February 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

CET averages and extremes for February

The following data include all CET values 1981-2020. Warmest 13 in bold type. Middle 15 values underlined. Coldest 13 are in italic.

 

12.4 ... warmest Feb day (mean temp) 4th Feb 2004

10.0 ... lowest daily extreme max (16th Feb 1928)

 7.9 ... warmest month of Feb 1779
 7.5 ... second warmest month of Feb 1869
 7.3 ... tied third warmest month of Feb 1990 and 1998

 7.2 ... fifth warmest month of Feb 1794

 7.0 ... 2002

 6.7 ... 1997, 2019

 6.5 ... 1995

 6.4 ... 2011

 6.3 ... 2000, 2020

 6.2 ... 2014
 6.1 ... 2017

 5.9 ... 1989
 5.8 ... 2007

 5.4 ... 1992, 2004, 2008

 5.3 ... 1999

 5.1 ... 2021

 5.0 ... warmest 30-year average (5.01) 1992-2021

 4.9 ... 1988, 2016 ... mean for 1991-2020 and 2001-2021.

 4.8 ... 1982
 4.6 ... 1993
 4.4 ... 2001 and mean for 1981-2010

 4.3 ... 2005

 4.2 ... mean for 1971-2000
 4.1 ... 2009

 4.0 ...  2015 and mean for 1801-1900 and 1901-2000 and

 3.9 ... 2003 and mean for 1659-2021 (all 363 years) -- 3.89  
 3.8 ... 2012 and mean for 1961-1990 and 1701-1800  

 3.7 ... 2006

 3.6 ... 1987

 3.3 ... 1984

 3.2 ... 1994, 2013

 3.0 ... 1981

 2.9 ... mean for 1659-1700 and for 2018

 2.8 ... 2010

 2.5 ... coldest 30-year mean (1670 to 1699) ((2.55 rounded down (2.547)) and 1996

 2.1 ... 1985

 1.7 ... 1983

 1.5 ... 1991

-1.1 ... fifth coldest month of Feb, coldest in recent years 1986
-1.6 ... fourth coldest month of Feb 1740
-1.7 ... third coldest month of Feb 1855
-1.8 ... second coldest month of Feb 1895
-1.9 ... coldest month of Feb 1947

-2.4 ... highest daily mean, lowest value (29th 1904)
-2.8 ... highest daily mean, lowest value not leap year day (27th, 1929)

-3.2 ... running CET by 20th 1855 (!!)

-4.3 ... running CET mid-month 1895 (!!)

-6.3 ... coldest week 6-12 Feb 1895

-8.8 ... coldest Feb day (mean temp) 9th Feb 1816

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Enter your forecast in this thread before the end of the day Sunday 31st January,

or with increasing time penalties before the end of the day Thursday 3rd February. Good luck!

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EWP Precip contest

 

Predict the EWP for February (in mm). Same deadlines as above --

 

Wettest ... ... ... ... 169.5 mm (2020)

former record was ... ... 158.6 mm (1833)

former recent max was 143.2 mm (1990)

1988-2017 avg ... 73.2 mm (highest running 30-yr avg)

____ ____ ____ 1922-1951 avg ... 71.9 mm (secondary max)

1992-2021 avg ... 72.9 mm 

1991-2020 avg ... 72.4 mm

1981-2010 avg ... 66.5 mm

all data 1766-2021 avg 65.6 mm

1777-1806 avg ... 54.3 mm (lowest running 30-yr avg)

___ ___ ___ 1959-1988 avg 60.6 mm (secondary min)

__ recent min ... 13.8 mm (1993)

Driest ... ... ... ... .. 3.6 mm (1891)

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2021 was 78.9 mm, 2020 was 169.5 mm, 

2019 was 54.2 mm, 2018 was 52.8 mm, 2017 was 72.0 mm and 2016 was 80.0 mm. 

2015 was 59.3 mm, 2014 was 136.7 mm, 2013 was 48.3 mm and 2012 was 32.1 mm.

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Combine your predictions and edit up to deadline as you wish. Good luck !!

Edited January 19, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Downburst]

I reckon the mean position is Euro high and west to south westerly airflow for most of the month.

 

I'll go slightly above average

CET: 5.2 C 

EWP: 67.6

[sukayuonsensnow]

High pressure could well still be dominant in the SE half of the UK, more likely to be wet/mild further northwest.

Cold interludes are possible, perhaps a chance of a cold spell but even this would be no longer than a week (and unlikely to be a nationwide event), and I expect some very mild days especially later in the month, more likely in the west but not exclusively. Temperatures will stay close to the average on the whole across more south/southeastern parts, but more variable across northern areas. Becoming very mild for all by the end of the month.

Average to slightly above average rainfall in Scotland and Northern Ireland, average rainfall in Northern England and Wales. Drier than average in southern UK, especially Central Southern England, the London/Home Counties area and Kent/Essex.

Even with a cold spell I think the month overall will be close to or slightly above average temperature wise, and close to average rainfall but with considerable regional variations.

CET: 5.5

EWP: 60mm

Edited January 19, 2022 by sukayuonsensnow
Added more specifics to my prediction

[Frigid]

5.6C and 120mm.

Not expecting anything wintry, maybe some ground frosts and exceptionally wet.

[NeilN]

Hard to predict. I'll say 4.1c and 66mm 

[Summer18]

4.5C & 62mm

[stewfox]

6.1c 55mm

[Lukemcd]

1.2C

 

Luke

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7.6C and 135mm, could be Feb when we have to pay for the dry January

[North-Easterly Blast]

9 minutes ago, Lukemcd said:

1.2C

 

Luke

We have not had a February that cold in 36 years.  To see something that cold we would need to see a significant cold outbreak lasting for most of the month.  We have actually not had a really cold February since 1991 (1.5 CET).  The coldest February of recent times was in 2010 at 2.8*C, although more recently Feb 2018 was close to this at 2.9*C.

[Bobd29]

5.4C and 82.3mm for me please.

[Leo97t]

5.9c and 100mm

[BlueHedgehog074]

Not sure can quite see it being a cold month. Bit of a hunch/feeling any cold spells with possible snow being around the beginning or end of the month.

6.0*C and 80mm, please. 

[SLEETY]

7.1 c 60 mm

[Polar Gael]

6.3C and 120.1mm for me please. 

[richie3846]

6.5c please.

[Weather26]

5.7C and 136mm-This going to be where we end up paying dearly for the dry January.

[JeffC]

4.0 degrees C and 78 mms please

4.0 degrees C and 78 mms please

[SteveB]

5.8c and 73mm please.

[Methuselah]

6C and 66mm of ran please, Roger.

[coldest winter]

Yet another benign, boreing anticyclonic month, particularly for the bulk of England.

6.6 degrees and 35mm precipitation.

[virtualsphere]

3.7C and 49mm please.

[Summer Sun]

5.6c for me please

[Summer8906]

5.8 and 75mm. Rather mild, precipitation close to average, maybe a bit below in the south, above in the north. Very westerly. April more likely to produce snow in the south than February this year I suspect, though hope I am wrong

Edited January 28, 2022 by Summer8906

[The PIT]

Going for 5.5C and 65mm of rain.