Spring 2022 Chat

[damianslaw]

First day I've sat outside for notable length of time and not felt cold. Whilst we only hit 7.5 degrees, thanks to light wind some shelter and plenty of sun it felt very pleasant this afternoon. By now unless very cold uppers overhead.. under light or no wind and clear blue skies the sunshine can make it feel alot warmer than it actually is. It's been a super early spring day and a sharp frost is on it's way.

[Don]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

Hmm, not where i was. London was overcast and rainy during the afternoon. That being said, we had it good last Saturday and Sunday.

Well, I can only speak for where I was and it was dry and fairly bright during the afternoon and early evening.  However, it did turn a bit rainy later on.

[Frost HoIIow]

A great day here - mostly sunny and pleasant enough out of the chilly breeze. A cold night in prospect and already down to 2.6C here after a high of 8.1C. But won't be long now until the days become longer than the nights and hopefully we'll start to get the first warm days not long after that and can forget about how dire this "winter" was with it's a couple of pathetic dustings. Just happy I had 4 inches of snow at the back end of November even though technically it wasn't winter. But it certainly looked and felt like it!

[Freeze]

Felt like mid January here today high of 7.5c and a brisk north easterly wind under thick cloud. Saw brief glimpses of the sun today for the first time this march which is awful. Felt colder than most of January and February here today. Cannot wait for a warm up.

[LetItSnow!]

I know it’s the spring thread but wasn’t sure where to put this. With one forum I read talking about colder than average conditions heading into Greece & Turkey yet again (their words), it makes me wonder if there’s a graph to show winter average temperatures, let’s say in Greece, over the past fifty years to see the trends there. In recent decades we’ve seen quite a lot of cold weather be shunted there and missing us, so do the stats show a steady, if not downward trend there? I suppose annually would that be offset by hotter summers? It’s something interesting that I’m going to look into because it’ll actually show whether these claims are true or not, whether they’re just a few extreme events skewing our memory. Moderates can put this wherever they see fit. 

[Guest]

Not sure what to make of the model output currently. On one hand I’m glad any late winter silliness seems to be off the cards but on the other a little disappointed those first really pleasant spring days still appear to be pretty elusive. Just a continuation of 9-12C and chilly nights. 

[Earthshine]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Not sure what to make of the model output currently. On one hand I’m glad any late winter silliness seems to be off the cards but on the other a little disappointed those first really pleasant spring days still appear to be pretty elusive. Just a continuation of 9-12C and chilly nights. 

Still signs there could be a bit more of a warm up next week.  I wouldn't put too much faith in weather apps, they are often adjusted closer to the time.

[Dangerous55019]

Morning everyone 
Yes its time once again for me to emerge from my winter hibernation, and I have to say that although spring is now allegedly springing, its been a long time since I've felt cold like that out there!! 
What will the rest of spring hold? Well, only the gods know that! 

But IF this pattern persists, then it will get warmer as the season progresses.

If I get chance later I'll have a look at some of the long range models (Cansips, CFS etc) and see what's being forecast.

[reef]

3 hours ago, Alderc said:

Not sure what to make of the model output currently. On one hand I’m glad any late winter silliness seems to be off the cards but on the other a little disappointed those first really pleasant spring days still appear to be pretty elusive. Just a continuation of 9-12C and chilly nights. 

The March 1991-2020 averages are a mean max of 11.4C and mean min of 2.7C at Bournemouth Airport so it has been pretty average (or slightly above as its only early in the month).

People often seem to expect too much too soon in March and April. The increased frequency of early warmth in recent years seems to have given a false sense of things.

[Sunny76]

6 hours ago, Alderc said:

Not sure what to make of the model output currently. On one hand I’m glad any late winter silliness seems to be off the cards but on the other a little disappointed those first really pleasant spring days still appear to be pretty elusive. Just a continuation of 9-12C and chilly nights. 

I would rather 18-21c with sunny periods instead of any late artic blasts, now we are into the second week of March.

2 hours ago, reef said:

The March 1991-2020 averages are a mean max of 11.4C and mean min of 2.7C at Bournemouth Airport so it has been pretty average (or slightly above as its only early in the month).

People often seem to expect too much too soon in March and April. The increased frequency of early warmth in recent years seems to have given a false sense of things.

And can give way to poor summer conditions between June and August. 

 

[Met.]

March is (a bit like October/November) a "nothing month" to me. Still basically winter so I don't expect anything really spring like or warm feeling. Just another boring nothing month to get over with then I start looking to warmer/sunnier conditions in April onwards.

[TwisterGirl81]

I'm starting work on some new flower beds in the garden end of March and into April to get it all ready for planting in May so I am hoping for a dry warm one   Need it to my safe tranquil place to go from the madness of the last couple years and current next world issue 

 

But this is the downside of our climate in our part of the world, it is changeable and not guaranteed 

Edited March 8, 2022 by TwisterGirl81

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, Thundershine said:

March is (a bit like October/November) a "nothing month" to me. Still basically winter so I don't expect anything really spring like or warm feeling. Just another boring nothing month to get over with then I start looking to warmer/sunnier conditions in April onwards.

I say spring doesn't get going until the equinox, first three weeks of March very much a winter hangover period. Same with autumn wait until the equinox before gets going. Summer can quickly surface by mid May.. spring feel only lasts 2 months tops..

Spring feel - 21 March- 21 May

Summer feel 21 May- early Aug

Late summer feel - mid Aug to mid Sept

Autumn feel 21 Sept - early Nov

Early winter feel mid Nov - mid Dec

Winter feel late Dec - mid Feb

Late winter feel - late Feb - 21 March

Edited March 8, 2022 by damianslaw

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

I say spring doesn't get going until the equinox, first three weeks of March very much a winter hangover period. Same with autumn wait until the equinox before gets going. Summer can quickly surface by mid May.. spring feel only lasts 2 months tops..

Spring feel - 21 March- 21 May

Summer feel 21 May- early Aug

Late summer feel - mid Aug to mid Sept

Autumn feel 21 Sept - early Nov

Early winter feel mid Nov - mid Dec

Winter feel late Dec - mid Feb

Late winter feel - late Feb - 21 March

spring and autumn can literally be non existent here..2018 was classic example...April was very cold in the first three weeks with temps as low as -30c in the first week and was often sub zero day and night right out until 21/22nd then it suddenly flipped and turned very warm and the month finished with temps in to the low 20s May 2018 was a warm month with a few +30c days thrown in..conversely September 2018 was the coldest on record and we had various bouts of snow and frost from the 7th September on into October..so here the seasons looks something like this 

Spring 21 Apr - 31 May

Summer 1 Jun - 15 Aug

Autumn 16 Aug - 10  Oct

Winter 11 Oct - 20 Apr

[damianslaw]

26 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

spring and autumn can literally be non existent here..2018 was classic example...April was very cold in the first three weeks with temps as low as -30c in the first week and was often sub zero day and night right out until 21/22nd then it suddenly flipped and turned very warm and the month finished with temps in to the low 20s May 2018 was a warm month with a few +30c days thrown in..conversely September 2018 was the coldest on record and we had various bouts of snow and frost from the 7th September on into October..so here the seasons looks something like this 

Spring 21 Apr - 31 May

Summer 1 Jun - 15 Aug

Autumn 16 Aug - 10  Oct

Winter 11 Oct - 20 Apr

A 6 + month winter.. we barely see 2 months nowadays!

[Summer8906]

Autumn starts again tomorrow by the looks of things! About as un-spring-like as you can get for a few days: mild, dull, wet and humid. More like bad October weather, a real come down after the beautiful conditions we enjoyed on Sunday and Monday.

Having said that next week doesn't look quite as bad as the Atlantic seems to suddenly run out of steam on Monday. There's a low over France and high over Scandinavia: in May this would mean warm and thundery but not sure what sort of weather it would give now, it's a very unusual setup for March. Perhaps rather non-descript?

Even still I'd prefer a return to bright weather, cold nights and average, or slightly cooler than average, days. Of course asking for that in the winter half-year is asking too much these days, it seems...

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

23 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

spring and autumn can literally be non existent here..2018 was classic example...April was very cold in the first three weeks with temps as low as -30c in the first week and was often sub zero day and night right out until 21/22nd then it suddenly flipped and turned very warm and the month finished with temps in to the low 20s May 2018 was a warm month with a few +30c days thrown in..conversely September 2018 was the coldest on record and we had various bouts of snow and frost from the 7th September on into October..so here the seasons looks something like this 

Spring 21 Apr - 31 May

Summer 1 Jun - 15 Aug

Autumn 16 Aug - 10  Oct

Winter 11 Oct - 20 Apr

 

For me I would say

Spring 15 March - 21 May (though during 1990-2014, I'd have considered spring starting on 1 March, we seem to be going through a prolonged run of dull, damp Marches at the moment, delaying the onset of spring)

Spring-summer transition 21-31 May

Summer 1 June - 20 Aug

Summer-autumn transition 21 Aug - 21 Sep

Autumn 21 Sep - 30 Nov

Winter 1 Dec - 20 Feb

Winter-spring transition 21 Feb -15 March

[RabbitEars]

Is there any sign of a dry 7 day run soon? Please?  I've an outdoor painting project ongoing that needs dry weather (not murk and damp) for me to be able to progress and now the evenings are a bit lighter, I really want to get on with it! 

[mb018538]

10 hours ago, RabbitEars said:

Is there any sign of a dry 7 day run soon? Please?  I've an outdoor painting project ongoing that needs dry weather (not murk and damp) for me to be able to progress and now the evenings are a bit lighter, I really want to get on with it! 

Not really for the next 7-10 days. Not a complete torrential washout for the Isle of Man, but rain definitely a feature at times.

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Not really for the next 7-10 days. Not a complete torrential washout for the Isle of Man, but rain definitely a feature at times.

Typical that southern England looks decidedly damp compared to say East Anglia. The cliche that the south gets the best weather in the UK is, IMX, wrong. If you want good weather, move to Norwich, it seems.

What's also odd is how the mid-Channel is showing lower precipitation totals than southern England. This seems to happen quite frequently, which surprises me (at least in the winter half-year when most rainfall generation is over sea).

A really horrible synoptic situation this. In all honestly I'd prefer a zonal westerly-to-north-westerly for the next three weeks or so. At least we'd get some clean, low-DP polar air at regular intervals out of that.

This is the worst kind of block as it keeps claggy, high-DP air stuck over all but the far east of the UK.

Today is a case in point. Not horrendously dull, but the air feels very 'thick', humid and claggy. Extremely like early October, and the daylight is also exactly the same as early October. But it's not actual autumn, so the whole thing feels like an aesthetically-displeasing mess.

Edited March 10, 2022 by Summer8906

[mb018538]

31 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Typical that southern England looks decidedly damp compared to say East Anglia. The cliche that the south gets the best weather in the UK is, IMX, wrong. If you want good weather, move to Norwich, it seems.

What's also odd is how the mid-Channel is showing lower precipitation totals than southern England. This seems to happen quite frequently, which surprises me (at least in the winter half-year when most rainfall generation is over sea).

A really horrible synoptic situation this. In all honestly I'd prefer a zonal westerly-to-north-westerly for the next three weeks or so. At least we'd get some clean, low-DP polar air at regular intervals out of that.

This is the worst kind of block as it keeps claggy, high-DP air stuck over all but the far east of the UK.

Today is a case in point. Not horrendously dull, but the air feels very 'thick', humid and claggy. Extremely like early October, and the daylight is also exactly the same as early October. But it's not actual autumn, so the whole thing feels like an aesthetically-displeasing mess.

I wouldn't take these charts too literally though - good for a general guide, but they won't be millimetre accurate by any stretch.

Not too surprising that East Anglia is driest either....southern England is fairly dry, but EA is the driest part of the country anyway. Cambs and Essex especially so, with a bit of protection against the North Sea muck that can plague Norfolk at times in our patch. I live in Cambridge and would say it's better than Norwich for warmth just due to the inland location. In summer it's often noticeably warmer here. I think the driest place in the country is St Osyth near Clacton?

[Summer8906]

11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I wouldn't take these charts too literally though - good for a general guide, but they won't be millimetre accurate by any stretch.

Not too surprising that East Anglia is driest either....southern England is fairly dry, but EA is the driest part of the country anyway. Cambs and Essex especially so, with a bit of protection against the North Sea muck that can plague Norfolk at times in our patch. I live in Cambridge and would say it's better than Norwich for warmth just due to the inland location. In summer it's often noticeably warmer here. I think the driest place in the country is St Osyth near Clacton?

 

That rainfall map does show how central southern England is not actually as dry as you think: much of Yorkshire is a lot drier, and indeed much of northwest England and eastern Scotland is drier, despite being more likely to be in the path of active frontal systems. And much of southern England has comparable rainfall to the drier parts of Northern Ireland. It seems that rain-shadow effects really do make a big difference, more than latitude.

Incredibly, small parts of central southern England (the white bits) are wetter than the Carlisle area! That is rather harder to understand, as the Carlisle area is upwind (on a WSW) from the Irish Sea.

If the mean wind direction switched even a little from WSW to WNW, it would make the south very much drier, I suspect, as then your typical frontal rain from the Atlantic would come in on a course taking it over the Brecon Beacons.

Edited March 10, 2022 by Summer8906

[summer blizzard]

Teleconnective roundup as we head into Spring proper. 

1) ONI for Feb came in around -0.7.

2) AO for Feb came in at +1.5

3) QBO for Feb came in at -1.97 (most negative Feb since 2015 and makes this -QBO event stronger than the 2018 one). 

4) PDO for Feb came in at -1.63 (most negative Feb since 1956)

 

[PiscesStar]

Winter was utter crap.. Course its gonna be mild ... Big surprise. Not. 

[reef]

Today is certainly a very nice day, up to 15.6C so far and it has been clear all morning. A bit breezy but still very pleasant for early March.