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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January


Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread and use the winter chat thread for non-model related discussion.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

For less of a cold-slanted look at the models, please head over to the alternate model discussion

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Posted
  • Location: Biddulph, Staffordshire Moorlands 750f ABSL
  • Location: Biddulph, Staffordshire Moorlands 750f ABSL

12z ECM is up there with the worst runs we have seen this winter. 1st Feb below

image.thumb.png.3644559f02fb78b39de87a90908de139.png

Edited by Staffmoorlands
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Of the hundreds upon hundreds of individual "interesting " ensembles members that have been posted on this thread, this Winter, on this thread,  zero have verified.  Zero.

Whilst the trop PV remains entrenched over NE Canada,  there is very little chance of anything interesting occurring. 

 

Aye, I always ignore cherry picked ensemble members, pure straw clutch too

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
6 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

12z ECM is up there with the worst runs we have seen this winter. 1st Feb below

image.thumb.png.3644559f02fb78b39de87a90908de139.png

Wow, what a stinker, unfortunately it ties in with the MetOupdate that high pressure will only slowly lose its grip and it will be well into February before zonality returns.

What happens then is anyone's guess but the cold zonality hinted at yesterday seems to have gone.

Look on the brightside it looks like more snow for our favourite Greek beaches  

Andy

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

In essence we have throughout January 2022 endured a displaced Bartlett… semi quasi high pressure that was | is self perpetuating and just when we think it will break down it appears to back fighting and even  double downs with a tendency to slip towards traditional  Bartlett territory…

today I was measuring up the lawn and placing order for lawn seed.. I’ve switched to spring preparation mode…

 

 

 

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31 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Of the hundreds upon hundreds of individual "interesting " ensembles members that have been posted on this thread, this Winter, on this thread,  zero have verified.  Zero.

Whilst the trop PV remains entrenched over NE Canada,  there is very little chance of anything interesting occurring. 

 

More HP is quite likely!

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Very monotonous from the ECM...so nothings changed! just the odd passing Pm slot with lows getting to our north east but with little influence as that High is still not far away. Will be interesting to see the pressure anomaly so far for this winter, a black hole just to our south west?

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Compared to yesterday's trends, the models today seem to have backtracked somewhat showing more high pressure influence.. rather than low pressure.. let's see if we see a swing back away from high pressure tomorrow. Looks like the end of the month and start of February will see a rather typical battle between the azores high and icelandic low and a broadly westerly flow with potential for something colder from the NW at times, but equally the azores high may be too close to allow any feed of particularly cold air - it could all head to our east and into SE Europe again!

 All eyes on upstream developments NE Canada/NE USA seaboard, if we see the trough stall in situ somewhat this should enable greater ridging north and advection west of the azores high.. but if too much fluidity will probably allow the azores high to stay in situ and leave us in a generally westerly atlantic flow - at least for a time.

Fully expect future runs from the models to show  azores high influence, westerly zonal and polar maritime zonal from run to runs, making for rather frustrating viewing trying to see the line of travel. End product could be a mix of them all - indeed very likely.. which will be a change from the winter as a whole so far which has seen one influence dominating over all others - the azores high.

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
1 hour ago, shunthebartlett92 said:

What i cant understand (this is one for those with more met knowledge than i do), is why that trough digging well into E/SE europe cannot move just 500 miles further west but it just never does. I would imagine the jet stream is the significant influencer here, its too strong to allow a NW-SE aligned trough to persist for any length of time, and the other blinking irritating factor in UK synoptics, the azores high!

Pretty much what you have suggested, the high needs to be alot further North, this sends the jet further north, and when it returns south into Europe we need it to cut back west to advect cold from central and northern Europe

Edited by Battleground Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

ECM op was an outlier.

The mean comfortablely showing a negative AO at  day 10.

The massive cold pv segment is a problem though.

Still looking at the post day 10 de bilt graph for a  colder cluster to appear at the moment.

The longer the AO is negative the more chance the trop PV can be pushed away from Canada, looks like a slow process with the depth of cold there.

 

EDH1-240 (12).gif

Edited by Battleground Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.

A look at the EPS ensemble clusters.

At 168h, most of the EPS (clusters) agree with the EC Op, with little to no Atlantic ridging.
A 10-member cluster sides with the more amplified GFS option, although not as much as UKMO.

23jan12EPS-120.thumb.png.2188403b5dd5b13f13123a7e4c0a2966.png

More interesting are the extended clusters IMO.

23jan12EPS-264.thumb.png.f95bec60bb5b2b20daa0ea1867c01ba3.png

Obviously increased influence of heights to the Northeast on all clusters.

Especially cluster 2 (14 members) stands out most, developing something looking like a proper Scandinavian High. Admittedly with perhaps a bit too much of a Southeasterly influence, but at that lead time that is far too much detail.
Zonal cluster the smallest.

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Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, Scotland 129 m
  • Weather Preferences: snow in winter,warm sun in summer!!!!
  • Location: Coatbridge, Scotland 129 m
11 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

D0, D9, spot the difference for the UK:

Screenshot_20220123-194825.thumb.png.7301d2c4e248a609a0c8409e788c5210.png

Screenshot_20220123-194836.thumb.png.23103e0ccc9e73f8b77175db71118297.png

Can this really just go on and on and on?

Screenshot_20220123-194836.png

Till spring mate , then it will dissappear 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
9 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

A look at the EPS ensemble clusters.

At 168h, most of the EPS (clusters) agree with the EC Op, with little to no Atlantic ridging.
A 10-member cluster sides with the more amplified GFS option, although not as much as UKMO.

23jan12EPS-120.thumb.png.2188403b5dd5b13f13123a7e4c0a2966.png

More interesting are the extended clusters IMO.

23jan12EPS-264.thumb.png.f95bec60bb5b2b20daa0ea1867c01ba3.png

Obviously increased influence of heights to the Northeast on all clusters.

Especially cluster 2 (14 members) stands out most, developing something looking like a proper Scandinavian High. Admittedly with perhaps a bit too much of a Southeasterly influence, but at that lead time that is far too much detail.
Zonal cluster the smallest.

Heights to the NE I guess makes sense but only if the core of the PV remains over NE Canada.. someone posted charts showing heights developing over Siberian side of the pole which could only help I suppose.

Traditionally scandi heights more likely in Feb and March than Nov to Jan, plausible. However short term a scandi trough scenario most likely.

Quite a few possibilities on the table at present. A more NW-SE aligned jet digging through scandi could I suppose enable heights/wedge development on NE flank reinforcing core of PV to the NW..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
54 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Very monotonous from the ECM...so nothings changed! just the odd passing Pm slot with lows getting to our north east but with little influence as that High is still not far away. Will be interesting to see the pressure anomaly so far for this winter, a black hole just to our south west?

Not really if you take the whole of the winter so far

image.thumb.png.2c8a1afaae3a758305d5da4656629444.png

However if I just use January 2022 so far then a big red anomaly sits over and just to the west of the UK

image.thumb.png.bf6c6f939086eca56c35766fdd3bf636.png

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
4 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Not really if you take the whole of the winter so far

image.thumb.png.2c8a1afaae3a758305d5da4656629444.png

However if I just use January 2022 so far then a big red anomaly sits over and just to the west of the UK

image.thumb.png.bf6c6f939086eca56c35766fdd3bf636.png

Jan 22 a month with a displaced azores high that made its home over the UK it seems!

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

Hi gang ,thought I'd post before we get shut down , 2hrs and no post , plenty of winter left , loads of frigid arctic Air ,loads of baps in me freezer ,Big fat blobby high pressure needs zapping ,bring back some zonal , this should be in Ramp thread , cheers gang .

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

I still think the longer term doesn't look too bad, of course the GFS could be horribly wrong past day 10, but other models are showing a negative AO at day 10.

Definitely got a chance of an Atlantic ridge linking up with a drifting Arctic high in early February

gfsnh-0-282 (7).png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

 

However if I just use January 2022 so far then a big red anomaly sits over and just to the west of the UK

image.thumb.png.bf6c6f939086eca56c35766fdd3bf636.png

you need that red anomaly to be over Greenland and the blue one over scandi to be further west and south.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

Doesn't look like we are any nearer to anything noteworthy in the modelling (i include, cold, mild, exceptionally windy or wet in that). 

Not a bad FI from the pub run operational again but even that manages to surround the UK with cold without really giving us a cold spell and is way to far out to look at specifics in any event. 

A favourable pattern change does seem as far away as ever tonight. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Herts 115m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Surprises
  • Location: Welwyn Herts 115m ASL
1 hour ago, legritter said:

Hi gang ,thought I'd post before we get shut down , 2hrs and no post , plenty of winter left , loads of frigid arctic Air ,loads of baps in me freezer ,Big fat blobby high pressure needs zapping ,bring back some zonal , this should be in Ramp thread , cheers gang .

Like a coiled spring winter will come. This High Pressure has to give way to something unstable and perhaps cold this time of year to enable spring to happen. I'm confident for surprises.. all be it late and and when some don't want it (-:

...Watching the 500mb and Jet Stream with interest... 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

You still need a telescope and a vivid imagination to see the type of cold event most of us would like to see. The best chance of something is around T192 -240 but that looks a bit to far East for most.
 

we keep hunting fi but there’s not much encouraging output tbh at the moment. 
 

Ecm shows this to point of taking the………….

18B89AB5-D875-40D1-80CA-447B0DE79C48.png

0FA54333-F381-4D66-9375-60AF5696403E.png

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
13 minutes ago, That ECM said:

You still need a telescope and a vivid imagination to see the type of cold event most of us would like to see. The best chance of something is around T192 -240 but that looks a bit to far East for most.
 

we keep hunting fi but there’s not much encouraging output tbh at the moment. 

18B89AB5-D875-40D1-80CA-447B0DE79C48.png

Yes that looks about it, quick toppler around day 7 with GEM looking about the best. 

710D8DC1-FCA3-4C15-B447-7C3DBF4AAF2D.png

D1803C46-7D87-48A6-86CB-66A08178B95B.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Morning. Both UKMO and ECM models this morning pick up that wave disturbance formation in Mid Atlantic to run across Central Britain later next weekend. Not sure it will be a game changer but does dig the colder air further south with the first prospects of some wintry conditions to end the month. It appears a rather strange formation in the high pressure zone but could develop more significantly  in later runs or could just disappear . However, it is being shown in the European models and is not without interest for you folk. 

C

ECMOPEU00_168_2.png

Edited by carinthian
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Absolutely dreadful output this morning with any potential cold still weeks away, if at all.

The Winter killing trop PV over NE Canada shows zero sign of moving anytime soon.

If you want snow, take a holiday to the Eastern Med.

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