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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives


Message added by Paul,

Please double-check the contents of your post before hitting submit to make sure it is model related. For general discussion about the weather this autumn, the Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps and Chat is already very active, so please head over there.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
2 hours ago, Staffmoorlands said:

GFS suggests a couple of decent days for those north of Birmingham from Sunday. More in the way of cloud from Tuesday ( also shown on the ECM) from midweek. Fax charts will have the detail.

Looks great for most of southern England though.

I think you're playing this spell down far too much. It also looks very good indeed for most of England, with Monday likely to be hot and probably Tuesday too in this area. Cooler but still nice on Wednesday and then another warm up into the weekend is what I see.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
34 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I think you're playing this spell down far too much. It also looks very good indeed for most of England, with Monday likely to be hot and probably Tuesday too in this area. Cooler but still nice on Wednesday and then another warm up into the weekend is what I see.

Maybe peoples heads have been turned too far with some of the recent output? The upcoming week of weather would sit well in any great summer for many areas. I’ll likely see 80f breached for a week straight here, which is stunning (for me anyway, others will hate this I know).

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Maybe peoples heads have been turned too far with some of the recent output? The upcoming week of weather would sit well in any great summer for many areas. I’ll likely see 80f breached for a week straight here, which is stunning (for me anyway, others will hate this I know).

True - think we will see 5+ days 0f 30C, which is very good, with a couple of days topping 90F.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
14 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Maybe peoples heads have been turned too far with some of the recent output? The upcoming week of weather would sit well in any great summer for many areas. I’ll likely see 80f breached for a week straight here, which is stunning (for me anyway, others will hate this I know).

Exactly, it looks very good indeed for most and the concerns about areas north of the Midlands missing out are no longer valid. Even this Sunday is looking a lot warmer and sunnier now than it did initially for most of us. As usual the BBC and Met Office are behind with the temperatures on their websites for Monday, but it looks to me like high 20s will be widespread on Monday.

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
48 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Maybe peoples heads have been turned too far with some of the recent output? The upcoming week of weather would sit well in any great summer for many areas. I’ll likely see 80f breached for a week straight here, which is stunning (for me anyway, others will hate this I know).

The ECM is perfect, Wednesday is only cool because it's a transition between high pressures and we are temporarily on the eastern side of the incoming high. GFS is disappointing though. Let's see what UKMO says because the crunch period of whether that 2nd high makes it far north enough should be coming into UKMO range today.

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Posted
  • Location: Barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley
4 hours ago, bluearmy said:

The ops which drive the excessive plume are in conjunction with the upper low west of Iberia drifting north 

at the moment the favoured solution on this side of the pendulum is for the Atlantic to phase with this Azores low drifting north which pushes everything a little east and quickens the plume event to be a 24 hour at most. 
 

at eight/nine days out , getting the timing of the Atlantic trough pulse and escaping cut off upper low is likely unreliable.  
 

certainly one to watch because if the Azores low doesn’t phase and just drifts nne then the plume across nw Europe north will be at least 48 hours extremely notable and likely dangerous. 

This is an excellent post. I know strictly speaking we don't want extreme heat for all the disruption it can cause to health and infrastructure, but purely from a meteorological standpoint, it's what is interesting me with the models at the moment, the prospect of such an historic event occurring. 

It will take a while longer yet before the aforementioned relationship (or lack of) between the Atlantic trough and the upper low is determined reliably.

It is no surprise to see the GFS phase progressively and flatten the pattern compared to the rest of the suite, so I wonder whether it'll moderate down the line and bring back some more extreme solutions even in operationals.

Edited by mhielte
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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Muy Caliente, Muy Soleado
  • Location: Liverpool

I'd take that GFS 06z all day long. Not showing the 40c plume (38c still possible) but much more pleasing on the whole. Would prefer 7-10 days of sustained HP. Not as much of a temperature yo-yo for the North either.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
2 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

I'd take that GFS 06z all day long. Not showing the 40c plume (38c still possible) but much more pleasing on the whole. Would prefer 7-10 days of sustained HP. Not as much of a temperature yo-yo for the North either.

Ends on a big high too

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
11 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

I'd take that GFS 06z all day long. Not showing the 40c plume (38c still possible) but much more pleasing on the whole. Would prefer 7-10 days of sustained HP. Not as much of a temperature yo-yo for the North either.

Yes I would as well, and as you say there is still a couple of very hot days in there with 35-37c in the mix. Maxes sticking around 30c for quite some time once it sets in next week.

Anyway something of a halfway house on this run, the GFS does try to push in the plume but the real extreme stuff just stays a little to the south, but we trade in the strength for length instead.

VERY dry run for England again, quite a few places have literally 0mm in the next 15 days. for the SE the rainfall deficit really is becoming quite noteworthy and a long very warm and dry spell isn't going to help. I suspect my grass might look close to what it did in 2018 should that happen.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

The 06z is an odd run in the sense that the Azores low drifts north east but then sinks southwards before developing fully. The south is very close to becoming very or extremely hot before cooler air pushes south eastwards but with no real breakdown in terms of rainfall.

Not sure how much I buy that evolution. If the low moves northwards you would expect it to phase with the northern arm of the jet eventually.

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Thought it may be interesting for some to see these from the ECMWF hires ensembles - and to show what we're working on at the moment!

It's the 2m temperatures for London from the 12z yesterday and the 00z today (12z first). The spread shows the uncertainty really increase after 200 hours, but the max is way up there close to or above record breaking levels on both late next week. 

t2m-12z-london.png

t2m-00z-london.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
12 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Probably because I just spent £40 on an oscillating cooling fan and advised all my family to do the same.

It’s equivalent to the jinx in winter

I just brought one too!! A quiet one with a remote control ... Thanks Dorsetbred! It'll be 20c next week now and thick cloud ha!

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Looking again at the ECM ensembles - it's a pretty incredible spread of outcomes for later next week. Could be 38c, could be 19c - and 48 other options in between!

beds-t2m.png

Edited by Paul
Misread initially, spread isn't quite as big as I thought.
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Posted
  • Location: South Norwood, London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Cold Winters & Warm Dry Summers
  • Location: South Norwood, London
27 minutes ago, Paul said:

Looking again at the ECM ensembles - it's a pretty incredible spread of outcomes for later next week. Could be 38c, could be 19c - and 48 other options in between!

beds-t2m.png

Is that an error your end where it says May at the bottom of the graph or am I reading it wrong?

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

 

10 minutes ago, Jayces said:

Is that an error your end where it says May at the bottom of the graph or am I reading it wrong?

Yep, they're test charts and the date is a bit wonky at the moment!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Modelling appears to have firmed up over the last 48 hours and essentially splits our spell into two.

The first spell sees high pressure move from the west over the U.K. this weekend however critically a low to our north flattens the high sufficiently to push a dying cold front south around mid week as the core of the high retreats west. It remains warm for the south especially but for most, temperatures retreat closer to normal.

image.thumb.png.2768e29c569ebc6840cba9ceb28ff338.png
 

The second spell is what is confusing the models. Those runs like the Euro0z which pick up the Azores Low produce a significant plume, those runs which dissolve the upper low eventuality push the heat out after a few days.

image.thumb.png.cbcad9b3798204647595a5e2b6cc113f.png
 

image.thumb.png.6dea67dc77030fcda30f16e28b6f05f6.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing
  • Location: Worthing

That was quite a run from the 06z records could tumble even on that run, hot to very hot on and off on most of the run, think if we get the record breaking charts tonight this place will be going mad 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I just brought one too!! A quiet one with a remote control ... Thanks Dorsetbred! It'll be 20c next week now and thick cloud ha!

I think I'll spend the day sitting under a cold shower. A few waterproof books might come in handy?!

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Posted
  • Location: Biddulph, Staffordshire Moorlands 750f ABSL
  • Location: Biddulph, Staffordshire Moorlands 750f ABSL
22 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Daily Mirror: 'One model from The Weather Outlook forecast astonishing highs of 40C in Bristol on July 14 and a blistering 41C in London two days later'.

Are they still going

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

UKMO looking solid, thought we had made it with the GFS too but then develops a new problem throwing the low into us towards the end of next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Biddulph, Staffordshire Moorlands 750f ABSL
  • Location: Biddulph, Staffordshire Moorlands 750f ABSL

12z GFS giving the north west more rain as early as next Tuesday

and more rain by Friday and next weekend!

Edited by Staffmoorlands
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3 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

12z GFS giving the north west more rain as early as next Tuesday

and more rain by Friday and next weekend!

Wait, you guys are taking a GFS precip chart 5+ days ahead seriously? Come on, I know it's not what you want to see but.... it's the GFS precip charts  

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Posted
  • Location: Biddulph, Staffordshire Moorlands 750f ABSL
  • Location: Biddulph, Staffordshire Moorlands 750f ABSL
1 minute ago, Steel City Skies said:

Wait, you guys are taking a GFS precip chart 5+ days ahead seriously? Come on, I know it's not what you want to see but.... it's the GFS precip charts  

Met office have already picked up on the rain - check the forecast for Glasgow for next Tuesday - rain.

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