Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[Supacell]

3 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

 

@Supacell How's your view of that cell that was near Skipton, photographic evidence of the cell will be key here to see if it has exhibited any supercellular characteristics. Too many people nowadays scream Supercell just by radar signature.

Unfortunately I didn't get to see it until it had died down somewhat. No real structure to speak of by the time i caught it, although I expect it would have been hidden from view by the intense rainfall.

[Zak M]

29 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A strike that occurred here last night was quite possibly a CG+

I've had a look at the video and tried to break the frames up, and from what I gathered, there's no branching on the bolt, and there was no visible pulsing from it, just a 

  

Insanely loud, and from around 2 miles away.

It definitely sounded like it judging by the thunder as well - it was similar to a sonic boom.

Edited May 16, 2022 by Zak M

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 hours ago, Southern Storm said:

Hi storm fans 

It's really nice to see other areas getting in on the action, and for those that haven't had a storm yet, your time will come.

Well done to all those that managed to take photos of the storms, there have been some absolute beautiful shots posted on here over the past few days, and hopefully we get some crackers from up north too

Saturday and Sunday are definitely in my all time top ten list, and it's only May! 

Fingers crossed this is just the beginning of a great storm season, and one we will be talking about for years to come!

Here is a selection of some of the pictures taken last night, now that I have had a chance to edit them properly 

These are remarkable

congrats on finding the right moments last night in what was a very unpredictable event!

I hope you don’t mind but I was fiddling with the last shot on my phone and quite liked the result, a truly great picture - thanks so much for sharing!

[Sprites]

4 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Oh yeah definitely Friday is way too far out to pin down any details!

Anyway talking about today, Skipton cell possibly supercellular.

 

3 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Judging by the last two days, we've seen greater Theta-W advection westwards than the models have gone for and since Wednesday is a continuation of a similar theme I'm not quite as confident with the forecast.

@Supacell How's your view of that cell that was near Skipton, photographic evidence of the cell will be key here to see if it has exhibited any supercellular characteristics. Too many people nowadays scream Supercell just by radar signature.

[Ben Sainsbury]

GFS, ICON & ARPEGE 18z are all an improvement on their 12z runs for Wednesday night.

Edited May 16, 2022 by Ben Sainsbury

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

3 minutes ago, Sprites said:

 

the S word needs rationing

[Marcus_surfer]

Not storm related but this is outside right now the moon illuminating the clouds

Edited May 16, 2022 by Marcus_surfer

[Mapantz]

I've already got withdrawals after last nights epic show..

[matt111]

39 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I've already got withdrawals after last nights epic show..

I seems eerily quiet now to me after hearing thunder both last night and the night before 

[Weather-history]

 

[ChannelThunder]

@Alderc That's very true, they do get a better share overall! If this year pans out like 2018, in which we did well in Spring down here, they'll get some monsters in July!

@Southern Storm amazing shots from Sunday! That CG at the end looks like it landed somewhere close to where I was chasing that night! I did have a few super-close blinders land not too far away with some great shotgun thunder!

I forgot to mention the other thing that made Sunday night so great: the full moon! The way it was occasionally punching through the AC Cas and illuminating the storms themselves was a thing of beauty! I tried my best to get a shot including lightning plus moon-lit towers but it didn't happen. 

 

[The Tall Weatherman]

What are your thoughts on today?

[sheikhy]

Ecm loooks a lot better for storms to break out tomorrow evening/night for east wales,midlands and eastern england!!!thats more like it need a more widespread thunderstorm unlike the one from the other night which was pretty much oxford southward!!

[Paul]

Nick's just issued a storm forecast for today:

Severe Convective Weather & Storms Forecast - Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

[Harry]

Pleasant skies this morning some signs of Ac nice and early on.

[Norfolk Sheep]

2 hours ago, Lance M said:

@Alderc That's very true, they do get a better share overall! If this year pans out like 2018, in which we did well in Spring down here, they'll get some monsters in July!

@Southern Storm amazing shots from Sunday! That CG at the end looks like it landed somewhere close to where I was chasing that night! I did have a few super-close blinders land not too far away with some great shotgun thunder!

I forgot to mention the other thing that made Sunday night so great: the full moon! The way it was occasionally punching through the AC Cas and illuminating the storms themselves was a thing of beauty! I tried my best to get a shot including lightning plus moon-lit towers but it didn't happen. 

 

I've only ever managed one "moon and lightning" pic, and that was in 2019 around 4am....

[Nick F]

2 hours ago, Paul said:

Nick's just issued a storm forecast for today:

Severe Convective Weather & Storms Forecast - Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

Also just looking at the risk of thunderstorms tomorrow too, as warm moist high theta-e plume returns briefly to SE England & East Anglia Weds evening.

Potential for some intense #thunderstorms to develop on nose of the plume as trough moves in from SW & engages unstable plume, perhaps an MCS developing -with a  risk of frequent lightning, hail, strong wind gusts and torrential downpours. But it comes with the usual uncertainty that the risk may get shunted further east and just clip Kent / go up through Dover Straits. Be nice if it comes off as 06z UKV depicts!

06z UKV for 23z Weds:

Theta-e plume:

MUCAPE - showing instability of plume

Fax chart shows trough engaging plume:

[Sprites]

1 hour ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

I've only ever managed one "moon and lightning" pic, and that was in 2019 around 4am....

t

I think this was the same morning I got a similar photo, IIRC July 26th 2019. 

 

Edited May 17, 2022 by Sprites

[Ben Sainsbury]

Another good set of 06z runs for tomorrow night, pretty much ever model has the thunderstorms/MCS tomorrow night making landfall around the Brighton area. AROME 6z a good example of this, ARPEGE is remarkably further west but this is an outlier at this point.

[Harry]

22 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Another good set of 06z runs for tomorrow night, pretty much ever model has the thunderstorms/MCS tomorrow night making landfall around the Brighton area. AROME 6z a good example of this, ARPEGE is remarkably further west but this is an outlier at this point.

Agreed - I can already envision how tomorrow evening will pan out (if it doesn't do the eastward shift) - evening storms arriving in Brighton - I sit patiently watching lightning flashes way off to my south - thunder rumbles get louder as it approaches and rain falls overhead, forcing me to dangle from an upstairs window - lightning gets brighter and more frequent as it pushes to my east - mates start texting saying they're having an amazing storm - I reply saying the distant flashes and rumbles sound and look amazing 

Edited May 17, 2022 by Harry

[Harry]

09z UKV watered down potential for this evening - heaviest showers going through the Channel.

As for tomorrow evening, however, WOW!!!! A MASSIVE upgrade by way of westerly and northerly extent.

Edited May 17, 2022 by Harry

[Mizzle]

I fancy another chase tomorrow, but am limited a bit on distance to travel (I.e. within an hour or so of Fleet). Am looking at Selsey or thereabouts - what are anyone else's thoughts on that choice of location and/or any better suggestions ( I don't know those areas so well).

TIA x

[Paul]

Meanwhile in the USA, another supercell! 

 

[offerman]

Certainly was an incredible storm event . Hoping for more of the same over this summer .

Heres a few photos from my area of storms. 

[Harry]

Over 25C here now - warmest day of the year so far. Feels great!

Bit of heating won’t harm the admittedly low chances of a possible storm later.