Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[Staffmoorlands]

1 hour ago, TSNWK said:

The south will not be milder than yesterday,today and tomorrow with that chart

It’s going to be milder than most of January for the south where temperatures have been below average.

Unsettled ECM but no real cold signalled for the next 10 days

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

It’s going to be milder than most of January for the south where temperatures have been below average.

Unsettled ECM but no real cold signalled for the next 10 days

Aye, will always be milder when cloudy and windy from the Atlantic, than a high over us with light winds, down to -5 in clear skies

[stodge]

Evening all

Some interesting charts starting to re-appear after an extended period of quiet and benign conditions for many.

Most models seem agreed on a fairly potent if short-lived PM incursion next weekend but as to what happens beyond that?

Clearly, there's plenty of life in the old Atlantic yet with some enormous storms to the far north of Iceland and the Faeroes into FI - the HP response to these varies across the models. JMA orients the HP north-south and prolongs our PM spell but then extends a huge ridge NE into Scandinavia. ECM teases and tantalises at T+240 with another PM blast while GFS OP tries a transitory period of mid-Atlantic ridging and it's worth mentioning N'lies in February pack a punch or several and a nice flow of -8 850s would remind some we aren't out of winter.

None of this is resolved yet and other models try to bring back HP close to the British Isles but that looks unconvincing. I do think a potentially chilly and unsettled spell could be on offer for early February which would be, if nothing else, a change on what we've had for most of January.

[Blessed Weather]

All posts discussing the naming of storms have now been moved to the Winter Chat thread. Model output discussion in here please. Many thanks.

[SqueakheartLW]

Well this is new and for anyone who doesn't know yet, we can finally see these charts for ECM on wetterzentrale

Looks like ECM is seeing a colder spell early in February and can I take P44 for the period between 10th and 12th Feb please too. Shame we can't see the individual members like we can with GFS and GEM

9 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

Someone said P1 always verifies  - the ridge at day 8 gets a little more traction - our equiv of the upcoming Boston storm .

To be fair it’s one of the best U.K. snow storms I’ve ever seen modelled, it’s just keeps on snowing and snowing in a blizzard  - if only

P1 not looking as cold and definitely far less interesting and more boring on the 12z. So if P1 always verifies then it has already changed a lot since the 06z

[Ali1977]

Interesting little feature at day 10 in some polar air could hammer the north

[Ali1977]

Scottish hills will get ridiculous snow and drift in this set up , and potentially further south if that PV keeps dropping. 

Which it did, extreme PM weather this where’s the U.K. gone 

 

528 Dam south of the UK - most of the U.K. in heavy squally snow showers 

Edited January 28, 2022 by Ali1977

[Northern Sky]

11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Scottish hills will get ridiculous snow and drift in this set up , and potentially further south if that PV keeps dropping. 

Which it did, extreme PM weather this where’s the U.K. gone 

 

528 Dam south of the UK - most of the U.K. in heavy squally snow showers 

I love the GFS when it comes out with this stuff. Not seen charts like this for a while. I keep hoping that one day something like these charts could actually happen - proper cold zonality. To be honest I really like cold wind and rain so even in the event of the inevitable downgrade in how cold the air is I'm still hopeful of a bit of interesting weather.

Not great when you work outside half the week like I do, but I'd still take it 

[Penrith Snow]

Having just studied tonight's output I have to say the snow chances are being watered down (as expected).

Uppers struggle to get below -5c which in a North westerly ain't going to cut it even in the North.

It's all looking very February 2014 and 2020 which brought heavy snow to the Scottish and Cumbrian hills but little elsewhere.

Even the Beeb failed to mention  snow in its MRF after the bullish comments yesterday.

Still time for change but at the moment it's going the wrong way.

Andy

[ICE COLD]

This is what we need to start seeing in the output and count down to T0 if we’re gonna stand a chance of saving this terrible winter . Can’t believe how terrible model watching has been this winter (excluding part of December) . 

Edited January 28, 2022 by ICE COLD

[Allseasons-Si]

@ICE COLD,you just bet me to it

hello,...tpv paying us a visit on this run and hello @warming

and you can see a perfect example on this gif of the 850's been moderated as the cold air from NE Canada traverses the Atlantic

but i quite like this run as everything but the kitchen sink will be flung at us,...gales,wintry showers,snow showers for the favoured few esp the NW where blizzard conditions may be in the mix,formed troughs,hail/graupel and even some thundery showers,...bring it on i would say

also to mention that there would be some good photography(my preference)of cloudscapes in this clean PM air.looking forward to it.

[Battleground Snow]

Not sure if this has been posted or not, but just noticed the full ECM ensembles are on wetterzentrale now while checking the GFS ones. Be handy if we ever get an epic cold spell again

 

Edited January 29, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[syed2878]

7 hours ago, Staffmoorlands said:

It’s going to be milder than most of January for the south where temperatures have been below average.

Unsettled ECM but no real cold signalled for the next 10 days

  Yes I agree with even update from Exeter in my opinion I think it’s poor for the south of Britain the update does look good for the north though they do mention of wintry conditions developing for north of Britain.

[Kasim Awan]

Looks like the northwesterly toppler has kinda gone.

[joggs]

1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

Looks like the northwesterly toppler has kinda gone.

As expected with how this winter has gone....

[tight isobar]

Even 10hpa , and vents- 500s are dire for last blasts - we need a classic .. model flip in section of uk prog.!!! . Can happen .. but like a watering plant of need... we are thirsty!- 

Edited January 29, 2022 by tight isobar

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

Looks like the northwesterly toppler has kinda gone.

It just seems that whatever is being shown the odds just don't fall in UK favour let's. Face it 

[carinthian]

Morning all. Looks like UKMO out on its own going by the picture below. American models much more zonal flow with prospect of dreaded Euro High developing .

C

[Kasim Awan]

Cairngorms getting snow on ecm / gfs. None elsewhere tbh. .

[carinthian]

28 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. Looks like UKMO out on its own going by the picture below. American models much more zonal flow with prospect of dreaded Euro High developing .

C

Some support from ECM with the UKMO extended. The day 10 chart below shows quite a big difference in the NH pattern compared to GFS. Lets hope ECM is on to something for you guys as the op does show some retrogress of the high taking place.

C

[NewEra21]

You know it's bad when even NWesterlies get downgraded to basically nothing. Story of our winter on this mornings charts with that god damned high pressure taking control once more.

[Nick F]

18 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Some support from ECM with the UKMO extended. The day 10 chart below shows quite a big difference in the NH pattern compared to GFS. Lets hope ECM is on to something for you guys as the op does show some retrogress of the high taking place.

C

EC keeps showing hints of amplification at day 10, but they never get any nearer. The story seems to be a flattening out of any attempts at amplification beyind 5 days ahead, so even the potent northwesterly veering briefly northerly shown recently for  later next week has been flattened by all but UKMO, and we know the UK model rarely verifies when it's on its own. Snow for the Scottish mountains at times from mid-week, but for most the wait goes on ...

Edited January 29, 2022 by Nick F

[IDO]

There has been little hope with the tPV stationed to our NW, the winter killer for the UK and it is in situ for D1-D16 on the GEFS. That means zero chances for HLB'ing to the NW/N/NE. With the Pacific and Siberian highs blocking the movement of that tPV we seem to have to rely on the tPV diving SE over the UK for some PM air. The GEFS mean has never been onboard with the op runs suggesting that, and it is a flat and zonal mean through the run; d8-d16:

This takes us to mid-Feb with the realisation that getting to cold blocking from here in a blocked recurring pattern is a tough ask. As said before, we now await the tPV to weaken for some Spring cold, for March and April, so for the south pretty low confidence in the rest of this winter for that elusive snow.

 

[SLEETY]

Crud ECM  but looks interesting at day TEN........................What you think the chance of it verifying

imgur.com

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56927 views on Imgur: The magic of the Internet

 

[carinthian]

2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

EC keeps showing hints of amplification at day 10, but they never get any nearer. The story seems to be a flattening out of any attempts at amplification beyind 5 days ahead, so even the potent northwesterly veering briefly northerly shown recently for  later next week has been flattened by all but UKMO, and we know the UK model rarely verifies when it's on its own. Snow for northern hills at times from mid-week, but for most the wait goes on ...

Totally agree. For what is is worth the extented UKMO charts seems to default more often and not. Frustration goes on but hope , maybe, ECM will verify sometime soon. The American runs look woeful this morning, especially for you Southerners ! Maybe , one day you will have the last laugh in the snow stakes ! March 2013 comes to mind.

C