Spring 2022 Chat

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Hard to believe that it will be summer in just over a week. This year is whizzing by and people will be moaning about the lack of proper cold and snow again before we know it.

I have quite enjoyed spring 2022. Perhaps from a meterological point of view it hasn't been the most interesting but from a personal point of view it has been great. The growing conditions have been adequate as it hasn't been too dry in my neck of the woods and we have had a great number of sunny days, particularly during March. And unlike last year, it didn't take an age for daytime temps to progressively warm up. I love experiencing the progression in temps during spring and autumn.

[weatherguru14]

This is yesterdays Met office for Friday 27th- Sunday 5th of June

Dry conditions with sunny spells are expected for most on Friday, although some cloud and light rain or showers are likely to be seen in the northern regions. Over the weekend, fine and dry weather will persist, however some light showers remain possible, especially in the north and east. Near normal temperatures can be expected for most, perhaps feeling warmer in the south and southwest. Into the following week, the weather is likely to become more settled, with any few showers most likely to be seen in the north and east. This means drier conditions and above average temperatures for most, particularly in the south and southeast, and fewer showers all round. As we move into the beginning of June, drier than average conditions are expected to persist overall.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC+1) on Sun 22 May 2022

 

"Above average temperatures for most".. Yet the BBC have my Location 14/15c for the most part..

The Metoffice are suppose to be the go to guys. with all their massive technology and they are constantly wrong 

[al78]

3 hours ago, weatherguru14 said:

"Above average temperatures for most".. Yet the BBC have my Location 14/15c for the most part..

The Metoffice are suppose to be the go to guys. with all their massive technology and they are constantly wrong 

The BBC does not use forecasts from the Met Office, so inconsistencies in the forecasts are not unsurprising. This sounds like another anti-Met Office rant.

Edited May 23, 2022 by al78

[richie3846]

3 hours ago, weatherguru14 said:

This is yesterdays Met office for Friday 27th- Sunday 5th of June

Dry conditions with sunny spells are expected for most on Friday, although some cloud and light rain or showers are likely to be seen in the northern regions. Over the weekend, fine and dry weather will persist, however some light showers remain possible, especially in the north and east. Near normal temperatures can be expected for most, perhaps feeling warmer in the south and southwest. Into the following week, the weather is likely to become more settled, with any few showers most likely to be seen in the north and east. This means drier conditions and above average temperatures for most, particularly in the south and southeast, and fewer showers all round. As we move into the beginning of June, drier than average conditions are expected to persist overall.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC+1) on Sun 22 May 2022

 

"Above average temperatures for most".. Yet the BBC have my Location 14/15c for the most part..

The Metoffice are suppose to be the go to guys. with all their massive technology and they are constantly wrong 

I'm not sure you can say they are wrong when the event is in the future, and quite far into the future in this case, not just the next couple of days. Specific location forecasts are unlikely to be accurate for more than 2 or 3 days ahead.

[weatherguru14]

Now Susan Powell is at it "no sign of an heatwave on the way" the only people who have been flaunting this have been the weather forecasters not the general public.  If she had finished with. We may not see an heatwave for a long long  time while because northern blocking is taking place. Then i would have more respect. But NOPE. what''ll happen now is for the rest of June 

The weather forecasters will focus of a possibility of a nice  3/4 days happening and make it seem like its something amazing is taking place. when we get closer to the time  frame it won't happen.  

Just be honest with the public and don't exaggerate. If your not 100% sure of something don't make it appear more than it is.; 

Thanks! 

[Guest]

20 hours ago, weatherguru14 said:

watching the last 2 bbc weekly outlooks. Helen Willets mentioned  last night how temperatures were going to be in the early to mid twenties in a few days time for some locations. Now no mention of it this evening..

That kinda forecast gives people watching it, the wrong impression like last week with the metoffice  when warm to hot spells was used.. Its like this every year.. I don't wish to hear what might happen with a super duper amazing heat and outlook. when it doesn't occur just sounds stupid. 

Personally I think the metoffice & tv outlets such as the bbc should stop issuing forecasts, or even trends for more than 5days out. Opens them up for too much criticism and ridicule. 

[Methuselah]

15 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Personally I think the metoffice & tv outlets such as the bbc should stop issuing forecasts, or even trends for more than 5days out. Opens them up for too much criticism and ridicule. 

That would certainly open the door to NW's fabled Science Team?

[mountain shadow]

Another cold morning with condensation still appearing on windows. 

No sign of anything proper warm on the horizon either.

[StretfordEnd1996]

16 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Another cold morning with condensation still appearing on windows. 

No sign of anything proper warm on the horizon either.

I would say, in the last few days, away from the sunshine (which naturally at this time of year just feels warm no matter the temperature) it has felt relatively cool at times - cooler than it often can be at this time of year..

 

But one thing I've seen so often in recent years is just how easy it is to tap in to much warmer air from the South. Used to be the case where it'd require a good few days of model chasing and patience, but so often these days it just seems to 'happen' - where we draw up mild/hot air so easily from the South.

 

Mind, with HP appearing to be based to our NW/Nish perhaps for now temperatures will hold up mostly on the average or slightly cooler side for the next week or two. 

 

[Nick L]

32 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

I would say, in the last few days, away from the sunshine (which naturally at this time of year just feels warm no matter the temperature) it has felt relatively cool at times - cooler than it often can be at this time of year..

 

But one thing I've seen so often in recent years is just how easy it is to tap in to much warmer air from the South. Used to be the case where it'd require a good few days of model chasing and patience, but so often these days it just seems to 'happen' - where we draw up mild/hot air so easily from the South.

 

Mind, with HP appearing to be based to our NW/Nish perhaps for now temperatures will hold up mostly on the average or slightly cooler side for the next week or two. 

 

Similar to how easy it is to achieve mid-30s in summer now. In years gone by that would be a seriously noteworthy feat, but now it's just any decent plume will achieve that widely with ease.

[StretfordEnd1996]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

Similar to how easy it is to achieve mid-30s in summer now. In years gone by that would be a seriously noteworthy feat, but now it's just any decent plume will achieve that widely with ease.

Yep completely agree that was what my comment was based off too - get a whiff of the plume and the temperatures really ramp up these days across the country. Uppers always seem intense and high.

 

Away from that though - happily it's nice to see just a bit of normal typical weather for once that follows the law of averages - the average daily max for my area at this time of year is around 14/15'C and a quick peak at the next 5 days forecast temps I have 14, 15, 13, 15, 14, 13. 

It's nice sometimes to just have a nice average spell of weather that isn't milder than average..!

 

[LetItSnow!]

25 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Similar to how easy it is to achieve mid-30s in summer now. In years gone by that would be a seriously noteworthy feat, but now it's just any decent plume will achieve that widely with ease.

funny you should say that - earlier this morning I was looking at the charts for July 2020. it’s really bizarre how that hot spell panned out. on the 29th  we were in a very cool northwesterly wind, by the 31st we were seeing temperatures of 37C, yet the following day it was cool again. sometimes I do wonder about urbanisation and the effects on some of the high temperatures in recent years, but even if that were true and underreported on, it wouldn’t explain away how easy it is now to get the 20C isotherm as far north as it often does nowadays compared to pre-2010s. the only years I’ve come across it on our shores when looking through the archives were August 2003, August 1879 (ironically) and September 1988 (more irony). I would like to be able to go through all years eventually and pin point each date the 20C line has reached our shores/just off, to see the frequency and compare its rarity to now. I think we saw the 25C line in June 2019…

Edited May 24, 2022 by LetItSnow!

[BruenSryan]

2 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

funny you should say that - earlier this morning I was looking at the charts for July 2020. it’s really bizarre how that hot spell panned out. on the 29th  we were in a very cool northwesterly wind, by the 31st we were seeing temperatures of 37C, yet the following day it was cool again. sometimes I do wonder about urbanisation and the effects on some of the high temperatures in recent years, but even if that were true and underreported on, it wouldn’t explain away how easy it is now to get the 20C isotherm as far north as it often does nowadays compared to pre-2010s. the only years I’ve come across it on our shores when looking through the archives were August 1879 (ironically) and September 1988 (more irony). I would like to be able to go through all years eventually and pin point each date the 20C line has reached our shores/just off, to see the frequency and compare its rarity to now. I think we saw the 25C line in June 2019…

June 2000 is another, reached the tip of Cornwall. Also can't forget August 2003. 

Camborne saw 24.8C @ 850hPa in June 2019, over 3.4C above the previous record in Sep 1988, Jun 2000 and Aug 2003. The irony is, its actual surface max temperature was lower with 22.6C on the 27th and 19.0C on the 28th June whilst the peak of the upper level warmth occurred overnight.

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

I would say, in the last few days, away from the sunshine (which naturally at this time of year just feels warm no matter the temperature) it has felt relatively cool at times - cooler than it often can be at this time of year..

 

With the sun out now, it's absolutely perfect. No breeze and 17 degrees.

Problem is the cloud and showers building into the afternoon and the temperature drops like a stone as a result. A Southerly whaft would be great.

[LetItSnow!]

7 minutes ago, BruenSryan said:

June 2000 is another, reached the tip of Cornwall. Also can't forget August 2003. 

Camborne saw 24.8C @ 850hPa in June 2019, over 3.4C above the previous record in Sep 1988, Jun 2000 and Aug 2003. The irony is, its actual surface max temperature was lower with 22.6C on the 27th and 19.0C on the 28th June whilst the peak of the upper level warmth occurred overnight.

without meaning to derail the conversation, I do wonder then why the temperature didn’t get higher than it did in both June 2000 and September 1988. I think the June 2000 heatwave peaked at 32*C but nowhere exceeded 27*C on the day of the peak upper air temperature in September 1988. Im assuming it was due to layers of cooler air lower at the surface like in June 2019, more so for the case of 1988.

[BruenSryan]

48 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

without meaning to derail the conversation, I do wonder then why the temperature didn’t get higher than it did in both June 2000 and September 1988. I think the June 2000 heatwave peaked at 32*C but nowhere exceeded 27*C on the day of the peak upper air temperature in September 1988. Im assuming it was due to layers of cooler air lower at the surface like in June 2019, more so for the case of 1988.

1988 is a weird case that I've always wondered myself. Clearly it was quite hot well to our south but fairly standard mid 20s in England at best. Only thing I could think of is well below average sea surface temperatures surrounding the isles leading to heavy modification of the airmass. 

Anyway, to make this at least partially on topic to the thread, spring has been the third consecutive nice one in a row for me. March was the best March I have experienced, by far the sunniest on record in my locale. April was pleasant but nothing exceptional, prefer the past 2. May has been mediocre, pretty warm but no standout warm days and very cloudy. Though least it's not a May 2015 disaster. 

[al78]

1 hour ago, Nick L said:

Similar to how easy it is to achieve mid-30s in summer now. In years gone by that would be a seriously noteworthy feat, but now it's just any decent plume will achieve that widely with ease.

A warming climate means high temperatures are more likely now than in the past given suitable synoptics for advecting warm/hot air from S Europe/N Africa. It is not just warming of our shores that makes a difference, but the warming of the source regions for hot air masses as well.

UK and Global extreme events – Heatwaves

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Determining the likelihood and severity of extreme events for the past, present and future.

 

Edited May 24, 2022 by al78

[Sunny76]

7 hours ago, al78 said:

A warming climate means high temperatures are more likely now than in the past given suitable synoptics for advecting warm/hot air from S Europe/N Africa. It is not just warming of our shores that makes a difference, but the warming of the source regions for hot air masses as well.

UK and Global extreme events – Heatwaves

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Determining the likelihood and severity of extreme events for the past, present and future.

 

Yeah that’s right. North Africa has warmed quite a bit since 1987, which in turn has is part of the reason our winters are milder, whenever we get a southerly wind.

 

[Sunny76]

8 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

With the sun out now, it's absolutely perfect. No breeze and 17 degrees.

Problem is the cloud and showers building into the afternoon and the temperature drops like a stone as a result. A Southerly whaft would be great.

It’s nice when the sunshine is there, but whenever the storm clouds move in, the temp drops by at least 1-2c and makes it feel chilly.

Had to wear a jacket and take it off a few times today. 

[al78]

Met Office long range outlook Wed 8th June to Wed 22nd June:

"This period is likely to bring generally settled conditions, with most areas being drier than average overall. Winds will probably be generally light, although the odd spell of stronger winds will still be possible. Temperatures possibly warmer than average, although colder conditions could extend from the northeast at times."

Can I bank this please? I am in Braemar on a hiking/summit bagging holiday from the 10th to the 17th, and if that forecast came to pass I will have a superb time.

[damianslaw]

12 hours ago, Nick L said:

Similar to how easy it is to achieve mid-30s in summer now. In years gone by that would be a seriously noteworthy feat, but now it's just any decent plume will achieve that widely with ease.

Conversely increasingly difficult to achieve sudden cold from long drawn northerlies, seem to need the perfect synoptics.. 

[Howie]

This is so so depressing 

[Sunny76]

So glad I decided to fly off to the med for early June.

I can’t take another poor summer, especially after the rotten 2021 in the London region.

Glad I’ll be having 27c-30c and long dry sunny spells.

Its a real shame if we don’t get at a few weeks of sunny dry days between now and early July, as this is the period of optimal daylight hours. 
 

Late sunsets were in short supply last year, apart from that 2 and a half week period in late May to mid June. And the only other being the late July hot and sunny spell.

[kieranweatherfan]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

So glad I decided to fly off to the med for early June.

I can’t take another poor summer, especially after the rotten 2021 in the London region.

Glad I’ll be having 27c-30c and long dry sunny spells.

Its a real shame if we don’t get at a few weeks of sunny dry days between now and early July, as this is the period of optimal daylight hours. 
 

Late sunsets were in short supply last year, apart from that 2 and a half week period in late May to mid June. And the only other being the late July hot and sunny spell.

I’m also off to the med on June 3rd lol a week of temps high 20s perfect 

[SunSean]

Going to be interesting to see what this summer brings. Just for fun, i looked at past years (from Heathrow data) to see what had similar starts and ended up with the 3 most similar so far being 1994, 2012 and 2017. This year has been extremely similar to 1994 in terms of sunshine so if the similar pattern continues then we could have a glorious 94 summer! Although 94 started a fair bit wetter, so then 2017 and then also unfortunately 2012 (March very similar) come a bit closer and both aren't too far off current sunshine amounts. To get another 2012 summer would be horrifying. 2017 style would be middle of the road because at least June was decent. Of course, this is just for interests sake and the weather will do what it wants haha.