June 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Durham Weather]

Delightful Durham at 15.4C (+1.8) to 30th

Rainfall 32mm (-29mm)

(Deviations are from 1991-2020 means)

Edited June 30, 2022 by Durham Weather

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 15.5C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall 32.3mm 42% of the monthly average.

Final figure will be 15.5C so basically average.

[BruenSryan]

No CET or EWP yet as of writing this post.

Although it didn't break records or come close to doing so historically, it's good to note that the January to June period of 2022 in England has been the driest respective period since 2010.

2022: 290.7mm

2010: 290.0mm

Before that, have to go back to 1996 to find drier (288.0mm).

The driest on record was back on 1929 when Jan to Jun recorded only 198.7mm. 1976 was 2nd driest with 229.8mm. I'm interested in the SE England region in particular to see how 2022 compares historically.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield finished on 15.5C +0.8C so basically average. Rainfall well 27mm on the last day of the month pushed the total to 59.3mm 77.1% of the monthly average.

[BruenSryan]

2 hours ago, BruenSryan said:

No CET or EWP yet as of writing this post.

Although it didn't break records or come close to doing so historically, it's good to note that the January to June period of 2022 in England has been the driest respective period since 2010.

2022: 290.7mm

2010: 290.0mm

Before that, have to go back to 1996 to find drier (288.0mm).

The driest on record was back on 1929 when Jan to Jun recorded only 198.7mm. 1976 was 2nd driest with 229.8mm. I'm interested in the SE England region in particular to see how 2022 compares historically.

The data came in for the region in question a bit after I posted this and...

Again it didn't break historic records here but would you believe it was the driest January to June period in SE England/central southern England since 1976?

Apologies if this isn't the place for posting such data.

EDIT: Also, why do I keep getting duplicate images whenever I paste one?

Edited July 1, 2022 by BruenSryan

[The PIT]

I'm not surprised if it was wasn't for the 27mm that fell yesterday I would have been casting an eye through our rainfall records.

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, BruenSryan said:

No CET or EWP yet as of writing this post.

Although it didn't break records or come close to doing so historically, it's good to note that the January to June period of 2022 in England has been the driest respective period since 2010.

2022: 290.7mm

2010: 290.0mm

Before that, have to go back to 1996 to find drier (288.0mm).

The driest on record was back on 1929 when Jan to Jun recorded only 198.7mm. 1976 was 2nd driest with 229.8mm. I'm interested in the SE England region in particular to see how 2022 compares historically.

In contrast to those two years which were notably colder than all since 1996, it has been a much milder theme, unusual to see a dry mild combination.. the dry theme continued throughout all of 1996 and 2010 along with the cold theme. It has been a very different type of dry, high pressure often to our SW or west or over the UK this year, as opposed to our north and north east throughout much of 1996 and 2010.

[The PIT]

1 hour ago, BruenSryan said:

The data came in for the region in question a bit after I posted this and...

Again it didn't break historic records here but would you believe it was the driest January to June period in SE England/central southern England since 1976?

Apologies if this isn't the place for posting such data.

EDIT: Also, why do I keep getting duplicate images whenever I paste one?

Jyust checked ours and drier here than 1976 as well.

Just noticed 2011 was drier than both 76 and this year.

Edited July 1, 2022 by The PIT

[Roger J Smith]

Two of the three locations used for the CET show up on meteociel, Stonyhurst (Lancs) does not. I googled the location and can anyone confirm this, it's actually north of Blackburn in central Lancs. I had always assumed it was closer to Manchester. But the name is fairly common for street names in Lancs too. If it is that far north, it may explain some of the times we are surprised by how low the daily values are in given situations. 

I would think CET finished near 14.8, and the EWP will be confirmed (preliminary) tomorrow morning, at about 52-53 mm. 

There was a sharp gradient east to west (including Ireland) and in fact every forecast submitted verified somewhere between the North Sea and the coast of Kerry. Valentia had over 140 mm. When that value is confirmed I will move the scoring table from where it is now back in the thread, to here. There will be some minor changes as I had used 57.1 mm to generate the scoring. 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP has been posted at 50.2 mm. This will require a bit of adjustment to the scoring summary. When completed, I will move it to this post. Look for that later today. (and it will be tweaked again on the 5th when a final table value is assigned). 

[Roger J Smith]

Adjusted annual scoring

(June 50.2 mm) _ I am hoping they don't go back up on the 5th, the value is a bit lower than the forecast models had led me to believe, but it is what it is -- just different enough to disrupt the scoring around the top ranks as a lot of forecasts were fairly close in that range.

This table will be tweaked on the 5th when a final table value is available. 

For change in ranks, "n.c." means no change since last month.

(edit 5th _ in fact there was no change on 5th, table value posted is 50.2 mm)

 

Rank _ change _ Forecaster _____ Points ____ Avg error (rank) ___ June pts, rank 

 

_01 ___ n. c. ____ Freeze ___________48.25 ___ 20.61 (2) _ down 1 __ 5.68 (19)

_02 ___ up 2 ____Feb1991Blizzard_47.70 ___ 24.53 (5) _ down 1 __ 9.64 ( 3)

_03 ___ n. c. ____ The PIT __________ 47.26 ___ 21.59 (3) _ down 1 __ 8.32 ( 8.)

_04 ___ up 1 ____ Polar Gael ______ 46.00 ___ 26.31 (6) __ up 4_____10.00 ( 1) 

_05 ___ down 3 _ Bobd29 _________ 45.67 ___ 24.19 (4) _ down 1 __ 4.05 (26)

_06 ___ up 2 ____ SLEETY __________ 42.76 ___ 29.01 (14)_ up 7 _____ 8.38 ( 7) 

_07 ___ up 2 ____ Ed Stone ________ 41.04 ___ 27.24 (8) __ up 1 ____ 7.36 (12) 

_08 ___ up 11 ___ Mulzy ____________40.87 ___ 27.10 (7) __ up 6 ____ 9.04 ( 5) 

_09 ___ up 12 ___ DR(S)NO _________39.30 ___ 28.87 (13) _ up 7 ____ 8.80 ( 6) 

_10 ___ up 5 ____ seaside60 _______ 39.00 ___ 28.37 (10) _ up 2 ____ 6.16 (17) 

_11 ___ up 11 ___ Reef _____________ 38.31 ___ 28.47 (11) _ up 6 ____ 7.84 (10) 

_12 ___ up 8 _____J 10 ______________ 37.29 ___ 28.19 (9) __ up 6 ____ 6.76 (15)

_13 ___ up 5 ____ Don ______________37.17 ___ 32.47 (21) _ up 5 ____ 5.22 (21) 

_14 ___ down 7 _dancerwithwings_36.83 ___ 29.96 (15) _ down 7__2.63 (32) 

_15 ___ down 3 _ Mr Maunder ____ 36.41 ___ 28.53 (12) _ down 6__3.45 (29) 

_16 ___ down 4 _ Neil N ___________ 36.10 ___ 30.16 (16) _ down 5__3.09 (30) 

_17 ___ up 8 ____ weather-history _35.94 ___ 30.73 (17) _ up 7 ____ 6.88 (13) 

_18 ___ down 4 _ Jeff C _____________35.35 ___ 31.16 (19) _ down 3__2.40 (33) 

_19 ___down 13 _ Frigid ____________34.97 ___ 37.01 (32) _ down 9 __0.18 (44) 

_20 ___ up 4 _ prolongedSnowLover _34.39 ____32.77 (22) _ up 6 ____ 4.53 (24) 

_21 ___ up 5 ____ syed2878 ________33.99 ___ 35.77 (28) _ up 4 _____6.04 (18) 

_22 ___ down 5 _ Roger J Smith ____33.53 ___ 31.46 (20)_ down 15__0.90 (40) 

_23 ___ down 12 _virtualsphere ___ 33.52 ___ 33.67 (24)_ down 17__0.36 (43) 

_24 ___ down 14 _DiagonalRedLine_33.47___ 31.15 (18) _ down 5 __ no fcst

_25 ___ down 9 _ davehsug ________ 33.21 ___ 36.24 (30) _ down 8 __ 0.54 (42) 

_26 ___ up 9 ____ summer blizzard_ 32.55 ___36.73 (31) _  up 5 _____ 8.20 ( 9) 

_27 ___ up 4 ___ summer8906 _____30.86 ___ 41.33 (41) _ up 2 _____ 5.45 (20) 

_28 ___ up 13 __ Wold Topper _____ 30.24 ___ 15.70 ( 1 ) _ -- -- _______ 9.28 ( 4) 

_29 ___ down 6 _Weather26 _______30.12 ___ 39.67 (39) _ down 21__ 0.00 (45) 

_30 ___ up 4 ____ Emmett Garland __ 29.96 ___ 37.50 (33) _ up 2 ______5.07 (22) 

_31 ___ up 6 ___ Godber 1 _________ 29.84 ___ 38.33 (35) _ up 2 _____ 6.40 (16) 

_32 ___ n. c. ____ February1978 ___ 29.66 ___ 33.04 (23) _ up 3 _____ 4.29 (25) 

_33 ___ down 6 _ daniel* __________ 29.54^___ 33.82 (25) _ down 6__ 1.71 (36) 

_34 ___ up 5 ___ Midlands Ice Age_ 29.44 ___ 39.27 (38) _ up 4 _____ 6.82 (14) 

_35 ___ down 6 _noname_weather_29.33 ___ 38.53 (36) _ down 3 __1.94 (34) 

_36 ___ n. c. ____ stargazer ________ 28.76 ___ 34.15 (26) __ up 3 ____ 4.77 (23) 

_37 ___ down 5 _ rwtwm __________ 28.73 ___ 36.69 (34) __ down 3 __ 1.87 (35) 

_38 ___ down 9 _ Norrance ________ 27.24 ___ 34.65 (27) _ down 2 ___ no fcst

_39 ___ down 6 _ SteveB ___________ 25.01 ___ 47.68 (47) _ down 2 ____ no fcst

_40 ___ n. c. ____ Stationary Front _ 23.75 ___ 39.13 (37) _ down 7 ____ 1.14 (39) 

_41 ___ down 4 _ stewfox __________ 22.79 ___ 45.06 (46) _ down 3 ____ no fcst

_42 ___ n. c. ____I Rem Atl 252 _____ 21.83 ___ 48.10 (48) _ down 1 ____ 3.57 (28) 

_43 ___ n. c. ____ jonboy ___________ 21.68 ___ 40.64 (40) __ down 1 ___ 3.86 (27)

_44 ___ up 9 ____shillitocettwo ____ 21.45 ___ 49.04 (50) _ down 2 ____ 7.60 (11)

_45 ___ up 1 ____ snowray _________ 20.68 ___ 40.39 (43) __ down 2 ___ 2.97 (31)

_46 ___ n. c. ____ summer18 _______ 18.92 ___ 48.73 (49) __ down 3 ___ 1.48 (37)

_47 ___ down 3 _ Let It Snow! ______ 17.75 ___ 43.35 (44) __ down 4 ___ no fcst

_ from this point on, only those who entered June or who have a ranked avg error appear _

_49 ___ n. c. ____BlastFromThePast _16.28 ___ 44.64 (45) __ down 7 __ 0.72 (41)

_50 ___ up 11 ___ Earthshine _______15.95 ___ 35.93 (29) _ -- -- ________ 9.76 ( 2)

_55 ___ down 1 _ coldest winter ____12.70 ___ 40.96 (41) _ down 7 ____ 1.26 (38)

________________________________________________

^ daniel* has 33.24 points with ineligible 4d late May forecast (3.80) and an avg error of 30.26 mm (counting the 8.8 mm)

 

Edited July 5, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

Still nothing from Hadley since the 26th. This 'new' system they've moved to is worse than the old one!

[richie3846]

26 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Still nothing from Hadley since the 26th. This 'new' system they've moved to is worse than the old one!

At least it shows accurate numbers when it does update! The old one was a shambles really, with some of the end of the month corrections, it seemed barely worth following some months. Other months had lesser corrections of course, but I'd rather have this periodic and accurate update, it has to be better than a daily guess surely?

[Earthshine]

37 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

At least it shows accurate numbers when it does update! The old one was a shambles really, with some of the end of the month corrections, it seemed barely worth following some months. Other months had lesser corrections of course, but I'd rather have this periodic and accurate update, it has to be better than a daily guess surely?

Yep much rather a later but unadjusted figure at the end of the month.  Previous CET system was much worse than the new one.

[damianslaw]

Why is there a delay in the CET figure for June? Indeed updates recent days have been non-existant. 

[Roger J Smith]

I think the CET will probably finish between 14.8 to 15.0, it likely didn't move much after the 26th when last seen at 14.9. I looked up the max and min for the locations used for the CET and they averaged just about 15 for the 27th-30th, which would mean 14.9 would have held on.

These were the forecasts and their order of finish from 14.9, will edit this table if it's not 14.9 ...

... and it was 14.9, so the only changes made are to show the late forecasts in "best combined" order ... this is roughly how they will fare in the CET contest scoring once the scoring table incorporates the reductions.

... the table shows the order before those late adjustments which is why some ranks appear a bit out of order. 

 

Rank _ CET _ EWP __ Forecaster (order of entry) ___ Notes on best combined

_ 01 __ 14.9 _ 60.0 _ weather-history ( 19 ) _________13th EWP (1 + 13 = 14) 3rd best combined

_ 02 __ 14.9 _ 35.0 _ freeze ( 30 ) ___________________19th EWP (2 + 19 = 21) 4th best combined

_ 03 __ 14.8 _108.0_ virtualsphere ( 15 ) ___________ 43rd EWP (3 + 43 = 46)

_ 04 __ 14.8 _ 45.0 _ summer blizzard ( 28 ) ________ 9th EWP (4 + 9 = 13) 2nd best combined

_ 05 __ 15.0 _ 68.0 _ Stargazer ( 31 ) ________________23rd EWP (5 + 23 = 28) 7th best combined

_ 06 __ 14.8 _ 53.0 _ Mulzy ( 39 ) ____________________ 5th EWP (6 + 5 = 11) _ best combined _

_ 07 __ 15.0 _ 71.0 _ February 1978 ( 45 ) ___________25th EWP (7 + 25 = 32) t10th best combined

_ 08 __ 15.1 _ 79.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 10 ) ________ 32nd EWP (8 + 32 = 40)

_ 09 __ 14.7 _ ------ _ StretfordEnd1996 ( 12 ) _______ 

_ 10 __ 14.7 _ 90.0 _ Summer18 ( 17 ) ______________ 37th EWP (10 + 37 = 47)

_ 11 __ 15.1 _ ------ _ Summer Sun ( 26 ) ____________

_ 12 __ 15.1 _ ------ _ Walsall Wood Snow ( 37 ) _____

_ 13 __ 15.1 _ 77.0 _ snowray ( 47 ) ________________ 31st EWP (13 + 31 = 44)

_ 14 __ 15.1 _ 60.0 _ J 10 ( 48 ) _____________________15th EWP (14 + 15 = 29) 8th best combined

_ 15 __ 15.2 _ 56.0 _ Reef ( 24 ) ____________________ 10th EWP (15 + 10 = 25) 6th best combined

_ 16 __ 14.6 _ 98.8 _ Roger J Smith ( 35 ) ___________40th EWP

_ 17 __ 15.2 _ 76.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 36 ) ____________29th EWP (17 + 29 = 46)

_ 18 __ 15.3 _ 73.0 _ Bobd29 ( 4 ) __________________26th EWP (18 + 26 = 44)

_ 19 __ 15.3 _ 48.0 _ Wold Topper ( 16 ) ___________ 4th EWP (19 + 4 = 23) 5th best combined

_ 20 __ 15.3 _ 67.0 _ Don ( 41 ) _____________________21st EWP (20 + 21 = 41)

_ 21 __ 14.5 _ 89.0 _ daniel* ( 46 ) _________________ 36th EWP 

_ 22 __ 14.5 _ ------ _ Mark Bayley ( 50 ) _____________

_(25)__ 15.3 _ ------ _ Duncan McAlister ( L2-1 ) _____

_ 23 __ 15.4 _ ------ _ Richie3846 ( 7 ) _______________ 

_ 24 __ 14.4 _ 77.0 _ NeilN ( 18 ) ___________________ 30th EWP

_ 26 __ 14.4 _102.0_ BlastFromThePast ( 33 ) _____ 41st EWP

_ 27 __ 15.5 _ 80.0 _ JeffC ( 9 )  ____________________ 33rd EWP

_ 28 __ 15.5 _ 55.0 _ Dr(S)No ( 14 ) ________________ 6th EWP (28 + 6 = 34)

_ 29 __ 14.3 _ 94.0 _ coldest winter ( 22 ) _________ 38th EWP

_ 30 __ 15.5 _ 94.0 _ Stationary Front ( 37 ) _______ 39th EWP

_ 31 __ 15.6 _ 50.2 _ Polar Gael ( 13 ) _____________ 1st EWP (31 + 1 = 32)  t10th best combined

_ 32 __ 15.6 _ 45.0 _ The PIT ( 20 ) _________________8th EWP (32 + 8 = 40)

_ 33 __ 15.6 _ 58.0 _ Ed Stone ( 21 ) ______________ 12th EWP (33+12 =45)

_ 34 __ 15.6 _ 25.0 _ jonboy ( 25 ) _________________27th EWP

_ 35 __ 14.2 _ 66.3 _ summer8906 ( 29 ) __________20th EWP

_ 36 __ 15.6 _ ------ _ damianslaw ( 42 ) ___________

_(38)__ 15.6 _ 58.6 _ Midlands Ice Age ( L1-1 ) ____14th EWP 

_ 37 __ 15.7 _ 52.0 _ Feb1991Blizzard ( 27 ) _______ 3rd EWP (38+3 = 41)

_ 39 __ 15.7 _ 83.0 _ noname_weather ( 43 ) _____ 34th EWP

_ 40 __ 14.1 _105.0_ davehsug ( 44 ) _____________ 42nd EWP

_ 41 __ 14.1 _ ------ _ Kentish Man ( 49 ) __________

_ 42 __ 14.0 _ 57.0 _ shillitocettwo ( 23 ) _________ 11th EWP 

_ 43 __ 15.8 _ 65.0 _ seaside60 ( 40 ) _____________ 17th EWP

_ 44 __ 13.9 _134.0_ Weather26 ( 3 ) _____________ 45th EWP

_ 45 __ 13.9 _ 76.0 _ IRememberAtl252 ( 6 ) ______ 28th EWP

_ 46 __ 13.9 _ 65.0 _ syed2878 ( 32 ) ______________ 18th EWP

_ 47 __ 16.0 _ ------ _ DiagonalRedLine ( 8 ) ________

_ 48 __ 13.8 _ 63.0 _ Godber 1 ( 34 ) ______________ 16th EWP

_ 49 __ 13.7 _110.0_ Frigid ( 2 ) ___________________ 44th EWP

_(51)__ 16.2 _ 81.0 _ rwtwm ( L1-3 ) ______________ 25th EWP

_(52)__ 16.5 _ 55.0 _ SLEETY ( L1-2 ) ______________ 7th EWP

_ 50 __ 16.7 _ 62.0 _ Earthshine ( 1 ) ______________ 2nd EWP

_ 53 __ 16.9 _ 69.0 _ prolongedSnowLover ( 5 ) ___24th EWP

_ 54 __ 17.4 _ 33.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 11 ) _______22nd EWP

 _______________________________

CET rank adjustments for late penalties not yet shown, will incorporate those when CET value is confirmed. 

Only those combined ranks totalling 50 or less are shown with their totals, and only top ten are shown ranked (best combined)

 

Edited July 4, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

On 02/07/2022 at 14:02, richie3846 said:

At least it shows accurate numbers when it does update! The old one was a shambles really, with some of the end of the month corrections, it seemed barely worth following some months. Other months had lesser corrections of course, but I'd rather have this periodic and accurate update, it has to be better than a daily guess surely?

I fail to see how going 8 days without an update is better than the old one, in all honesty.

[Earthshine]

40 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

I fail to see how going 8 days without an update is better than the old one, in all honesty.

The old one wasn't accurate until the end of the month correction, which was normally at least a couple of days after the end of the month.

[Summer Sun]

26 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

The old one wasn't accurate until the end of the month correction, which was normally at least a couple of days after the end of the month.

I think the old site always gave the final CET with corrections on the 1st via a file, then on the 2nd via the main CET page

[Earthshine]

16 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

I think the old site always gave the final CET with corrections on the 1st via a file, then on the 2nd via the main CET page

Ah didn't realise that!  Perhaps it's just teething issues at this stage with the new CET

[Summer Sun]

June confirmed as 14.9c +0.8c

[Relativistic]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

I fail to see how going 8 days without an update is better than the old one, in all honesty.

It's possible someone in charge was on leave. Besides, delays of several days used to happen with the legacy data, too.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

At 14.9c June 2022 shares the same mean CET with June's:

1727

1751

1782

1806

1829

1845

1934

1963

2000

[Freeze]

Bang on twice in a row, I'm amazed. Can it be thrice??? 

[J10]

Excel ->June 22 CET.xlsx

PDF -> June 2022 Summary.pdf

Monthly

Two players got it spot on this month, Weather-history and Freeze.

Seasonal

The Seasonal Competition Top 10 matches the monthly Top 10, with  virtualsphere rounding out the Top 3.

Overall

A few changes in the Top 3, with Freeze up to 1st from 2nd after getting it spot on this month.
richie3846 in 2nd from 1st and
Stationary Front staying in 3rd.