Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Hopefully ECM goes with the GFS. Many parts of Ireland have had a poor June. 

Yes, was a bit underwhelmed with the meto update today.. perhaps as others have suggested, initially this could be a ' dirty ' high with Atlantic gunk at the surface..

Hopefully ,as per longer range the cloud lofts out and something more nationwide can take hold.

Regardless the South looks very dry for much of the outlook...

[Mike Poole]

I think the model output is firming up the ridge from the Azores high nosing in to the UK.  That’s fine, but it is interesting to turn attention to what might deliver some real heat along with the settled weather from the high pressure and from that point of view the GFS 12z run holds some interest, here T192:

Watch the cut-off upper low marked in the evolution that follows:

Allows a chunk of high pressure to break off and move east, allowing a continental feed to the UK and some heat here at T300:

[Frosty.]

I haven’t posted for a few days but I’ve been keeping an eye on the mean and the GEFS has improved in the mid range with more of a push from the Azores high which will hopefully bode well for summer fans! ️  

[Allseasons-Si]

That's a vast improvement into week two from previous gefs ens,...

tracks in the right direction,...hopefully

 

[Frosty.]

The general theme from the ECMWF 12z operational is that the trough to the NW gradually fills and the remnants drift away to the N / NW as the Azores ridge / high slowly builds in and becomes more influential, the uppers (850’s) improve too… an improving picture on the way from the weekend onwards hopefully?! ️

 

 

[stodge]

Evening all

I'm still struggling to see any heat in tonight's model output.

Yes, after a moderate week this week the Azores HP looks as though it will finally turn up for a visit but there are then two scenarios:

GFS takes the Azores HP over the north of the British Isles and we get a 36-hour feed of warm to hot SE'ly winds before the trough encroaches again from the south west and we're back to square one.

IF the Azores HP persists to the west, we'll enjoy some fine settled conditions but with the air flow coming off the Atlantic we're looking at 850s of +8 at most so pleasantly warm certainly but no more.

Keeping the ridge to the west suppresses the hot air to the south as the winds flow round the ridge from the north east across southern parts - perhaps a risk of thundery showers for the Channel Islands in such a set up.

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, stodge said:

Evening all

I'm still struggling to see any heat in tonight's model output.

Yes, after a moderate week this week the Azores HP looks as though it will finally turn up for a visit but there are then two scenarios:

GFS takes the Azores HP over the north of the British Isles and we get a 36-hour feed of warm to hot SE'ly winds before the trough encroaches again from the south west and we're back to square one.

IF the Azores HP persists to the west, we'll enjoy some fine settled conditions but with the air flow coming off the Atlantic we're looking at 850s of +8 at most so pleasantly warm certainly but no more.

Keeping the ridge to the west suppresses the hot air to the south as the winds flow round the ridge from the north east across southern parts - perhaps a risk of thundery showers for the Channel Islands in such a set up.

For sure, it isn't a hot outlook, but hey we've had a couple of stabs at that sort of setup... one that doesn't last more than a day or two anyway.

I'm sure many will take something potentially more prolonged and widespread, even if it is more moderate in terms of temperatures. If we can get lucky with cloud amounts, diurnal heating at this time of year will ensure a steady rise in temperatures anyway, even without exceptional 850s  

Bring on the high pressure, I say 

[bluearmy]

Ec MJO forecasts have now found some of the amplitude that the gefs have been showing phase 4 into 5 

the ec 46 now consistent in showing a v warm second half July and into august (that’s quite far away for consistency) 

[Frosty.]

For sure, tonight’s ECMWF 12z ensemble mean looks very easy on the eyes ? ? longer term thanks to the Azores high / ridge building in quite strongly…plenty of ensemble support then for a return to summery conditions next week.. … with the improvement starting at the weekend! ️  

 

[Uncertainty]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Ec MJO forecasts have now found some of the amplitude that the gefs have been showing phase 4 into 5 

the ec 46 now consistent in showing a v warm second half July and into august (that’s quite far away for consistency) 

You’re not wrong Blue

CFS presently keen on a warm / dry August too

Early days, but it’s hardly setting up as a 2007 redux, notwithstanding this week in the NW!

FWIW, the latest contingency planner is veering towards hotter rather than cooler. I’ve felt all along the seasonals were going warm and dry in the south this season and no reason to change that supposition for the time being.

[Downpour]

1 hour ago, Steel City Skies said:

For sure, it isn't a hot outlook, but hey we've had a couple of stabs at that sort of setup... one that doesn't last more than a day or two anyway.

I'm sure many will take something potentially more prolonged and widespread, even if it is more moderate in terms of temperatures. If we can get lucky with cloud amounts, diurnal heating at this time of year will ensure a steady rise in temperatures anyway, even without exceptional 850s  

Bring on the high pressure, I say 

Indeed. I find the “hunt for heat” slightly bizarre. Many will be looking for warm, useable, summer weather. That is progged in abundance currently. Let’s hope it maintains. 

[northwestsnow]

EC 00z building in the Azores high by 7 ...

 

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 00z building in the Azores high by 7 ...

 

Steady as she goes....looking good! 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Steady as she goes....looking good! 

Looks warm across the South next week...

[mb018538]

Warming up through the week on the ECM. Still a long way off for fine details. Ideally we'd like that Azores high just a bit closer to really seal the deal, but it's not looking too bad.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Warming up through the week on the ECM. Still a long way off for fine details. Ideally we'd like that Azores high just a bit closer to really seal the deal, but it's not looking too bad.

LOL those surface temps are poor for the NW !!

The 850s don't look too bad , I'm assuming the model is seeing a NW airflow .

Regardless that would be a kick in the wetsuits for anyone in NW England in particular.m

[bluearmy]

despite yesterdays 12z eps only offering one cluster at days 8/10, the spread said differently and no surprise to see this mornings day 10 on the back of this. Expect to see a running system traversing the ridge and a bit of a pendulum swing over the next few days on how much it affect the U.K. 

    

[Captain Shortwave]

Whilst conditions look dry, the winds look pretty westerly throughout. The Azores ridge looks to broaden and extend eastwards, but remain centred to the west/south west of the U.K. So looking good for eastern areas, however those in the west may very well be plagued by low cloud and drizzle being fed on that tropical maritime feed.

It would be ideal if we were able to break off a surface ridge to allow the airmass to dry out and as such being more widespread sunny conditions.

 

[Earthshine]

11 hours ago, stodge said:

Evening all

I'm still struggling to see any heat in tonight's model output.

Yes, after a moderate week this week the Azores HP looks as though it will finally turn up for a visit but there are then two scenarios:

GFS takes the Azores HP over the north of the British Isles and we get a 36-hour feed of warm to hot SE'ly winds before the trough encroaches again from the south west and we're back to square one.

IF the Azores HP persists to the west, we'll enjoy some fine settled conditions but with the air flow coming off the Atlantic we're looking at 850s of +8 at most so pleasantly warm certainly but no more.

Keeping the ridge to the west suppresses the hot air to the south as the winds flow round the ridge from the north east across southern parts - perhaps a risk of thundery showers for the Channel Islands in such a set up.

Can't focus on 850 hPa temperatures too much.  In light winds at the surface those temperatures could easily reach high twenties, especially in eastern areas.  It's not uncommon to see superadiabatic lapse rates at this time of year so the potential for above average temperatures is there.

[mb018538]

  

An ever improving and warming picture through next week on the ECM mean this morning. No heatwave - but pleasantly warm and perhaps very warm (25-28c) if there's more sunshine available.  

[Earthshine]

36 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

  

An ever improving and warming picture through next week on the ECM mean this morning. No heatwave - but pleasantly warm and perhaps very warm (25-28c) if there's more sunshine available.  

Yep temperatures could rise quickly day by day in any prolonged sunshine.

[bluearmy]

Better

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Better

I'm still utterly distraught at 25/26 in the SE next Thurs and 14/16 here !!!!

 

[bluearmy]

24 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm still utterly distraught at 25/26 in the SE next Thurs and 14/16 here !!!!

 

No way will it verify like that ! 
 

 

 

You’ll get to 17

[mountain shadow]

29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm still utterly distraught at 25/26 in the SE next Thurs and 14/16 here !!!!

 

We just have to accept that we live in the absolute worst part of the world for clear skies and dry weather for our latitude. Amazing that a couple of hundred miles South East is a completely different climate.