May 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[February1978]

12.2c & 71mm please

[Roger J Smith]

Table of forecasts for May, 2022

 

Number in brackets shows order of entry

 

CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (order) _______ CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (order)

16.1 _ 61.0 _ prolongedSnowLover (L1-1) __12.2 _ 64.0 _ summer8906 ( 28 ) _________

15.5 _ 50.0 _ Thundershine ( 11 ) ________12.2 _ ------ _ Summer Sun ( 29 ) __________

14.5 _ 40.5 _ Roger J Smith ( 32 ) ________ 12.2 _ ------ _ damianslaw ( 38 ) ___________

14.2 _ 47.0 _ virtualsphere ( 13 ) ________ 12.2 _ 71.0 _ February1978 ( 46 ) ________

13.6 _ 88.0 _ Weather26 ( 37 ) ___________ 12.2 _ ------ _ Walsall Wood Snow (L1-3) _

13.4_126.0_ shillitocettwo ( 06 ) _________12.1 _ 58.0 _ Wold Topper ( 21 ) _________ 

13.2 _ ------ _ Mark Bayley ( 34 ) __________12.1 _ 49.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 15, 1 ) __

13.1 _ 53.0 _ Feb1991Blizzard ( 20 ) _____ 12.1 _ ------ _ Duncan McAlister ( 45 )

13.1 _ 50.0 _ freeze ( 41 ) ________________ 12.0 _ 35.0 _ DiagonalRedLine ( 05 ) _____

13.0 _ 63.4 _ Bobd29 ( 01 ) ______________ 12.0 _ 55.0 _ MrMaunder ( 26 ) __________

13.0 _ 50.0 _ EdStone ( 16 ) ______________ 11.9 _ 77.0 _ NeilN ( 03 ) _________________

13.0 _ 97.0 _ IRememberAtl252 ( 30 ) ____ 11.9 _ 65.0 _ weather-history ( 19 ) ______

13.0 _ 60.0 _ Don ( 44 ) ___________________ 11.9 _ 30.0 _ Norrance ( 24 ) _____________

12.9 _ 56.0 _ SteveB ( 12 ) ________________ 11.9 _ 30.0 _ summer blizzard ( 27 ) _____ 

12.9 _ 63.0 _ Emmett Garland (L2-1) ____ 11.9 _ 91.0 _ jonboy (L2-2) _______________

12.8 _ 77.0 _ summer18 ( 04 ) ____________ 11.9 _ 62.7 _ 1991-2020 average * ___

12.8 _ ------ _ richie3846 ( 07 ) _____________ 11.8 _ 51.0 _ The PIT ( 08 ) _______________

12.8 _ 47.0 _ davehsug ( 42 ) ______________ 11.8 _ 17.0 _ Earthshine ( 09 ) ____________

12.8 _ 57.0 _ seaside60 (L1-4) _____________

12.7 _ 56.0 _ noname_weather ( 39 ) ______11.7 _ 47.0 _ Mulzy ( 35 ) _________________

12.7 _ 75.0 _ J 10 ( 43 ) _____________________11.7 _ 63.6 _ 1981-2010 average ___

12.6 _ 77.4 _ Polar Gael ( 02 ) ______________11.4 _ 75.0 _ snowray ( 18 ) ______________

12.5 _ 70.0 _ Reef ( 23 ) ____________________11.1 _111.0_ Godber 1 ( 10 ) ____________

12.5 _ 65.0 _ Jeff C (L1-5) __________________

12.4 _ 64.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 22 ) _______________10.9 _ ------ _ Kentish Man ( 36 ) __________

12.4 _ 54.0 _ Stationary Front ( 31 ) _______10.8 _ 55.0 _ rwtwm ( 14 ) _______________

12.3 _ 55.0 _ Frigid ( 33 ) __________________ 10.6 _ 68.8 _ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 25 ) ___

12.3 _ 51.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 40 ) ______ 10.4 _ 65.0 _ SLEETY (L1-2) _______________

12.3 _ 59.0 _ consensus ___________________ 10.3 _ 51.0 _ syed2878 ( 17 ) _____________

 

46 on time entries, and five so far that were one day late, with two more at two days late ...

... 53 total ... consensus (median) 12.3

* (1992-2021 average 11.9 _ 66.3 mm)

=================================

EWP entries in order

126_shil ... 111_Godber ... 97_IRem ... 91_jon^^ ... 88_wx26 ...  77.4_PG ... 77_NeilN,sum18 ...

 75_snow, J10 ... 71_Feb78 ... 70_Reef ... 68.8_KW ...  65_wx-his, SLE^,Jeff^ ...

 64_DR(S), sum8906 ... 63.6_81-10 ... 63.4_Bobd ... 63_EG^^ ... 62.7 ... 91-20 ... 61_psl^ ... 60_Don ... 59_con

 58_WT ... 57_sea^... 56_Ste,non ... 55_rwtwm, MrM, Frig ... 54_SF ... 53_Feb91 ... 51_PIT,syed, MIA

 50_Thun, EdS, fre ... 49_dww ... _47_virt, Mul, dave ... 40.5_RJS ... 35_DRL ... 30_Norr, sb ... 17_Earth

__________________________

40 on time entries, plus four marked one day late ^ and two more at two days late ^^

46 total ... consensus (median) 59.0 mm

 

Later entries will be added to the end of 3rd of May, the absolute deadline. 

Edited May 2, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

16.1c and 61mm pls.

[SLEETY]

10.4 c  .65mm  thanks

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Hope I'm not too late. If not I'll go for 12.2c please.

[seaside 60]

Opps late again.

12.8c

57mm

thanks

[JeffC]

Had a lot on of late, apologies..

12.5 C and 65 mms please

[Roger J Smith]

1981-2010 CET May averages and extremes 1772-2021

 

DATE ____ AVG __ CUM AVG _______ MAX yr ___ MIN yr _______ Running CET extremes

___ 01 ___ 10.6 ___ 10.6 ________16.1 1990,2005 _ 4.2 1866 ____ 16.1 1990,2005_ 4.2 1866

___ 02 ___ 10.4 ___ 10.5 __________ 16.4 1966 __ 3.8 1979 _____ 15.9 1966 ___ 4.1 1979

___ 03 ___ 10.5 ___ 10.5 __________ 17.7 1990 __ 3.1 1877 _____ 16.4 1990 ___ 4.3 1979

___ 04 ___ 10.3 ___ 10.5 __________ 18.0 1834 __ 3.2 1877 _____ 16.8 1990 ___ 4.4 1979

___ 05 ___ 10.6 ___ 10.5 __________ 16.7 1800 __ 4.0 1979 _____ 16.5 1990 ___ 4.3 1979

___ 06 ___ 11.0 ___ 10.6 __________ 18.8 1867 __ 4.4 1831 _____ 16.0 1990 ___ 4.6 1877, 1979

___ 07 ___ 11.0 ___ 10.7 __________ 16.9 2018 __ 4.1 1879 _____ 15.2 1990 ___ 5.1 1782, 1877, 1979

___ 08 ___ 10.9 ___ 10.7 __________ 17.8 2016 __ 2.9 1861 _____ 14.7 1804, 1995 _ 5.2 1782

___ 09 ___ 10.7 ___ 10.7 _______ 17.6 1945,2016 _ 5.7 1837 ___ 14.8 1800 ___ 5.6 1782

___ 10 ___ 10.8 ___ 10.7 __________ 18.2 1959 __ 4.1 1879  ____ 14.7 2008 ___ 6.0 1782

___ 11 ___ 11.1 ___ 10.7 __________ 18.6 2008 __ 4.1 1773  ____ 15.0 2008 ___ 6.3 1782, 1879

___ 12 ___ 11.3 ___ 10.8 __________ 18.8 1945 __ 4.4 1816  ____ 15.1 2008 ___ 6.6 1782

___ 13 ___ 11.6 ___ 10.8 __________ 17.4 1959 __ 5.0 1915  _____ 15.0 2008 ___ 6.9 1879, 1902

___ 14 ___ 11.7 ___ 10.9 __________ 18.8 1992 __ 3.9 1839  _____ 14.9 2008 ___ 6.7 1902

___ 15 ___ 11.7 ___ 11.0 __________ 20.0 1833 __ 4.3 1839  _____ 14.9 1833 ___ 6.7 1902

___ 16 ___ 11.5 ___ 11.0 __________ 20.0 1808 __ 5.2 1996  _____ 15.2 1833 ___ 6.9 1902

___ 17 ___ 11.3 ___ 11.0 __________ 19.7 1833 __ 3.6 1935  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.1 1855, 1902

___ 18 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.0 __________ 19.1 1952 __ 4.1 1872  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.2 1855, 1902, 1996

___ 19 ___ 11.8 ___ 11.1 __________ 20.4 1868 __ 5.2 1872  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.2 1902

___ 20 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.1 __________ 17.8 1916 __ 5.5 1907  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.2 1902

___ 21 ___ 12.1 ___ 11.2 __________ 18.8 1916 __ 5.7 1894  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.2 1902

___ 22 ___ 12.2 ___ 11.2 __________ 19.5 1918 __ 5.0 1867  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.3 1902

___ 23 ___ 12.8 ___ 11.3 __________ 19.5 1922 __ 4.9 1867  _____ 15.5 1833 ___ 7.6 1902

___ 24 ___ 13.3 ___ 11.4 __________ 18.8 1953 __ 5.7 1867  _____ 15.5 1833 ___ 7.9 1902

___ 25 ___ 12.5 ___ 11.4 __________ 21.0 1953 __ 6.5 1814  _____ 15.6 1833 ___ 8.0 1885

___ 26 ___ 12.4 ___ 11.5 ________18.7 1784,2017__4.6 1821_____ 15.5 1833 ___ 8.1 1782, 1885

___ 27 ___ 12.1 ___ 11.5 __________ 19.0 1788 __ 6.6 1984  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 8.2 1782

___ 28 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.5 __________ 20.6 1847 __ 6.2 1869  _____ 15.3 1833 ___ 8.5 1782, 1885, 1996

___ 29 ___ 12.8 ___ 11.6 __________ 21.2 1780 __ 6.2 1869 _____ 15.2 1833 ___ 8.7 1782,1879,1902,1996

___ 30 ___ 13.1 ___ 11.6 __________ 21.0 1944 __ 4.9 1807 _____ 15.1 1833 ___ 8.7 1817, 1902

___ 31 ___ 13.3 ___ 11.7 __________ 20.5 1947 __ 6.4 1802  _____ 15.1 1833 ___ 8.7 1817#

# 8.7 was lowest during daily data period but 1698 finished on 8.5 and 1740 on 8.6, these could have had lower running CET values at various points before 31st as well. 

See this post 2 years ago (May 2020 contest thread) for information about when daily CET has exceeded 20.0, all dozen or so cases were no later than 1953. 

We may finally break that drought this year perhaps. (not all of those 20+ days are daily records, most are).

___________________________________________________________________________

1991-2020 daily and cumulative CET values 

date _ mean __ cum ____ date _ mean __ cum ______ date _ mean __ cum ___ date _ mean _ cum

01 ___10.5 ___10.5 _____ 11 ___11.3 ___ 10.9 _____ 21 ___12.5 ___11.3 ____ 31 ___ 13.7 __ 11.9

02 ___10.4 ___10.5 _____ 12 ___11.2 ___ 11.0 _____ 22 ___12.8 ___11.4 ____

03 ___10.1 ___10.3 _____ 13 ___11.4 ___ 11.0 _____ 23 ___13.0 ___11.4 ____

04 ___10.4 ___10.4 _____ 14 ___11.3 ___ 11.0 _____ 24 ___13.4 ___11.5 ____

05 ___10.7 ___10.5 _____ 15 ___11.3 ___ 11.0 _____ 25 ___12.8 ___11.6 ____

06 ___11.2 ___10.6 _____ 16 ___11.3 ___ 11.1 _____ 26 ___13.0 ___11.6 ____

07 ___11.6 ___10.7 _____ 17 ___11.3 ___ 11.1 _____ 27 ___13.1 ___11.7 ____

08 ___11.5 ___10.8 _____ 18 ___11.7 ___ 11.1 _____ 28 ___13.1 ___11.7 ____

09 ___11.3 ___10.9 _____ 19 ___12.2 ___ 11.2 _____ 29 ___13.2 ___11.8 ____

10 ___11.4 ___10.9 _____ 20 ___12.5 ___ 11.2 _____ 30 ___13.5 ___ 11.8 ____

__________________________

[Summer Sun]

10.9c to the 1st

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 10.9c on the 1st
Current low this month 10.9c on the 1st

[emmett garland]

So so late can't believe its the 2nd 12.9 and 63mm please Roger 

[Earthshine]

I've got a feeling this May is gonna be a good one.  Who knows, maybe the first 14°C+ one since May 1833?

[jonboy]

very late 11.9 and 91mm

[Summer Sun]

11.4c to the 2nd

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.4c on the 2nd
Current low this month 10.9c on the 1st

[Summer Sun]

11.4c to the 3rd

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.4c on the 2nd & 3rd
Current low this month 10.9c on the 1st

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Could see a considerable warm up if the synoptics shown in the GFS 12z for weekend after next continue to show! Possible maxes of 25c+ ?

[Daniel*]

Oh jeez I forgot 13C and 50mm thanks seem my entry will only be for fun  

Edited May 5, 2022 by Daniel*

[Roger J Smith]

The warmest part of record warm 1833 was the middle of the month, several days with CET means around 20 C. The month was running as warm as 15.7 C before cooling down somewhat in the final week to finish 15.1. 

[Roger J Smith]

For continuity ... 

 

11.7c to the 4th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.7c on the 4th
Current low this month 10.9c on the 1st

==========================================

Also, EWP at 6 mm to 4th (and probably also to 5th) ...

looks to add 20 mm or so by 15th, small amounts suggested 16th-21st. 

CET looks to go on a tear, we could be seeing a battle with 1833 at this rate, but certainly a good chance of catching some or all of 2nd to 10th place Mays. Near the end of the 00z run, cooler air from the N-NE but knowing the GFS that will probably end up in the Baltic regions or Russia rather than the UK. Before that, days and days of near record warmth. Just a slight cooling middle of next week before the heat builds up. 

[summer blizzard]

How high did the CET get in 2008 Roger (i think that was our high water mark in terms of challenging 1833). 

[Summer Sun]

11.9c to the 5th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average
1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.9c on the 5th
Current low this month 10.9c on the 1st

[Roger J Smith]

8 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

How high did the CET get in 2008 Roger (i think that was our high water mark in terms of challenging 1833). 

2008 had an average of 15.1 on the 12th and was still ahead of 1833 on the 14th (14.9) but 1833 then had the highest running averages to the end with the peak of 15.6 on the 25th. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 11.4C +2.2C above normal. Rainfall 3.4mm 5.7% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

12.1c to the 6th

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average
1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.1c on the 6th
Current low this month 10.9c on the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 11.6C +2.2C above normal. Rainfall 4.8mm 8.1% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

If the current guidance verifies we will probably be into the 14s after mid-month and could reach a point equal to 1833 at some time after the 18th. Remarkable given how far out in front 1833 is among the final values. To see where 1833 was after it took over the lead from 2008 on the 15th, scroll back to my post of CET values on the 2nd and those extreme running CET values are in the last columns of the table.