Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[Scorcher]

9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Slippery downward slope on the ECM ensembles, majority of members support the northwesterly regression of high pressure and the mean is propped up just a handful of much warmer ensembles.

Start of June could end up being a car crash…

The mean hardly dips below average. Are you the most negative man on the planet?

[Guest]

21 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

The mean hardly dips below average. Are you the most negative man on the planet?

Nope, just saying what I see which a slippery slope and a mean proper up by a handful of hot outliers that goes against the majority of other output.

After all it’s the UK, the whether is awful 9-11months per year. Would rather be surprised if it turns out better than expected than the other way around.

Edited May 22, 2022 by Alderc

[sheikhy]

Northern blocking galore on the charts this morning!!had it been winter this place would be running riot!!

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Northern blocking galore on the charts this morning!!had it been winter this place would be running riot!!

Think we all knew once these charts started appearing a few days ago they’d end up being true. Same as always. I just can’t wait for these absolute belters in a weeks time.

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Think we all knew once these charts started appearing a few days ago they’d end up being true. Same as always. I just can’t wait for these absolute belters in a weeks time.

Such frustration cos if the same thing happened in winter it just wouldnt happen and everything end up flat as a pancake!!

[ChannelThunder]

10 hours ago, Alderc said:

Slippery downward slope on the ECM ensembles, majority of members support the northwesterly regression of high pressure and the mean is propped up just a handful of much warmer ensembles.

Start of June could end up being a car crash…

I booked the first two weeks of June as leave, so that figures...

[mb018538]

Remember all those hot charts appearing for the jubilee last week?

Nah, me either.

[Earthshine]

For those of you losing your minds over a brief cooler spell... 

 

Edited May 23, 2022 by Earthshine

[summer blizzard]

GFS0z goes full summer 07 for days 10-16, surface troughs and southerly tracking.

Out to 10 days though and no major change from recent days. Becoming somewhat cool and showery but not especially cyclonic.

[Methuselah]

14 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

For those of you losing your minds over a brief cooler spell... 

 

And what with it following so soon after the 'coldest April for many a year', the usual few kilo tonnes of salt might come in useful?

[Roadrunner]

As long as this Jubilee isn't akin to the horror show that was the one in 2012 I'm ok with it. We're going camping that weekend near Winchester so fingers crossed! 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, sheikhy said:

Northern blocking galore on the charts this morning!!had it been winter this place would be running riot!!

Yup, looking more and more certain like the jubilee curse will strike yet again. Surely it can’t rival 2012, was stood on the Thames, 12c with a howling wind up the rive 
 

As usual we’ll be doing well to get away 10-14days of this tosh, once the patterns in it’s usually tough to budge, yes that sounds negative but it’s pretty accurate I reckon. 

[Earthshine]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

And what with it following so soon after the 'coldest April for many a year', the usual few kilo tonnes of salt might come in useful?

Well after that "notably cold start to May" I've got a monthly subscription!

Edited May 23, 2022 by Earthshine

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, Earthshine said:

For those of you losing your minds over a brief cooler spell... 

 

"brief"?..... and the MJO is orbiting rapidly through several phases so im not sure how effective that signal will be for us.

But theres nothing "brief" about the cooling down ... it arrives on Sunday and lasts for at least a week
 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

16 hours ago, Scorcher said:

An excellent UKMO for the weekend. GFS seems to be trending the right way as well, although we certainly need that high pressure further east.

There was a lot of pessimism earlier in here but I think there's a good chance of eastward corrections over the next few days.

It wouldn't take much of a shift to give most of the country a warm, sunny weekend.

I've been out of the weather game for a few months now so excuse a little rustiness..but I'm not really suprised by some of the downbeat comments on here...Every summer and every Winter we get the towels being thrown in before the season starts. Northerly blocking always appears just in time for Summer and ruins things,before declining just in time for Winter!

As far as I can see the upcoming week looks unsettled,especially the next couple of days but it looks to improve come the end of the week, and for the weekend...potentially we could be starting June on a more settled note! Exeter seem confident on this outcome currently. 

We have a whole season of Summer to get through just yet,and some current signals of Northern Blocking will not shape the rest of the season in any shape or form!

Keep your heads while all those around you lose there's! 

Have a sterling week folks.

[StormChaseUK]

Hmm I dunno, I'm still not convinced at this stage yet - I still think pressure will build in from SW.

[Tamara]

Olá a todos

A lot of momentum transfers in progress across the global atmospheric circulation at present - with a reversal in process of some strong momentum transport which had built strong downstream sub tropical ridging across large parts of Europe and also some very significant early heat at the end of last week and into the weekend to parts of Iberia extending into France and central parts of Europe.

Reversal of frictional and then extra tropical torques ls set to lead to a retrogressive pull from upstream and hence the advertised NE Atlantic blocking c/o deceleration of zonal winds around 55 to 60N.  This retrogression is then set to further adjust the pattern westwards as a precursor to yet another lunge upwards of momentum as significant tropical convection traverses the Pacific heading into June. The result being to presage the return of a European downstream ridge in the extended period. This, in tandem with seasonal wavelength changes heading into June, bodes a good chance that heat advection may cover larger parts of NW Europe, including the UK.

This type of pattern potentially could lead to a rinse and repeating of thundery lows breaking off a main trough in the Atlantic down to the Azores region which move northwards, followed by re-set of hot sunshine.

The inference of all this is for those in the UK and more NW parts of Europe not to read too much into programmed blocking south of Greenland as there is a reasoned chance that this is one of those times when it is in itself just part of a stepping stone process towards something much more summery. Should that happen, how long that in turn holds is clearly subject to time and further analysis, especially set against a stubbornly Nina background. But it is still well in keeping with many La Nina June/early summer patterns, particularly those with an active & unstable Maritime/ Western Pacific  tropical convection convergence pattern with westerly wind bursts challenging the date line, booting angular momentum tendency and creating downstream eddies and amplification

Edited May 23, 2022 by Tamara

[Cambrian]

The models are clearly a long way from settling on a reliable setup for early June - cool and changeable from the 0z ops, or maybe something a good deal better could be on…
 

6z GFS operational run stalls the low in the western Atlantic and pumps up the heights over the UK and Ireland for day 10.

1030mb high and set fair just in time for the long bank holiday. All very marginal and clearly still a great deal to play for going into the first weekend of June.

Edited May 23, 2022 by Cambrian

[kold weather]

Not too concerned yet by some of the less impressive models. The key is we still have High pressure upper cores not too far away and nothing to stop that from sinking back southwards as time goes along, as we so often see anyways.

If we do get some northern blocking I'd rather it from the N/NW than what the GFS is trying to do, as at least we'd be reasonably sunny if just on the cool side (plus showers always possible) whilst that GFS 06z extended FI screams cloudy and dull, at least for the SE half of the UK, maybe better further NW/W.

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

We have a whole season of Summer to get through just yet,and some current signals of Northern Blocking will not shape the rest of the season in any shape or form!

 

Thats not strictly true though is it.... hi Matt...
June 2012 and 2007 were very cool and wet, they started "summer" with northern blocking, and that early block prevailed on and off throughout most of the Summer. In fact, a cursory view through the historic charts of the bottom 13 Summers (using Weather Historys "Manchester Summer Index) nearly all started June with northern blocking or as in a couple of cases, blocking to our near West.
We get "good" and "bad" summers because of repeating patterns, and northern blocking establishing in early June DOES or CAN shape the rest of the season as our poorest summers can testify.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

5 hours ago, Roadrunner said:

As long as this Jubilee isn't akin to the horror show that was the one in 2012 I'm ok with it. We're going camping that weekend near Winchester so fingers crossed! 

If your coming here your doomed LOL!!

[Guest]

59 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Thats not strictly true though is it.... hi Matt...
June 2012 and 2007 were very cool and wet, they started "summer" with northern blocking, and that early block prevailed on and off throughout most of the Summer. In fact, a cursory view through the historic charts of the bottom 13 Summers (using Weather Historys "Manchester Summer Index) nearly all started June with northern blocking or as in a couple of cases, blocking to our near West.
We get "good" and "bad" summers because of repeating patterns, and northern blocking establishing in early June DOES or CAN shape the rest of the season as our poorest summers can testify.

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Thats not strictly true though is it.... hi Matt...
June 2012 and 2007 were very cool and wet, they started "summer" with northern blocking, and that early block prevailed on and off throughout most of the Summer. In fact, a cursory view through the historic charts of the bottom 13 Summers (using Weather Historys "Manchester Summer Index) nearly all started June with northern blocking or as in a couple of cases, blocking to our near West.
We get "good" and "bad" summers because of repeating patterns, and northern blocking establishing in early June DOES or CAN shape the rest of the season as our poorest summers can testify.

Well pointed out. Patterns can set up early in June and get stuck for weeks or months.
I’m not expecting this summer to be anything like as bad as those though. I think average to better than average. As ever - nobody actually knows. You just have to break it down into chunks, and for the next 10-14 days it looks like northern blocking. After that, we will see where the land lies. As I always say, much easier to get some warmth in summer than cold in winter.

[Row w]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Thats not strictly true though is it.... hi Matt...
June 2012 and 2007 were very cool and wet, they started "summer" with northern blocking, and that early block prevailed on and off throughout most of the Summer. In fact, a cursory view through the historic charts of the bottom 13 Summers (using Weather Historys "Manchester Summer Index) nearly all started June with northern blocking or as in a couple of cases, blocking to our near West.
We get "good" and "bad" summers because of repeating patterns, and northern blocking establishing in early June DOES or CAN shape the rest of the season as our poorest summers can testify.

 Please don't say that and jinx it 

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Well pointed out. Patterns can set up early in June and get stuck for weeks or months.
I’m not expecting this summer to be anything like as bad as those though. I think average to better than average. As ever - nobody actually knows. You just have to break it down into chunks, and for the next 10-14 days it looks like northern blocking. After that, we will see where the land lies. As I always say, much easier to get some warmth in summer than cold in winter.

agreed.... im sure there were summers with early NB that changed, off the top of my head ...83? ... so im not suggesting that a NB themed start to summer automatically writes off the whole summer... but it has done.