Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[MattStoke]

7 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

If GFS 12z P06 comes off for the 18th then for eastern England residents it is time to emigrate to a cooler location in Europe since we are the hottest part of all of Europe, tied with Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Southern Spain and areas near the Black Sea. We are much hotter than most of Europe, even most areas to our south too.

We even manage to get the 26C 850hpa isotherm into southern UK at around 1am. Imagine what those 2m maxes would show if this happens 12 hours later.

Those poor people in W Ireland and NW Scotland who miss out on the 20C isotherm.

A tad warm everywhere.

[SqueakheartLW]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

A tad warm everywhere.

That one only gives Scunthorpe a measly 32C

[Don]

9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

A tad warm everywhere.

If that came off, it would be one hell of a wake up call to climate change!!

[tight isobar]

Divy, mc daft .. But for me it was always aligning!. The extremities will bubble and slide.. but for many the heat inbound will be “ more than notable “.. good luck to those whom like such . 

[Man With Beard]

The NOAA anomalies do not pour any cold water on the idea of a mega-plume:

A mean trough to our south west D8-14 might well be the catalyst for pumping up the heat that is going to build over Western Europe D4-D7.

I wouldn't call anything beyond D6 yet though - still time to mix in more from the NW at that period, which would temper the heat.

[cheeky_monkey]

43 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

A tad warm everywhere.

wonder what the Humidex would be for this??

[damianslaw]

More subtle changes between ECM , UKMO and GFS again today. Yesterday it was the ECM keeping heights further west and not building in far enough east, today its GFS, with ECM doing the reverse.

We need a few more days yet before we can call how things may develop.. in these scenarios sudden short term developments can pop up unexpected, keep an eye both to the NW and also to the SW. Models are showing trough features in both vicinities, GFS makes more of the trough to the NW, ECM more of the shallow low/trough feature to the SW, which was a feature in June..

I'm staying cautious, don't be surprised if GFS and ECM swap places yet again tomorrow, and then again the day after and then again the day after if you get my drift... the met office outlook was quite sobering for any long term sustained nationwide heat.. my own view has always been for mid July to deliver the best of the summer weather in terms of dry sunshine and warmth but such conditions will not prevail rest of the summer, a plume scenario would tie in with that.

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

wonder what the Humidex would be for this??

No higher than the modelled temps, in all these scenarios the dew points forecast have been exceptionally low.  

[tight isobar]

6 minutes ago, Alderc said:

No higher than the modelled temps, in all these scenarios the dew points forecast have been exceptionally low.  

The only thing ( especially for southern England) .. will be the exactions of immediate @2m temperature , arid ground and illuminating hpa- is in most modelled. “ coming up”a recipe for sweltering conditions. The lower / mid / upper layers will then respond in consequence! A real hot 1 lining up.. heat.@ possibly UV warnings are almost 1 horse backing- I’m personally not to happy about things as the heat isn’t my preferred .. and likely soon not the most hardy either!!!

Edited July 5, 2022 by tight isobar

[Singularity]

18z GFS is shaping up a lot more like the ECM 12z although still with some variations.

Temps in much of England are several degrees higher than the 12z for Sun-Mon due to less of a cut-back flow off the North Sea. Overall there’s a continuous ridge of high pressure across from the Azores maintained, rather than a temporarily separate high that attempts to rejoin. Seems to be important going forward.

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Temps in much of England are several degrees higher than the 12z for Sun-Mon due to less of a cut-back flow off the North Sea. Overall there’s a continuous ridge of high pressure across from the Azores maintained, rather than a temporarily separate high that attempts to rejoin. Seems to be important going forward.

Very similar to the other models which head towards 30-32c by that time on their latest runs.

Looking closer to the 12z ensemble mean than the 12z op run which was one of the more progressive runs from its suite (especially the further north where it was the 4/5th coolest at times out of the 32 runs).

[sheikhy]

Much better 18z!!looking a scorcher at 240 hours!!too far ahead though!

[tight isobar]

18 minutes ago, Singularity said:

18z GFS is shaping up a lot more like the ECM 12z although still with some variations.

Temps in much of England are several degrees higher than the 12z for Sun-Mon due to less of a cut-back flow off the North Sea. Overall there’s a continuous ridge of high pressure across from the Azores maintained, rather than a temporarily separate high that attempts to rejoin. Seems to be important going forward.

The feed - And expansion of tropical/ equatorial feed is very notable! As Angular  momentum allows for jet stream miss management. The clockwise mid latitude views/ deciphering will likely keep a locked in open heat valve “ for some time”! It’s minuscule geographic dynamics that need calculating!. Some are( in dynamics/ construction)- undermining - overwhelming heat looks high on the workout scale!!. 

Edited July 5, 2022 by tight isobar

[kold weather]

18z is really close to something truly exceptional for a large part of the country, even amongst some of the amazing runs we've seen lately.

For most the front comes in just a little too soon and so the afternoon hours are into the cooler flow away from the SE/E.

However on this run the SE keep in the hot air just long enough to get some real crazy temps.  41C in Kent is suggested on this run! Crazily enough that probably comes early afternoon a little before absolute peak heating would normally occur, so the cap might even be a smidge higher again if the front were delayed even an hour or two!

Edited July 5, 2022 by kold weather

[Iceman2606]

[NUT]

Something seems to be on here why does it seem so many models predicting something in the 40's Could the impossible say 20 30 years ago be about to happen? And what about any breakdown that could be a biggie

[JayAlmeida]

Its way out in la la land but interesting to see the heat on offer for much of Europe at the end of the GFS 18z. Surely we could tap into some of that later on in the summer aswell.

[Don]

3 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

Its way out in la la land but interesting to see the heat on offer for much of Europe at the end of the GFS 18z. Surely we could tap into some of that later on in the summer aswell.

Yes, all the time the heat is over Europe, we could potentially tap into it again at some point!

[JayAlmeida]

26 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, all the time the heat is over Europe, we could potentially tap into it again at some point!

Dunno if was being Captain Obvious there with that one.

Just trying to give a counterbalance to the idea that summer will be over after the upcoming spell of decent weather is over.

[Don]

17 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

Dunno if was being Captain Obvious there with that one.

Just trying to give a counterbalance to the idea that summer will be over after the upcoming spell of decent weather is over.

Fair play and we need to see what happens during the next few weeks before anything else.  I think it has been sighted for some time that mid July held the greatest chance of heat, a result of the MJO phase, so my guess would be that if we are to tap into exceptional heat later in the summer it would probably be a one or two day spike, similar to that in July 2019 and last month.  

[Josh Rubio]

40 degrees? What disgusting and potentially dangerous heat. I don’t think many people would actually enjoy that, especially given we aren’t prepared for that kind of heat. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, JayAlmeida said:

Dunno if was being Captain Obvious there with that one.

Just trying to give a counterbalance to the idea that summer will be over after the upcoming spell of decent weather is over.

It won't be over, but the days will start to shorten towards and into August and the sun won't feel as stifling when under direct sunlight.

The 4-5 week period after the solstice is peak insolation time in terms of that summer feel.

Edited July 6, 2022 by CreweCold

[Nigelapplewhit4]

3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

It won't be over, but the days will start to shorten towards and into August and the sun won't feel as stifling when under direct sunlight.

The 4-5 week period after the solstice is peak insolation time in terms of that summer feel.

I dont like the GFS 00z this morning - According to this there wont be a heatwave.  have a look at the jetstream firing at the UK  on the 12th July, Even worse by midnight on the 13th.  Plenty of rain for North West UK and NorthWest England incoming . Is the GFS having a wobble about the heat ? Even the SE is only 23 at mid day on the 13th. As a heat lover im gutted.  is it supported by other models. 

Edited July 6, 2022 by Nigelapplewhit4

[Lukesluckybunch]

yes the latest gfs is showing things gradually cooling down as the week progresses,as a trough threatens from the northwest..lets hope its an outlier

[Nigelapplewhit4]

6 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

yes the latest gfs is showing things gradually cooling down as the week progresses,as a trough threatens from the northwest..lets hope its an outlier

I'm praying to the heat gods that this is a statistical outlier but we are only at +6 days range so there must be an element of truth in the modelling.  It will be really frustrating if the trough is incoming mid week.  Looks like the high pressure is much weaker than i was expecting.  The latest BBC Weather is still showing high temps for England next week so there is some hope. 

Edited July 6, 2022 by Nigelapplewhit4