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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives


Message added by Paul,

Please double-check the contents of your post before hitting submit to make sure it is model related. For general discussion about the weather this autumn, the Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps and Chat is already very active, so please head over there.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
32 minutes ago, Don said:

Wondering just how long the heat will stay away for after the weekend?!

GFS hinting at warmth returning sometime during Wimbledon

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
1 hour ago, Don said:

Wondering just how long the heat will stay away for after the weekend?!

ECM keeps it away for the entirety of its run, with a yucky plunge of northerlies instead. Nobody wants that crap in high summer!

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Gfs 18z rain is now virtually non existent widely across the uk!!what a change from earlier!!saturday and sunday looking warm and sunny now without the extreme heat!

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs 18z rain is now virtually non existent widely across the uk!!what a change from earlier!!saturday and sunday looking warm and sunny now without the extreme heat!

Possibly some more twists and turns to come before we see a done deal?

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Just now, Don said:

Possibly some more twists and turns to come before we see a done deal?

Yup aint done yet but good signs this evening for sure!!

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Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire

18z is lovely nothing like the basket case earlier runs.  18c Saturday nice outdoor weather perfect for day out. 

Monday also looks interesting too looks like a push of warmer air tries to return. 

Edited by StormChaseUK
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
6 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

18z is lovely nothing like the basket case earlier runs.  18c Saturday nice outdoor weather perfect for day out. 

Monday also looks interesting too looks like a push of warmer air tries to return. 

I'm sure the heat will return at some point, even if only short lived again!

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Arpege for tomorrow;

image.thumb.png.a8172704ee2ca1c7f134e6fecca33e05.png
 

32-34c across central, southern and eastern parts of England. I suspect we will fall short of the June record.

Still questions post the weekend, the UKMO has a quick warm up again during the first half of next week with a brief source of air from the Mediterranean. The GFS tends to throw more of a ridge across the UK and makes less of the low. So a reasonable hope of more warm weather to come, though not at the scale we will see in parts tomorrow.

 

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
7 hours ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs 18z rain is now virtually non existent widely across the uk!!what a change from earlier!!saturday and sunday looking warm and sunny now without the extreme heat!

This is a common theme, at least around my area over the last few years in summer. The models and the Mer always over egg the precipitation in the summer months  at days 3 to 5. Im pretty confident that if the Mets app shows heavy showers throughout the day at day 5 by day 3 they will be light showers and by day zero it will be dry! 

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Posted
  • Location: Telford
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, thunderstorms and snowy or frosty winters
  • Location: Telford

I'm choosing to believe the MET over the BBC this morning the beebs seems to still have the rain band over us although not as heavy now but the MET has us for just cloudy with pleasant enough temps of around 18c and their take on the monthly outlook is a lot better with a prediction of above temps in July and the possibility of warm to hot spells ☀️

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Ecm still gives the rain but its is a very narrow band now compared to before!!also does not plonk its self over  me for hours!!!want it gone on the 12z though!!cmon gfs trump ecm this time around!!

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm still gives the rain but its is a very narrow band now compared to before!!also does not plonk its self over  me for hours!!!want it gone on the 12z though!!cmon gfs trump ecm this time around!!

Hi, I'm not sure if you have an event on or something but you seem very determined not to have any precipitation?! Personally I'd like to see our gardens get a good watering.

In general the GFS is atrocious on short-term details for the UK. I'd follow the Met Office fax charts and other short-range European models every time. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

112FD9DC-6CFF-446A-A10C-2CE4A5A6E4B7.thumb.webp.fd41fb525598956cbdcf6a5d0eadc779.webp

Look at this fax chart tomorrow at 12 noon. Looking at face value it just looks like a westerly flow off the Atlantic! Quite incredible it’ll be low 30s. Just doesn’t look right at all for a heatwave does it?!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
20 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

112FD9DC-6CFF-446A-A10C-2CE4A5A6E4B7.thumb.webp.fd41fb525598956cbdcf6a5d0eadc779.webp

Look at this fax chart tomorrow at 12 noon. Looking at face value it just looks like a westerly flow off the Atlantic! Quite incredible it’ll be low 30s. Just doesn’t look right at all for a heatwave does it?!

But take a glance at the low level flow in relation to the temps. The exact position of the front crucial to the north south 'cut off'

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-uv925_mslp-5467200.thumb.png.43b84218da7e91dd71eb5abedaab5ec1.pngecmwf-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_anom-5467200.thumb.png.b7f549f08e661abad54f92d85bdb9271.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
11 minutes ago, knocker said:

But take a glance at the low level flow in relation to the temps. The exact position of the front crucial to the north south 'cut off'

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-uv925_mslp-5467200.thumb.png.43b84218da7e91dd71eb5abedaab5ec1.pngecmwf-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_anom-5467200.thumb.png.b7f549f08e661abad54f92d85bdb9271.png

That’s a nice chart to show the reasoning for the heat. Still off the continent in the hot southern half, off the Atlantic further north. Weather always amazes.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Hmmm interesting the ukv 03z continues to push the extreme temps further north and west for tomorrow!surprised no ones mentioned this!now gives me highs between 32 and 34 degrees and across a wider area!!also no washout weekend on the ukv!!!

Edited by sheikhy
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

the ec op barely wafts a 20c upper across the Sussex  coastline

The icon was least interested in bringing those numbers across the south of the U.K. and it’s going to be closest on that score. 
 

hence we won’t quite threaten the date record but it will be yuk - amazing that we can go to 34 so quickly without several days of ‘heating’. I suppose we do have max solar input 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

UKV

B7EE3414-D6BB-4F5E-94F7-7D065A26EB7E.jpeg

It is quite rare to see the whole of East Anglia bathed in temperatures like this. A 35c towards north Cambridgeshire/West Norfolk.

The ECM sees temperature bounce back after the weekend with the mid twenties on Tuesday. The first half of next week could offer other interests in the event of rain being pushed northwards from France. It still looks like we will see westerlies return later in the week, though the ECM op seems overly pessimistic with such a deep low developing to our north.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

Mmm, well it looks like the brief hot spell will end more with a whimper than fireworks. As a storm lover I was hoping for a bit more in terms of action given the temp gradient , however as we know if all the ingredients are not together just right (or even if they are sometimes) then nothing happens...well bar a bit of rain perhaps..this is best i could find on the ukv..

image.thumb.png.e8ad69114a814fa93e2adf97833c678c.png

Until next time...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

Interesting ecm still has the heat for Monday..

image.thumb.png.d81b3da837c79d813a0247c50f0617e9.png

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

Interesting BBC / MeteoGroup forecast just out. They are very much sticking with heat in the south-east, amazing temperature gradients and lively thundery breakdown with heavy rain Saturday / Sunday.

Saturday:

51967295_Screenshot2022-06-16at08_43_54.thumb.png.240fd6bccd14b9bf7b6c5e663df67432.png1155006658_Screenshot2022-06-16at08_44_10.thumb.png.3d87c932ed93431e6de482d1250954c8.png

Sunday:

2051565196_Screenshot2022-06-16at08_44_39.thumb.png.e0c2c871bb672d18632b14e73f505c9d.png825157471_Screenshot2022-06-16at08_44_56.thumb.png.65f9807120de302ff7c39acefee9f7c0.png

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