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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

Community Team

By Community Team
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread and use the winter chat thread for non-model related discussion.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

For less of a cold-slanted look at the models, please head over to the alternate model discussion. 

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
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Posted

GEM has been churning out flat upper flow profiles over the far N Atlantic for days, so to suddenly see it change, along with GFS, suggests the models are simulating new data that is pointing to more amplification ahead of troughing over eastern N America - which has one or two storms developing on the eastern side of the trough off the ES - causing it to dig more. But I still think the storm heading NE off the ES towards New Foundland is causing swings in output.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Or south moving troughs.

Channel runners would do it for you.

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Let's hope ECM copies it's homework later 

gemnh-0-198 (4).png

That looks the best run of the lot for longjevity so far.

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I dont rate GEM if honest.

But,I do tonight.

Agree.. I’ve seen remarks that it verifies reasonable well but subjectively to me it tends to string coldies along. Maybe it verifies well when out of the spotlight for example when modelling more traditional synoptic patterns

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Agree.. I’ve seen remarks that it verifies reasonable well but subjectively to me it tends to string coldies along. Maybe it verifies well when out of the spotlight for example when modelling more traditional synoptic patterns

I think it got rightly slated for showing a easterly at 66 hours out, but if you remember it was one of the first to pick up on the Greenland block at range when it happened

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)

A better GEFS suite than the 6hrs run but still nowhere near enough support to think the op will verify (YET).

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
7 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Agree.. I’ve seen remarks that it verifies reasonable well but subjectively to me it tends to string coldies along. Maybe it verifies well when out of the spotlight for example when modelling more traditional synoptic patterns

It’s doing quite well at day 5 in 3rd place at the moment, 0z:

238D663C-5844-45EE-983E-26161F193AEC.thumb.png.f329a774acda658b20f4324a43e266b0.png

12z:

76BEA6B7-6C44-4195-8E11-3890B4E1EF2F.thumb.png.e45a9a2ad3afb9e4129b8d625bdb60db.png

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It’s doing quite well at day 5 in 3rd place at the moment, 0z:

238D663C-5844-45EE-983E-26161F193AEC.thumb.png.f329a774acda658b20f4324a43e266b0.png

12z:

76BEA6B7-6C44-4195-8E11-3890B4E1EF2F.thumb.png.e45a9a2ad3afb9e4129b8d625bdb60db.png

Maybe time for it to become the big 4 with ecm , uk, gfs and gem.. interesting that ecm is pretty much top of shop…and is icon not assesssed then?

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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted
4 hours ago, markw2680 said:

Ok this more than likely won’t happen but for it to even be there (yes cherrypicked) it must mean the uncertainty around where the high may end up, even just a few hundred miles west will get us into some pretty cold air. You just never know is all I’m saying…watch this space 

538BB178-B7F0-4D49-825A-87289366C3F9.png

Obviously I’m still NOT saying this will happen but has a bit more support all of a sudden wasn’t I ridiculed earlier for this post just goes to show the bracket is pretty wide atm so whilst we may end up with the high over us it also could give us what we all (most) crave…..

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Anthony Burden Seasoned

Anthony Burden

Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
Posted
18 minutes ago, Nick F said:

GEM has been churning out flat upper flow profiles over the far N Atlantic for days, so to suddenly see it change, along with GFS, suggests the models are simulating new data that is pointing to more amplification ahead of troughing over eastern N America - which has one or two storms developing on the eastern side of the trough off the ES - causing it to dig more. But I still think the storm heading NE off the ES towards New Foundland is causing swings in output.

Hi Nick,Even the German model ICON ,

showing this Atlantic high joining forces with Greenland high dragging 

down some very cold Arctic air from a direct northern blast.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Maybe time for it to become the big 4 with ecm , uk, gfs and gem.. interesting that ecm is pretty much top of shop…and is icon not assesssed then?

Yes, I always think of GEM as one of the big 4 since its upgrade a couple of years ago.  There are no stats for the ICON on the website I use for verification stats.  If anyone has any, might be interesting to compare?

Edited by Mike Poole
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Anthony Burden Seasoned

Anthony Burden

Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
Posted

Evening all,with ECM/GFS/ICON/GEM all going at around 168 hrs Atlantic high joining forces with Greenland 

high,UKMO not so keen,going to be some watch regarding ECM tonight if it joins the pack then ups 

the odds for some real excitement and will set this site a light.

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted (edited)

Surface cold and frosty (hopefully)

2044553755_h850t850eu(5).thumb.webp.81abffdd766afab10095eb90341e6cd2.webp

Potent northerly

1635346986_h850t850eu(6).thumb.webp.2484abf965b51cbca751b7907e2209fe.webp

Cold zonality

1370580439_h850t850eu(78).thumb.png.426ce479494a49351681ea7a13b9452a.png

Havent we been here before...

Think better positioning of the east coast storm is helping on this run....

872244095_h850t850eu(79).thumb.png.e35bedf5de217459cf81b96f5e93ca5f.png

Keep on hoping.....

Edited by minus10
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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted
14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, I always think of GEM as one of the big 4 since its upgrade a couple of years ago.  There are no stats for the ICON on the website I use for verification stats.  If anyone has any, might be interesting to compare?

I totally agree with that, the GEM back in November was the first to pick up on the wintry outcome we had, even though the others wasn’t having any of it   7 days prior, the GEM stuck to it’s guns, and eventually the other models caught up....and it got it spot on

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)

Said it a few times now tis the season of the  Greeny wedges

image.thumb.png.2a1f5920cb3c52e7cf56a0d7ee5f2734.pngDe bilt touched on this outcome a few days ago and may re visit it soon

 

image.png

Edited by winterof79
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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted

Anyone think the Icon 12z has moved closer to the GFS and GEM since the 00z

image.thumb.png.437c87ec42e245d039528d79e374c63e.png

image.thumb.png.8a487bb2b45c7bb061c69d76a55e142c.png

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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted (edited)

yes i agree exactly what i thought,a good attempt at GEM outcome!..could be a better run coming up here on ECM the low at 96 is a lot shallower more organised giving more advection to the high,the 0z was more rounder

Edited by Lukesluckybunch
adding text
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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
1 hour ago, BelgianBlizzard said:

Pub run is early today

gfs-1-180.png

Oh cmon. Haven't you heard the breaking news - GFS HQ has just issued a statement saying the button labelled 18z had been activated instead of button 12z.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)

ECM vs GFS at T120, not looking as good over the Labrador area, next frame key though !!

E8AF25D0-FBDD-4A27-91AD-EE02A0158223.png

AAF32129-E2B1-4444-8B68-CBFD41C4FE35.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

The ECM 00z at 144 vs 12z at 144 below. I’d say it’s defo a step towards the GFS but I can’t see it being a deep cold run. Room for improvement though hopefully.

FCC521B6-13A3-420A-A6EE-CE0B04A63B92.png

79BA73AF-B8AE-43B1-AE73-50F2FEC74190.png

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

The ECM 00z at 144 vs 12z at 144 below. I’d say it’s defo a step towards the GFS but I can’t see it being a deep cold run. Room for improvement though hopefully.

FCC521B6-13A3-420A-A6EE-CE0B04A63B92.png

79BA73AF-B8AE-43B1-AE73-50F2FEC74190.png

No, it has missed the chance to get WAA up the west side of Greenland, which is so important to get anything to stick there.  

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