Summer 2022 Chat

[MP-R]

7 hours ago, Don said:

Summer returned in September, which was warmer than August!

What an amazing summer it could’ve been if not for August... although August was actually sunnier than September here. 

The classic anticyclonic cloud was a problem in September.

Edited June 2, 2022 by MP-R

[cheeky_monkey]

5 hours ago, MP-R said:

What an amazing summer it could’ve been if not for August... although August was actually sunnier than September here. 

The classic anticyclonic cloud was a problem in September.

summer 2006 could have been the longest hottest on record had it not been for August..July was the hottest on record followed by the hottest September on record

[Earthshine]

Maybe we will get to 40°C this year.  The last few years have seen some extraordinarily high temperatures.

[Don]

1 hour ago, Earthshine said:

Maybe we will get to 40°C this year.  The last few years have seen some extraordinarily high temperatures.

It's possible as it's only a matter of time.

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

summer 2006 could have been the longest hottest on record had it not been for August..July was the hottest on record followed by the hottest September on record

Yes definitely - September 2006 was quite tropical feeling at times, very warm and wet. Would've been quite an appropriate August month. That October, had it come in September would've been pretty warm too.

[Frost HoIIow]

29 minutes ago, Don said:

It's possible as it's only a matter of time.

Despite GW I reckon there's a limit to how hot it can get in this country - mostly because of Geography. 40C may well be achieved but it's taking it's time. I remember in the early 2000's the so called experts saying it'll breach 40C in the next 10 years but officially it still hasn't yet 20 years on. It has in Canada but that is part of the huge North American landmass which heats up easier. Over there you'd need less exceptional conditions.

We're an island moderated all year round by water and all of the UK is quite far north, nothing's going to change that and there will be a smaller opportunity than say France to achieve blistering hot temps. As being further south the sun there is stronger earlier in the year and for longer, closer to the plumes of heat coming up from Africa and among mainland Europe which heats up far more easily than the British Isles in the warmer months. They've got a lot of things in their favour in regards to heat where as we've got some things that are scuppering it in this country despite GW.

[Janglos199]

Summer finally! I love this time of year. For some reason to me I enjoy food, music and daily activities more than at any other time of year.

[Don]

11 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Despite GW I reckon there's a limit to how hot it can get in this country - mostly because of Geography. 40C may well be achieved but it's taking it's time. I remember in the early 2000's the so called experts saying it'll breach 40C in the next 10 years but officially it still hasn't yet 20 years on. It has in Canada but that is part of the huge North American landmass which heats up easier. Over there you'd need less exceptional conditions.

We're an island moderated all year round by water and all of the UK is quite far north, nothing's going to change that and there will be a smaller opportunity than say France to achieve blistering hot temps. As being further south the sun there is stronger earlier in the year and for longer, closer to the plumes of heat coming up from Africa and among mainland Europe which heats up far more easily than the British Isles in the warmer months. They've got a lot of things in their favour in regards to heat where as we've got some things that are scuppering it in this country despite GW.

You make some good points.  However, I'm still almost convinced 40C will be breached in southern UK at some point, be it 5, 10 or 20 years time.  That said, I for one would rather it wasn't breached!

Edited June 2, 2022 by Don

[SunSean]

What a beautiful day! Pretty much wall to wall sunshine from sunrise to sunset! Please can we have more of this rather than the usual grey rubbish lol. I'm not even fussed about temperature, I'd take 20 degrees all summer if almost every day is clear blue skies. Main factor for me is sunshine amounts and today was perfect.

[Sunny76]

20 minutes ago, SunSean said:

What a beautiful day! Pretty much wall to wall sunshine from sunrise to sunset! Please can we have more of this rather than the usual grey rubbish lol. I'm not even fussed about temperature, I'd take 20 degrees all summer if almost every day is clear blue skies. Main factor for me is sunshine amounts and today was perfect.

Yeah I agree here.

Would easily take 21-23c all summer with clear blue skies, and the odd few days of rain and cloud, over a warmer summer with 25-26c and cloudy humid air masses, or temps stuck around 20c and cloudy. 
 

Maybe we will get lucky this summer and get more sun.

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Despite GW I reckon there's a limit to how hot it can get in this country - mostly because of Geography. 40C may well be achieved but it's taking it's time. I remember in the early 2000's the so called experts saying it'll breach 40C in the next 10 years but officially it still hasn't yet 20 years on. It has in Canada but that is part of the huge North American landmass which heats up easier. Over there you'd need less exceptional conditions.

 

it reaches 40c in Canada every year and always has done..last year the hottest temp in Canada was broken with 49.6c being recorded which is higher than the European record

[Frost HoIIow]

24 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

it reaches 40c in Canada every year and always has done..last year the hottest temp in Canada was broken with 49.6c being recorded which is higher than the European record

Indeed. The N. American landmass is bigger than the European landmass so not surprising to see very high temps in Canada especially in the south. Then in winter this landmass helps with cold right down to Texas. Personally if I was younger I'd have liked to have lived in Nebraska as you get loads of extremes. That state seems to be ideally located well away from any moderating influence. Probably won't say that if the house got destroyed by a tornado in tornado alley!

[HellItsHot]

Blimey, just seen the forecast for Sunday. There’ll be some damp union jacks, glad I’m a Republican! 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

4 hours ago, SunSean said:

What a beautiful day! Pretty much wall to wall sunshine from sunrise to sunset! Please can we have more of this rather than the usual grey rubbish lol. I'm not even fussed about temperature, I'd take 20 degrees all summer if almost every day is clear blue skies. Main factor for me is sunshine amounts and today was perfect.

Exactly! The sunlight is so important to mental health. A nice hot day is an added bonus.

[Don]

3 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

it reaches 40c in Canada every year and always has done..last year the hottest temp in Canada was broken with 49.6c being recorded which is higher than the European record

49.6C? Jeez, what was the previous record?!

[TheOgre]

Bloody hell it’s looking dire for Sunday It’ll be just like the Diamond jubilee and then after that there’s a huge downgrade for the rest of the week too! Take me far away from this island! 

[Row w]

4 hours ago, TheOgre said:

Bloody hell it’s looking dire for Sunday It’ll be just like the Diamond jubilee and then after that there’s a huge downgrade for the rest of the week too! Take me far away from this island! 

Was going to say the same thing what happened to the low to mid twenties temps that were forecast earlier in the week wish they'd stop getting our hopes up

[kold weather]

14 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Despite GW I reckon there's a limit to how hot it can get in this country - mostly because of Geography. 40C may well be achieved but it's taking it's time. I remember in the early 2000's the so called experts saying it'll breach 40C in the next 10 years but officially it still hasn't yet 20 years on. It has in Canada but that is part of the huge North American landmass which heats up easier. Over there you'd need less exceptional conditions.

We're an island moderated all year round by water and all of the UK is quite far north, nothing's going to change that and there will be a smaller opportunity than say France to achieve blistering hot temps. As being further south the sun there is stronger earlier in the year and for longer, closer to the plumes of heat coming up from Africa and among mainland Europe which heats up far more easily than the British Isles in the warmer months. They've got a lot of things in their favour in regards to heat where as we've got some things that are scuppering it in this country despite GW.

We've actually got a pretty good answer in terms of how hot it can get right now.

Back in June 2019 (1 month before the record in July 2019) we pulled up a really exceptionally hot airmass from the SSE. 850hpa temps were just a touch under 25c (Aug 03 and July 19 were about 22.5-23c) it came just around the summer Solstice. It had the highest ever recorded thicknesses to boot as well. Using typical lapse rates it could have resulted in temperatures around 42C, maybe close to 43C for the SE given it was aloft over us for about 5 days.

So why didn't we get that record? Well a pesky cool undercut happened from the ENE at the very lowest level (literally bottom 500m or so) which meant surface temperatures were pretty basically the same as those at 850hpa, and on the east coast significantly below.

Still given that was our highest ever 850hpa and thickness readings, we can probably deduce the absolute max temperature the UK can get right now is probably in the 42-43C range IF everything comes together. So I'd say 40C is very possible as well, though still requires a ton of things to come together given we've only ever had the set-up aloft for it once.

Edited June 3, 2022 by kold weather

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I think 40c is possible, but as said, conditions, timing and wind direction is absolutely critical. A couple of times July 2015 and July 2019 saw what looked like the perfect opportunities to nail it. However, high level cloud scuppered it on both occasions frustratingly. It really is a tall order to even break into 38c (only twice since records begun has it happened) and Belgium and the Netherlands have only recorded the 40’s once in their history (July 2019) and they have a huge benefit of the continental landmass with a Southerly, diverting away influence by the North Sea. That last 2c push from 38 through 39c and into 40 requires an exceptional setup, bear in mind we haven’t even topped 39c yet. 

[Row w]

Not looking too bad here at the moment suns shining around 20c mark and just some light cloud hope it stays that way for a BBQ this afternoon a slight threat of showers, please excuse Aldi in the background I in no way am endorsing them

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, kold weather said:

 

So why didn't we get that record? Well a pesky cool undercut happened from the ENE at the very lowest level (literally bottom 500m or so) which meant surface temperatures were pretty basically the same as those at 850hpa, and on the east coast significantly below.

Exactly... and the very reason for that cool undercut is precisely why it's going to be a tall order getting that 40 degrees here. Had we been mainland France for example, much less of an issue.

[Scorcher]

Much better than forecast by the BBC or Met today here. The Met Office forecast said 17C for a max here- it reached 18C before midday and there is very little cloud around now.

[cheeky_monkey]

14 hours ago, Don said:

49.6C? Jeez, what was the previous record?!

45.0c back in July 1937

[Don]

2 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

45.0c back in July 1937

Sod that! 

[Frost HoIIow]

8 hours ago, kold weather said:

We've actually got a pretty good answer in terms of how hot it can get right now.

Back in June 2019 (1 month before the record in July 2019) we pulled up a really exceptionally hot airmass from the SSE. 850hpa temps were just a touch under 25c (Aug 03 and July 19 were about 22.5-23c) it came just around the summer Solstice. It had the highest ever recorded thicknesses to boot as well. Using typical lapse rates it could have resulted in temperatures around 42C, maybe close to 43C for the SE given it was aloft over us for about 5 days.

So why didn't we get that record? Well a pesky cool undercut happened from the ENE at the very lowest level (literally bottom 500m or so) which meant surface temperatures were pretty basically the same as those at 850hpa, and on the east coast significantly below.

Still given that was our highest ever 850hpa and thickness readings, we can probably deduce the absolute max temperature the UK can get right now is probably in the 42-43C range IF everything comes together. So I'd say 40C is very possible as well, though still requires a ton of things to come together given we've only ever had the set-up aloft for it once.

Indeed. And that's the thing I've hinted at why it's always going to be a tall order to get very high temps here beyond about 40C. Everything here gets moderated. Despite very high 850hpa's as we're an island temps can quickly drop should the wind suddenly switch to a direction from off the N Sea with a longer sea track from colder waters and bring cloud in. That's why a light SSE drift is far more ideal as there's much less of a sea track. Of course this would always benefit SE England which is where an all time record would most likely be achieved and has done in the past.

Edited June 3, 2022 by Frost HoIIow