Feb Thurs 20th
Somerset continues to have the highest level of flood warning from the Environment Agency as the Somerset Levels see further river flooding. Many counties of southern England are still at medium risk of further flooding over the next 3 days due to high ground water levels, although river levels for the Severn and the Thames are now receding.
There are also flood warnings in Scotland, for Tayside (which has seen problems already this winter) and also in the Borders.
Netweather radar from Thurs am, cold front clearing over SE England.
So what about the weather. This week has seen some lulls, a welcome change from last week’s pattern of storm after storm. Some of the wettest weather has gone over NW Britain instead. Showers do continue to feed in over southern Britain for the next few days particularly for Cornwall and Devon and along the Channel coasts but there are dry intervals. Things turn damp Saturday night into Sunday but the heavy rain affecting northern parts will only reach SW England Sunday night (SW) being much lighter over the SE into Monday. There could be more wet weather Monday night into Tuesday. However it looks like the worst of the rain will be for NW Britain over the weekend into start of next week, so more transient flooding may affect other areas of the UK as well.
For the last week in February, there are concerns for SW Britain, so Somerset and the River Severn again as this part of the UK looks set for more heavy rain, with more low pressure systems coming in from the Atlantic. This, of course, brings more risk of gales and so the risk of coastal flooding too, especially for areas where sea defences have already been breached.
Early Feb update
Here we are on another wet and blustery morning. A band of heavy rain moving eastwards to start the day, with some sleet and snow this time for a bit of variation for Wales and Scotland.
The flooding problems come various sources, rain from the sky (obviously), of which there have been loads and there is more this week. There has also been coastal flooding, so high tides, large waves, and a certain wind direction which pushes the sea water onto the land. There are also more subtle issues. The amount of groundwater present, so reservoirs of water that are naturally held in the land. After the huge amounts of rainfall that southern England has seen (with the wettest January on record for the Southeast), it is no wonder the ground is just sodden before any rain falls from the actual skies. There is also a lull from when the heavy rains fall over the hills, say of the Chilterns or the Downs and the time is arrived down in the Thames Valley. This is why river levels can continue to rise, even when it has stopped raining (although I’m not sure it really has). If there is any settling snow, this will add to the river flows once it melts.
Tuesday's rain will clear by lunchtime, although there will still be the odd hefty shower lurking.
This image shows the next low pressure moving in for Wednesday. Bringing heavy rain to SW England and Wales in the morning, then across the rest of southern England in the afternoon/evening. for the tops of the hills and moors of southern England there could be up to 50mm of rain in place (2") with 20 to 30mm expected more widely.
Thursday is drier.
Friday should be okay thorugh daylight hours but then...
this next low could potentially bring even more wet and windy weather to southern Britain late Friday.
There are hints in the longer range that there will be some interruption to this onslaught. Not that there will be a high pressure bringing a long spell of dry weather. Rather, that the weather patterens may head into a more varied mix, low pressure then a longer dry spell and so on. So still unsettled but not low, after low , after low.
At the moment,
The UK Hydrographic Office states “In the main a spring tide occurs 2 days after the date of New and Full Moon. However, a Spring Tide can occur anywhere from 0 to 4 days after New and Full Moon” And there is a full moon on Valentine’s Day, so the tides will be heading towards Spring by the end of this weekend.
There are still 14 Severe Flood warnings in the Southeast, mainly along the Thames and 2 in the Southwest for the Somerset Levels. The environment agency advice talks of flooding "affecting significant numbers of properties and whole communities and widespread disruption to travel." My train from Edinburgh had the information 'This train will no longer call at Taunton, Tiverton Parkway and Exeter St Davids'. Watching the television coverage of flooded fields/streets and houses,as more and more places become affected, it becomes so apparent that this will all take months to ease and recover. Are these the images of Climate Change in action?
