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July 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

Roger J Smith
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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
Posted

(a) CET Temperature forecast contest -- averages and extremes

... all years since 1981 (v2.0) are shown for comparison

... warmest 15 are bold type, middle 13 are italic type and coolest 13 are underlined.

... CET v2.0 breaks ties by second decimals which accounts for 2013, 1995 not shown as tied here.

... averages also recalculated for v2.0 data.

 

25.3 ... 25th, 2019, warmest daily mean

19.8 ... 2006 (warmest July)

19.4 ... 1983 (2nd warmest)

19.3 ... 2018 (3rd warmest)

18.8 ... 1783 (4th warmest)

18.7 ... 1852 (5th warmest)

18.5 ... 1976 (6th warmest), 1921 (7th), 1995 (8th), 2013 (9th)

18.4 ... 1757, 1808 (t 10th warmest)

18.1 ... 1989

18.0 ... 1994

17.9 ... 2014 

17.8 ... 2021

17.6 ... 2019

17.5 ... 1999

17.4 ... 2003

17.2 ... 2010

17.1 ... 2001, 1991 

17.0 ... 2016

16.9 ... 2017 ... average 2001-2021

16.8 ... 1984, 1990, 2005 ... average for 1991-2020 (and 1992-2021)

16.7 ...

16.6 ... 1997 ... average for 1981-2010 (16.63 compared to 16.71 legacy CET)

16.5 ... 

16.4 ... 1982, 1996, 2008 ... average for 1971-2000 (16.38 cf 16.48 legacy CET)

16.3 ... 2009

16.1 ... 1985, 1992 ... average 1901-2000 (16.06 vs 16.09 legacy) and 1701-1800

16.0 ... 2015 ... average for 1961-1990 (16.1 legacy) and all years 1659-2021

15.9 ... 

15.8 ... 1987, 2002, 2020 ... average for 1801-1900

15.7 ... 1986, 2004

15.6 ... 2012, average for 1659-1700

15.5 ... 1981 and lowest 30-year average 1671-1700 (15.47)

15.4 ... 1998

15.3 ... 2000, 2007, 2011

15.1 ... 1993 

14.6 ... 1988 (tied with 1980 as coldest since 1965, and with four other years as tied 35th coldest)

14.0 ... 1965 CET (t-11th coldest with 1674, 1685, 1713)

13.9 ... 1919 (10th coldest)

13.8 ... 1725, 1840, 1841 (tied 7th coldest)

13.7 ... 1888, 1922 (tied 5th coldest)

13.6 ... 1879 (4th coldest)

13.5 ... 1695,1802 (tied 2nd coldest)

13.4 ... 1816 (coldest July)

 8.7 ... 20th (1836) coldest daily mean

____________________________________________________________________________________________

Enter your July forecast by end of the day Thursday 30th June without penalty,

or during the first three days of July with increasing time penalties.

=================================================================================

 

(b) Optional EWP contest

Predict the England and Wales mean precipitation in mm for July 2021. The contest uses the Hadley EWP version which runs from 1766 to 2021. Here are some averages and extremes as a guide:

 

182.6 __ wettest (1828)

140.7 __ wettest since 1981 (2009)

_93.9 __ highest 30-year average (1773-1802 and 1775-1804)

_79.2 __ average for 1766-2021

_72.7 __ average for 1992-2021

_72.0 __ average for 1991-2020

_67.3 __ average for 1981-2010

_57.4 __ lowest 30-year average (1971-2000)

_26.3 __ driest since 1981 (1999)

_15.8 __ driest since 1825 (1911)

__8.2 __ driest (1825) __ second driest was 1800 (9.1 mm)

_____________________________________________________________________________________

recent values: 2021_90.5 .... 2020_69.0 .... 2019_71.7 .... 2018_39.6 .... 2017_105.7 .... 2016_43.6 mm

... ... ... ... ... ... 2015_92.1 .... 2014_54.7 .... 2013_54.0 .... 2012_120.7 .... 2011_65.2 .... 2010_67.9 mm

 

Enter your EWP forecast with your CET forecast, same deadlines. 

Maximum score 10.0, late penalties 0.3 per day.

 

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Shillitocettwo Explorer

Shillitocettwo

Posted
Posted

  Am I first?

 

  Starting quite warm and quickly developing into a month with protracted warm or very warm even hot spells, with temperatures in the mid to high 30.Cs and 39.C will be reached at some point in the month. 

    So I'm going to slap a straight CET of 20.0.C on this although I feel this will be the prelude to an August completely off the charts which will go even higher!

   Dryish overall but what rain falls will mostly come from thunderstorms at 44mm.

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
1 hour ago, Shillitocettwo said:

      So I'm going to slap a straight CET of 20.0.C on this although I feel this will be the prelude to an August completely off the charts which will go even higher!

Oh, I really hope not!  

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Bobd29 Enthusiast

Bobd29

Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
Posted

Hi I will go for 17.7C and 54.5mm please.

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Polar Gael Rising Star

Polar Gael

Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
Posted

18.0°C and 55.0mm for me please. 

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
On 21/06/2022 at 09:00, Earthshine said:

19.9°C and 20mm

I had better purchase that air conditioning unit very quick! 

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Earthshine Seasoned

Earthshine

Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Exeter
Posted
On 23/06/2022 at 12:27, Don said:

I had better purchase that air conditioning unit very quick! 

Going for the scorcher!

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DR(S)NO Community Regular

DR(S)NO

Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
Posted

17.5c and 60mm thank you please

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East Lancs Rain Accomplished

East Lancs Rain

Posted
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, not too cold
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
Posted

I’m expecting a mixed month with some cool and unsettled spells and one or two heat spikes. 
 

Therefore I’m predicting 17.0°C and 80 mm.

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

I'll go for 17.4C and 40mm of rain.

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Wold Topper Maestro

Wold Topper

Posted
  • Location: East coast side of the Yorkshire Wolds, 66m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, and plenty of warm sunny days!
  • Location: East coast side of the Yorkshire Wolds, 66m ASL
Posted

17.7c and 47mm please

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Freeze Seasoned

Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Shoreham, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: T storms, severe gales, heat and sun, cold and snow
  • Location: Shoreham, West Sussex
Posted

17.4c and 45mm 

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

17.6c....60mm

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