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April 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

Roger J Smith
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Wold Topper Maestro

Wold Topper

Posted
  • Location: East coast side of the Yorkshire Wolds, 66m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, and plenty of warm sunny days!
  • Location: East coast side of the Yorkshire Wolds, 66m ASL
Posted

8.3c and 91mm please

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Godber 1 Contributor

Godber 1

Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
Posted

7.6 and 102mm please.

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JeffC Accomplished

JeffC

Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
Posted

7.8C and 77mm please

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted

Hmm, this seems to be getting harder and harder but I will have a stab with 7.7C and 80mm, please.

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Norrance Maestro

Norrance

Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
Posted

8.8C and 55mms please.

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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Author
Posted (edited)

___ Table of entries for April 2022 ___

 

CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (entry) __________________ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (entry)

10.4__ 61.2 _ Polar Gael ( 05 ) ____________________8.3 __ 65.0 _ virtualsphere ( 11 ) __

10.2__ 59.4 _ Bobd29 ( 03 ) _______________________8.3 __ ----- _ Summer Sun ( 17 ) ____

10.1__ 79.0 _ rwtwm ( 43 ) ________________________8.3 __ 65.0 _ stewfox ( 27 ) _________

10.0__ 72.0 _ Weather26 ( 09 ) ___________________ 8.3 __ 60.0 _ weather-history ( 29 ) _

 9.6 __ 67.0 _ feb1991blizzard ( 08 ) ______________ 8.3 __ 91.0 _ Wold Topper ( 47 ) _____

 9.5 __ 71.0 _ snowray ( 04 ) _______________________8.2 __ 69.0 _ Reef ( 13 ) ______________

 9.4 __ ------ _ Richie3846 ( 15 ) ____________________ 8.2 __ 79.0 _ Mulzy ( 40 ) ______________

 9.4 __ 70.0 _ Earthshine ( 36 ) ____________________ 8.1 __ 64.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 18 ) __

 9.4 __ 65.0 _ J 10 ( 54 ) ___________________________

 9.3 __ 79.0 _ seaside60 ( 21 ) _____________________8.0 __ 22.0 _ Shillitocettwo ( 06 ) _____

 9.2 __ 75.0 _ EdStone ( 31 ) _______________________8.0 _ 114.0 _ noname_weather ( 37 ) ___ 

 9.2 __ 60.1 _ prolongedSnowLover ( 49 ) _________8.0 __ 81.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 41 ) ____

 9.1 __ 67.0 _ SteveB ( 02 ) ________________________ 7.9 __ 90.0 _ Summer18 ( 14 ) ___________ 

 9.1 __ 55.0 _ The PIT ( 24 ) ________________________ 7.8 __ 60.0 _ I Remember Atlantic 252 ( 10 ) _

 9.0 __ 82.0 _ Stationary Front ( 35 ) ______________ 7.8 __ 82.0 _ coldest winter ( 33 ) ______

 8.9 __ 81.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 42 ) __________________ 7.8 __ 77.0 _ Jeff C ( 50 ) ________________

 8.9 __ 83.0 _ February1978 ( 53 ) _________________7.8 __ ----- _ Walsall Wood Snow ( 56 ) ___

 8.9 __ 63.2 __ 1991-2020 average__________________7.7 __ 54.0 _ Pegg24 ( 20 ) ______________

 8.8 _110.0 __ summer blizzard ( 39 ) _____________ 7.7 __ 77.0 _ jonboy ( 32 ) _______________

 8.8 __ 55.0 __ Norrance ( 52 ) _____________________ 7.7 __ 55.0 _ NeilN ( 34 ) _________________

 8.7 __ 60.0 _ DiagonalRedLine ( 12 ) ______________ 7.7 __ 80.0 _ Don ( 51 ) _________________ 

 8.7 __ 85.0 _ stargazer ( 22 ) _______________________

 8.7 __ ----- _ damianslaw ( 44 ) _____________________7.6 _102.0_ Godber1 ( 48 ) ______________

 8.7 __ ----- _ Duncan McAlister ( L1-1 ) _____________7.6 __ 80.0 _ daniel* (  L2-1 ) _____________

 8.6 __ ----- _ Mark Bayley ( 30 ) _____________________7.5 _ 130.0 _ summer8906 ( 16 ) _______

 8.6 __ 77.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 45 ) ________________

 8.5 __ 80.0 _ Freeze ( 26 ) __________________________7.5 __ 55.0 _ syed2878 ( 25 ) ____________

 8.5 __ 85.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 28 ) ________________________7.2 _ 113.0 _ LetItSnow! ( 19 ) __________

 8.5 __ 64.8 __ 1981-2010 average __________________ 6.9 __ 73.3 _ Roger J Smith ( 23 ) _______

 8.4 __ 55.0 _ Frigid ( 01 ) ___________________________6.7 __ ----- _ Kentish Man ( 55 ) ________

 8.4 __ 78.0 _ davehsug ( 46 ) ______________________ 5.4 __ 55.0 _ SLEETY ( 07 ) _____________

 8.4 __ 75.0 _ consensus ___________________________4.4 _800.0 _ Thundershine ( 38 ) ______

 

__ 56 on time entries so far, plus one shown as one day late, and one two days late, 58 total

__ __ __ consensus (median) is 8.4. 

======================================================

EWP Forecasts (in order)

800_Thundershine ... 130_summer8906 ... 114_noname_weather ... 113_LetItSnow! ...

110_summer blizzard ... 102_Godber1 ... 91_Wold Topper ...  90_summer18 ... 85_(stargazer, DR(S)NO) ...

 83_February1978 ... 82_(coldest winter, Stationary Front) ... 81_(Midlands Ice Age, Mr Maunder) ...  

 80_(Freeze, Don, daniel*) ...  79_(seaside60, Mulzy, rwtwm) ... 78_davehsug ...

 77_(jonboy, Emmett Garland, Jeff C) ... 75_con  75_EdStone ... 73.3_Roger J Smith ... 72_Weather26 ...

 71_snowray ... 70_Earthshine ... 69_Reef ... 67_(SteveB, Feb1991Blizzard) ...

 65_(virtualsphere, stewfox, J10) ... 64.8_81-10 ... 64_dancerwithwings ... 63.2_91-20 ... 61.2_PolarGael

 60.1_prolongedSnowLover ... 60_(IRemAtl252, DiagonalRedLine, weather-history) ... 59.4_bobd29 ...

 55_(Frigid, SLEETY, The PIT, syed2878, NeilN, Norrance) ... 54_Pegg24 ... 22_shillitocettwo

__________________

51 entries, consensus 75.0 mm

(daniel* two days late)

____________________________________________________

updated at 12:05 a.m. Friday 1st April _ late entries will be added to table (absolute deadline is end of Sunday 3rd April).

note to J 10 -- don't think the first post after this is late enough to place in L1, probably came in moments after I posted this. 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
added consensus to EWP table
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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

Consensus being a tad cooler and wetter than normal is interesting.

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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Author
Posted (edited)

 

April CET extremes and 1981-2010 averages, extreme values of running CET

 

DATE ___ MAX yr _________ MIN yr ____________ CET __cum CET ____ Max CET __ Min CET

01 Apr ... 13.4 (1995) ........--0.0 (1799&1917) __8.3 _____ 8.3 ____ 13.4 (1995) __--0.0 (1799&1917)
02 Apr ... 13.9 (1835) ........--0.4 (1917) _________8.1 _____ 8.2 ____ 13.2 (2011) __--0.2 (1917)

03 Apr ... 15.0 (1946) ........ --0.5 (1799) _______7.4 _____ 7.9 ____ 12.9 (1946) __  0.0 (1917)
04 Apr ... 15.6 (1946)......... 1.0 (1809&1830) ___ 7.1 _____ 7.7 ____ 13.6 (1946) __ 0.5 (1799)
05 Apr ... 13.2 (1857) ......... 0.5 (1911) _________ 7.1 _____ 7.6 ____ 12.8 (1926,46)__1.2 (1917)

06 Apr ... 15.2 (2011) ......... 0.8 (1911) _________ 7.5 _____ 7.6 ____ 12.6 (1926) __ 1.4 (1917)
07 Apr ... 14.7 (1859) ......... 1.0 (1839) _________ 7.3 _____ 7.5 ____ 12.4 (1926) __ 1.7 (1917)
08 Apr ... 13.1 (2020) ......... 2.4 (1780) _________ 7.2 _____ 7.5 ____ 12.0 (1926) __ 2.1 (1917)
09 Apr ... 13.8 (2017) ......... 1.4 (1812) _________ 7.5 _____ 7.5 ____ 11.8 (2011) __ 2.2 (1917)
10 Apr ... 14.1 (2020) ......... 0.5 (1837) _________ 8.2 _____ 7.6 ____ 11.8 (2011) __ 2.1 (1917)

11 Apr ... 15.9 (1869) ......... 1.3 (1978) _________ 8.1 _____ 7.6 ____ 11.8 (2011) __ 2.2 (1917)

12 Apr ... 14.5 (1939) ......... 1.1 (1879) _________ 7.8 _____ 7.6 ____ 11.5 (2011) __ 2.3 (1917)
13 Apr ... 14.6 (1792) ......... 1.1 (1816) _________ 7.5 _____ 7.6 ____ 11.2 (1778,2011)__2.4 (1917)
14 Apr ... 15.9 (1869) ......... 0.5 (1966)*_________8.0 _____ 7.7 ____ 11.1 (2011) __ 2.5 (1917) _ *(also 0.6 1816)
15 Apr ... 16.3 (1945) ......... 1.5 (1966) _________ 8.3 _____ 7.7 ____ 11.1 (2011) __ 2.6 (1917)


16 Apr ... 17.1 (1945) ......... 2.2 (1837&1892) ___8.6 ____ 7.8 ____ 11.1 (2011) __ 2.8 (1917)
17 Apr ... 14.8 (1865&2003) .. 2.1 (1793&1812) _ 8.4 ___7.8 ____ 11.1 (2011) _ 2.8 (1917)
18 Apr ... 17.0 (2018) ......... 1.7 (1807) _________ 8.1 _____ 7.8 ____ 11.2 (1945) __ 3.0 (1837,1917)
19 Apr ... 17.7 (2018) .........--0.2 (1772) _________8.2 _____ 7.8 ____ 11.4 (1945) __ 3.2 (1837)
20 Apr ... 16.7 (1893) ......... 2.3 (1849) _________ 8.4 _____ 7.9 ____ 11.5 (1945) __ 3.3 (1837)

21 Apr ... 15.8 (1893) ......... 2.4 (1936) _________ 9.2 _____ 7.9 ____ 11.6 (2011) _ 3.3 (1837)
22 Apr ... 15.4 (2011) ......... 3.4 (1778) _________ 9.4 _____ 8.0 ____ 11.7 (2011) __ 3.5 (1837)
23 Apr ... 15.9 (2011) ......... 2.5 (1908) _________ 9.7 _____ 8.1 ____ 11.9 (2011) __ 3.6 (1837)
24 Apr ... 15.4 (2007) ......... 0.6 (1908) _________ 9.7 _____ 8.1 ____ 12.0 (2011) __ 3.7 (1837)
25 Apr ... 15.9 (1821) ......... 1.8 (1908) ________ 10.1 _____ 8.2 ____ 12.0 (2011) __ 3.9 (1837)

26 Apr ... 15.9 (1821) ......... 3.4 (1981) ________ 10.1 _____ 8.3 ____ 11.9 (2011) __ 4.1 (1837)
27 Apr ... 16.3 (1866) ......... 2.8 (1919) ________ 10.1 _____ 8.4 ____ 11.9 (2011) __ 4.2 (1837)
28 Apr ... 16.9 (1775) ......... 3.0 (1826) _________ 9.9 _____ 8.4 ____ 11.8 (2011) __ 4.4 (1837)
29 Apr ... 19.7 (1775) ......... 0.7 (1856) _________ 9.9 _____ 8.5 ____ 11.8 (2011) __ 4.5 (1837)
30 Apr ... 17.4 (1775) ......... 2.7 (1945) ________ 10.5 _____ 8.5 ____ 11.9 (2011) __ 4.7 (1701&1837)*

* Min CET on 30th from monthly averages, no daily data for 1701 otherwise. 

===========================================================================

1991-2020 CET daily averages and running means

1 __ 8.3 _ 8.3 ___ _ 6 __ 8.4 _ 8.2 ___ _ 11 __ 8.4 _ 8.2 ______ 16 __ 8.6 _ 8.3 ___ _ 21 __10.0 _ 8.5 ___ _ 26 __10.0 _ 8.8

2 __ 8.6 _ 8.5 ___ _ 7 __ 8.0 _ 8.1 ___ _ 12 __ 8.3 _ 8.3 ______ 17 __ 8.8 _ 8.3 ___ _ 22 __10.2 _ 8.5 ___ _ 27 __ 9.8 _ 8.9

3 __ 8.0 _ 8.3 ___ _ 8 __ 8.1 _ 8.1 ___ _ 13 __ 7.8 _ 8.2 ______ 18 __ 8.6 _ 8.3 ___ _ 23 __10.5 _ 8.6 ___ _ 28 __ 9.7 _ 8.9

4 __ 7.7 _ 8.2 ___ _ 9 __ 8.5 _ 8.2 ___ _ 14 __ 8.4 _ 8.2 ______ 19 __ 8.8 _ 8.3 ___ _ 24 __10.6 _ 8.7 ___ _ 29 __ 9.8 _ 8.9

5 __ 8.0 _ 8.1 ___ _10__ 8.7 _ 8.2 ___ _ 15 __ 8.6 _ 8.3 ______ 20 __ 9.2 _ 8.4 ___ _ 25 __10.6 _ 8.8 ___ _ 30 __10.3 _ 9.0 (8.97)

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

4.1c to the 1st

2.8c below the 61 to 90 average
4.2c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 4.1c on the 1st
Current low this month 4.1c on the 1st

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ItNeverSnowsInWindsor Experienced

ItNeverSnowsInWindsor

Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted
8 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

4.1c to the 1st

2.8c below the 61 to 90 average
4.2c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 4.1c on the 1st
Current low this month 4.1c on the 1st

Would’ve been even lower than the 1991-2020 average!

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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Author
Posted

Actually the same, see the data above (1991-2020 daily normals, 1st of April is same as 1981-2010 8.3C). The normals start to get warmer later in the month. If we stay around 5 C to end of Sunday 3rd, then the 9.0 forecasts need an average of 9.8 to reach their target. 

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

4.3c to the 2nd

2.5c below the 61 to 90 average
3.9c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 4.3c on the 2nd
Current low this month 4.1c on the 1st

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

Bit of a warm up tomorrow and Tuesday, colder remainder of the week, not as cold a start to April as last year but coldest first 10 days to a month for quite a number of months..  possibly since last May.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

4.3c to the 3rd

2.1c below the 61 to 90 average
3.6c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 4.3c on the 2nd & 3rd
Current low this month 4.1c on the 1st

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

5.4c to the 4th

1.0c below the 61 to 90 average
2.3c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 5.4c on the 4th
Current low this month 4.1c on the 1st

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

6.5c to the 5th

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average
1.1c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 6.5c on the 5th
Current low this month 4.1c on the 1st

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Sunny Sheffield at 6.2C -0.7C below normal. Rainfall 2.9mm 5.2% of the monthly average.

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