “it was going to be really hot at Easter” but in fact it is just the Express, again
The pattern still looks rather variable with a westerly flow from the Atlantic. There are signs of high pressure trying to build into southern Britain with some warmth and northern parts staying more unsettled with temperatures around average or below. Often blustery, with bands of rain interrupted by fine, sunny spells, a bit like this week. To break a record, you would need to have a longer dry, sunny warm spell over say 5 days, to heat up the cool ground. Also the UK record was set late in April; this Easter is earlier in April with much less solar radiation available due to the shorter days. At this range any forecast would have low confidence. The westerly flow looks quite set but could have interruptions of high pressure bringing dry, sunny spells and warm sunshine for one day but it looks like weather fronts will still move in the next day over N.Ireland and Scotland, probably Wales and W.Britain and bring cooler breezes. Nothing looks exceptionally warm but there still should be pleasant spring sunshine and one or two nice days out of the 4. If the rain bands come at night that would be a bonus, just too far off at the moment.
So looking rather mixed at this stage, further updates here.
