Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[Dancerwithwings]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The cold marching westwards all be it a bit later than the 12z but the general theme is still the same,...IE-Scandi heights with stalling fronts out west disrupting south of the UK=easterly into the UK

Edit: erm,...that is quite capable of a snow machine from the east.

And why not !!! I’m with ya...let’s show the Snow potential as well all fun

I must admit, this Winter has been full of hopes...but with now’t...( the usual I suppose ) 

November was Winter for me... 

[minus10]

18 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The cold marching westwards all be it a bit later than the 12z but the general theme is still the same,...IE-Scandi heights with stalling fronts out west disrupting south of the UK=easterly into the UK

Edit: erm,...that is quite capable of a snow machine from the east.

Minus 12?...you cannot be serious  

Vortex looks pretty mangled..

Signal for this is gaining some traction however the garden path still comes to mind and not just because i have to go up one for work tomorrow. If only in January  ...perhaps the last chance saloon is up the garden path..

 

 

[winterof79]

Coincidence?

 

[Mark Smithy]

Another big stand-off between GFS (easterly at T120) and UKMO (nada) and ECM (a 24 hour whisper of an easterly and then not).

I don't really know what to make of this. The GFS has been trying to shoe-horn an easterly onto the UK for the past fortnight so I suppose like a stopped clock it will eventually tell the correct time.

But it has little support in its own ensembles so I'm not holding my breath on this one, especially given the lack of support from the European models.

Edited March 11, 2022 by Mark Smithy

[mushymanrob]

11 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Just a last quick one from me

the  NOAA 500mb height anomalies 6-10 and 8-14 days shows upper flow from the SW with +ve heights into Scandi as we know but is that surface winds coming from the SE then backing E in the ext'd?

the EPS and De-built are late this evening,...i might get the chance to post them later,...if not then i will tomorrow

the NAO/AO are starting to trend negative also,...let's see if we can get one last shot at cold this winter,...spring  sorry,then a warm up afterwards

laters all,...going to watch the new season of the Last Kingdom.

Yes, the extended does suggest a more Easterly component, so the cold plunge on the eastern flank of the high may find its way here around next weekend..

[Man With Beard]

Seeing the ECM this morning has flipped me into Spring chasing. 

Could be high teens for central areas midweek, I'll stick my neck out and suggest we may even see a 20C.

I feel the 2022 spring and summer chase are going to be a lot more productive than the 2022 winter chase, what a disaster that was!

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Seeing the ECM this morning has flipped me into Spring chasing. 

Could be high teens for central areas midweek, I'll stick my neck out and suggest we may even see a 20C.

I feel the 2022 spring and summer chase are going to be a lot more productive than the 2022 winter chase, what a disaster that was!

Hello Yellows and Oranges - where have you been? 

Ive not been overly positive going into the past couple of summers, this year it’s different though
 

Still a long way off but a chance towards the middle of next week that we may see the briefest glimpses of spring. 15-19C would feel pretty pleasant after months of wind and single digit temps. Still the potential for a rapid cool down the following weekend though which will also need keeping an eye on. 

[DR(S)NO]

31 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Hello Yellows and Oranges - where have you been? 

Ive not been overly positive going into the past couple of summers, this year it’s different though
 

Still a long way off but a chance towards the middle of next week that we may see the briefest glimpses of spring. 15-19C would feel pretty pleasant after months of wind and single digit temps. Still the potential for a rapid cool down the following weekend though which will also need keeping an eye on. 

Hi Alderc

If you don’t mind me asking, what makes you more positive for this Summers prospects?

[*Stormforce~beka*]

59 minutes ago, DR(S)NO said:

Hi Alderc

If you don’t mind me asking, what makes you more positive for this Summers prospects?

Lack of the Rona lockdowns!

[Cambrian]

Day 8 on the 12z GFS operational run - just as the cold air reaches us from the east, a low forms on the western flank of the high and there’s a notable northerly plunge down the mid-Atlantic. Some patchy snow possible for northern parts but look at how far south the -8 degrees T850 and the snow gets over the Atlantic. Arctic vs. continental in a race to our shores to round off the season, how can we lose?!

  

The GFS shows us how! The low feeds us back into a southerly and brings some rain around day 9, before wandering north towards Iceland by day 10, the Azores high slips back into place at its home, with all the cold air from the east and north missing us again. 

 

It’s a strikingly slow-moving run that then goes on to treat us to a handsome looking PV split in la-la around day 14, with mid-Atlantic ridging beginning to feel out the scope for a late March northerly. 
 
Not going to happen like this of course, but the lack of mobility and clear tendency towards more and more blocking as the month progresses is telling in itself.

[Earthshine]

Oh that first calm, warm spring day is going to feel utterly divine.  Wouldn't rule out a local 19 or 20°C next week

[Uncertainty]

Some fascinating atmospheric goings on over the coming weeks, a dynamic final warming looks increasingly likely…

The GFS op has done extremely well predicting last weeks shard shear event and it has also consistently forecast a much stronger warming and subsequent split this time round.

 

Well supported now by its ensemble, the cfs, the GEPS and the ecm.

The driver for this could well be the strong scandi / greenland dipole we currently have in the trop. 
 

 

This pattern, so notable by its absence in winter ( and most crucially, November) is optimal for disrupting the SPV and you would imagine there will be significant and long lasting tropospheric effects should we get a major split type final warming.

In the medium term, the EPS is suggesting an easterly wind is possible around day 9 - 11. Garden path perhaps, but this is a really significant signal, not just an anomaly but a mean easterly.  It should however be noted that there are very few very cold members, and the pattern required to achieve a true cold or even snowy easterly in mid / late March is not favoured on this or any other ens set at present. The alignment required for a NS snow machine event is highly improbable. What is clear is that blocking is forecast to become increasingly prevalent and that a cool/cold outcome can’t be discounted. 

The GEFS and GEPS are more conservative and opt for a warmer south easterly.

NOAA perhaps closer to the more easterly eps prediction

Beyond this, and into the back end of week 2, retrogression of the high and / or a merger with a new lobe of heights from the west looks possible and the strat split might allow this outcome quite easily.

In short it looks like a ‘blocking - but where’ scenario is ahead. How much the events in the strat alter the course of the spring season as a whole  remains to be seen but the odds of a cooler or even colder early part of spring have increased significantly over the last few days.

[ANYWEATHER]

14 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Oh that first calm, warm spring day is going to feel utterly divine.  Wouldn't rule out a local 19 or 20°C next week

Yes Perhaps a Very brief spell of Spring, but blink and you will miss it!!! Noticeable is the Easterly winds ushering later next week? From both models 

[Allseasons-Si]

Thanks for that @Uncertainy,...you pipped me at the post with some of your charts

i will add a few as there seems to be gaining momentum for an easterly of sorts,...how cold into the UK is yet to be determined 

EPS at day ten 500's/mslp and 850's NH and European view with +ve anomaly still showing over Scandy and -ve anomaly through southern central Europe and main parent tpv over Siberia/Asia

the De-built ens show a drop off in dew points around the 18th onwards coinciding with an easterly.

 

[damianslaw]

Stirrings in the strat thread may be about to see a sudden final warming with swift impacts. Models latching on to a blocked outlook as we move further through latter part of March. Northern blocking at last? Very typical for the time of year, northerlies and easterlies most likely mid March to mid June. 

Edited March 11, 2022 by damianslaw

[Dancerwithwings]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Stirrings in the strat thread may be about to see a sudden final warming with swift impacts. Models latching on to a blocked outlook as we move further through latter part of March. Northern blocking at last? Very typical for the time of year, northerlies and easterlies most likely mid March to mid June. 

How the reminder, in which I don’t need to state to us coldies that this should of happened, If it does ....January or early February would of just been fine....but that’s life

Edited March 11, 2022 by Dancerwithwings

[Tim Bland]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Stirrings in the strat thread may be about to see a sudden final warming with swift impacts. Models latching on to a blocked outlook as we move further through latter part of March. Northern blocking at last? Very typical for the time of year, northerlies and easterlies most likely mid March to mid June. 

Something like this perhaps.. 

[Don]

11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Something like this perhaps.. 

Yes, although I appreciate many want spring now, I would take snow anytime, especially after a snowless winter!  Trouble is, it's in la la land as per usual!

[SLEETY]

Here come the perfect winter charts in spring AGAIN awesome looking gfs, better late than never I suppose!! 

[Ali1977]

Best chance of U.K. wide snow this winter - probably last week of March
Overnight GFS looking cold day 10, ECM following - if not colder 

Day 10, -10c uppers

Edited March 12, 2022 by Ali1977

[SLEETY]

Wintry start to spring if  you go with 21st March as start of spring, of course if this was Winter you would expect none of these charts to verify, but different story in spring time, how predictable is this getting now , remember last spring and all the blocking over Greenland, here we go again. 

[Bradowl]

13 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Wintry start to spring if  you go with 21st March as start of spring, of course if this was Winter you would expect none of these charts to verify, but different story in spring time, how predictable is this getting now , remember last spring and all the blocking over Greenland, here we go again. 

Still over a week away them charts so might be completely different come then. I'm still putting my sun cream on standby. 

[Uncertainty]

2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Here come the perfect winter charts in spring AGAIN awesome looking gfs, better late than never I suppose!! 

Indeed Sleety, but this run shows how many pieces need to fall in place. We eventually get a cold pool transported around the high and then fired in on a developing trough as the high reorientates 

 

ECM is simpler and pretty cold but not particularly snowy at this stage.

On both models the scandi high is 1050mb not often you see that, at any time of year. It does all feel a bit ‘what you could have won’ if the strat vortex had been taken out in mid December.

There’s also a long way to go and these charts are day 10+ though you do feel quite that with the split and a more active mjo that a big block is plausible. 

[jamesthemonkeh]

Usual caveats apply - only the CFSv2, monthly anomalies, could easily be wrong, yadda yadda.  I like to look at them anyway.

March's strong high pressure anomoly creeps ever so slightly further east and north, compared to what it was showing.  Southerly or south-easterly flows continue to look more likely so often mild, occasionally quite warm, though with this being a month-long anomoly, I wouldn't be surprised to see an easterly at some point either - especially given the anomoly seems to have shifted north a tad.  Drier and sunnier than normal seem more likely.

April continues to show a strong high pressure anomoly over the UK, though centred to our west - and with a weak low pressure anomoly starting to show over north Scandinavia, then I'd suggest there will be a northerly/north-westerly component for a chunk of April.  Which could tie in nicely with developments in the strat?

May still shows a fairly strong high pressure anomoly to our west.  So arguably further cooler weather than normal would be in the mix, though hopefully also drier than normal.  Maybe you could extrapolate to high pressure being to our west early in the month - to match April, with high pressure over the UK later in the month, but that feels a bit guessworky.

[Empire Of Snow]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Wintry start to spring if  you go with 21st March as start of spring, of course if this was Winter you would expect none of these charts to verify, but different story in spring time, how predictable is this getting now , remember last spring and all the blocking over Greenland, here we go again. 

Even in countries like Greece March is considered as a pure winter month. If we can't have a long period of dry 18c weather in March/April, I prefer cold and snow to this rainy, windy with gales weather. 

Talking about Greece, it's snowing almost everywhere there again. This is from yesterday and they expect more snow this weekend: