Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[AFCBSNOW]

10 hours ago, mb018538 said:

It was the same here - crystal clear and only just below 0c. Upper air is very mild, so a very cold night not as easy to achieve. Usually with very warm upper air we don't get clear highs as they tend to get a load of muck trapped underneath. 

That said, with the air not mixing and the high just sitting there again today, tonight looks colder than last night:

Ironically, on the south coast it was one of the coldest nights of the season, i woke up to -2 in Bournemouth and it was a real shock at 7am

[Battleground Snow]

Icon has the pattern a little west compared to its previous run, may have just sneaked a northerly out by 168

[legritter]

Hi fellow posters ,expect many of us have looked at the 168hr ECM chart tonight and thought, right a bit further north mate and slightly more north west, or even much further north then several hundred miles north east ,you get the drift .its o so frustrating, but we all go to bed and know that in the morning we may have some of the best charts for  snow and cold , but hey gang ,There's a big Freezer to our North ,lets hope it comes our way , we're in the hunt for cold gang , GFS next ,what a carry on ,we're crazy ,Big sausage baps and Stella's all round gang  

[stodge]

Evening all

A glorious day here in East London and anticyclonic rules the roost for the foreseeable - as each cell of HP starts to decline SE a new one comes in from the Atlantic to continue the pattern.

One or two models sniffing for a change of pattern in the furthest reaches of FI - possibly a stronger Atlantic (JMA) or the long-awaited retrogression (GFS Control).

As for GFS I'm still struck by how quiet the Atlantic looks for late January - the anticyclone is quite intense (over 1045 MB) so we might get lucky for some frost and fog (we'll see and don't take too much notice of the 850s)  and the overall NH profile not the worst I've ever seen.

[legritter]

Since my last post ,everyone has disappeared, think I've guessed why ,gfs is churning out so all busy watching that ,hang on Stodge as posted , I'll hit the submit button and catch up , cheers . 

[feb1991blizzard]

15 minutes ago, legritter said:

Since my last post ,everyone has disappeared, think I've guessed why ,gfs is churning out so all busy watching that ,hang on Stodge as posted , I'll hit the submit button and catch up , cheers . 

Its a much better run fairly early on actually, the trough is dropping from the North, don't think it will actually make it re- proper snowy cold N'ly, but it will be much nearer than its previous run.

[Ali1977]

the first improving run for a while - in the semi reliable anyway !! Need the WAA to go sharply up now otherwise the coldest air will miss us - which it may well do anyway!! 

[edinburgh_1992]

23 minutes ago, stodge said:

Evening all

A glorious day here in East London and anticyclonic rules the roost for the foreseeable - as each cell of HP starts to decline SE a new one comes in from the Atlantic to continue the pattern.

One or two models sniffing for a change of pattern in the furthest reaches of FI - possibly a stronger Atlantic (JMA) or the long-awaited retrogression (GFS Control).

As for GFS I'm still struck by how quiet the Atlantic looks for late January - the anticyclone is quite intense (over 1045 MB) so we might get lucky for some frost and fog (we'll see and don't take too much notice of the 850s)  and the overall NH profile not the worst I've ever seen.

I'm jealous of everyone in England, the HP is not far enough north and here in Scotland it is bringing endless gloom, mild weather and quite gusty winds. No change in sight either... The models are just depressing, I've stopped checking them every day as there isn't much point. 

[Ali1977]

The NE may just scrape a wintery feeling day here!! And it may at least introduce a colder high pressure with it being slightly further north !! If it’s correct of course!! 

Edited January 13, 2022 by Ali1977

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its a much better run fairly early on actually, the trough is dropping from the North, don't think it will actually make it re- proper snowy cold N'ly, but it will be much nearer than its previous run.

That was helped by the USA storm been just 200 miles west as it slid up  Greenland after.

Icon looked like it would do the same too, will keep an eye on what the JMA does later

[TSNWK]

An option to play with in a week?

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

An option to play with in a week?

To be honest i would just be happy to see those FI hemispheric patterns with a streched PV and wave 3 return, unlikely to get anything before Feb now so lets give uus the best chance for Feb.

[blizzard81]

The Siberian high looks far more influential by day 8. The ecm op showed this also tonight. 

[Nick F]

Winter Storm affecting NE USA this coming Monday is shown by GFS, a few days later as it moves over Baffin Bay, to help to amplify the flow toward southern Greenland and Iceland - and this helps push a trough in the jet south toward the North Sea by Thursday introducing a glancing northerly flow towards the east.

However, the flow flattens again - we are relying on those eastern seaboard storms to amplify briefly what is otherwise essentially a flat upper flow north and northwest of the UK -given the background pattern of TPV to the N and NW.

Edited January 13, 2022 by Nick F

[Don]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To be honest i would just be happy to see those FI hemispheric patterns with a streched PV and wave 3 return, unlikely to get anything before Feb now so lets give uus the best chance for Feb.

That's the issue though, it was mid January, late January and now February.  We've been here before!

Not saying we won't get a decent cold spell this winter, but there is that doubt.

Edited January 13, 2022 by Don

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Don said:

That's the issue though, it was mid January, late January and now February.  We've been here before!

Yes i know, but thats the way its worked out, i would far rather see a trop SSW pre-cursor pattern than a pants wishbone effect tame toppler Northerly.

[Day 10]

And this ladies & gents is what we call the tortoise pattern.

[Dancerwithwings]

GFS 18z Colder uppers further West, I know it’s just short of a weeks time..but it’s noticeable/movements on this run,  heights West & North.... this HP!!! where is it going W/N/E/S...

12z 

18z

[Don]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes i know, but thats the way its worked out, i would far rather see a trop SSW pre-cursor pattern than a pants wishbone effect tame toppler Northerly.

Yes true and at least it's going to be fairly seasonal in the southern half of the UK and much preferable to 2013/14 and 2019/20 IMO! 

[Nick F]

Now, if only we could shrink the mammouth high to half its size and get cold air from the east underneath ... 

[blizzard81]

I don't know why but I've got a funny feeling that anything could happen with this high at days 8 - 12. The one thing I'm not seeing on the models is a sinking of the high into central Europe. That's an incredibly good foundation to build upon. 

[blizzard81]

This looks promising. 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

This looks promising. 

This doesn't though.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This doesn't though.

Marginally better than the 12z but it is the pub run I suppose lol. 

[blizzard81]

There is reason for hope. The GFS control is showing much better amplification like the op and look at the Siberian high. We just need a favourable gap to bring eastern promise. Something to look out for on the 00z runs in the morning. 

Edited January 13, 2022 by blizzard81