Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[damianslaw]

My expectation is for heights to maintain their grip over the UK for some time, with the cold trough to our east just a little too far away to pull in a cold northerly.. we may see a glancing polar shot 17-18th but watered down from what some models are showing today.

A generally very quiet mid winter period of weather coming up. This winter certainly so far has the blocking not in the right place to deliver sustained cold.. the Atlantic remains very quiet despite a strong PV, an odd set up. Not to say in time the blocks may fall into place right for cold as they are more likely to do as we move through second half of winter.

Edited January 10, 2022 by damianslaw

[Purga]

I think most of us would take this FI rendition...

Likely to evolve into an easterly thereafter.

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, Purga said:

I think most of us would take this FI rendition...

Likely to evolve into an easterly thereafter.

No doubt such synoptics will manifest in March and April as they so often do! Nice to look at.

[Singularity]

Among other things the resolving of how the USA/Atlantic interaction unfolds this weekend into next week will provide an excellent case study for how important even a small cut-off low’s position and timing can be for the broader scale evolution.

It seems that the further south it is by Friday, the more the Atlantic ridge becomes oriented SE to NW prior to toppling, leading to a further west position early next week as a low drops to our east.

However, as usual, it’s not the only major moving part. The timing of the USA low remains to be resolved too and it’s interaction (however much) with the cut-off low is also important. Being such a vigorous system, it has a larger than usual impact on what goes on across the pond.

Then there’s the the stretching, focus-shifting polar vortex to factor in.

No wonder the models have some wide spread going on!

[tight isobar]

There’s more than a decent cold snap in there! And when you start to get belly flopping of members beyond the mean... you have to start to take note!

[geordiekev]

29 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Among other things the resolving of how the USA/Atlantic interaction unfolds this weekend into next week will provide an excellent case study for how important even a small cut-off low’s position and timing can be for the broader scale evolution.

It seems that the further south it is by Friday, the more the Atlantic ridge becomes oriented SE to NW prior to toppling, leading to a further west position early next week as a low drops to our east.

However, as usual, it’s not the only major moving part. The timing of the USA low remains to be resolved too and it’s interaction (however much) with the cut-off low is also important. Being such a vigorous system, it has a larger than usual impact on what goes on across the pond.

Then there’s the the stretching, focus-shifting polar vortex to factor in.

No wonder the models have some wide spread going on!

Precisely 1 of the reasons I'm not taking any of the models at face value atm. There was a cut off low progged in next 2 days which had large ramifications on outcome beyond so until any consistency in next couple of days, all very much in the air

[syed2878]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Trying to work out how the Atlantic amplifications will verify remains very difficult. Basically it’s down to upstream trough and Arctic blocking together with the tpv temp split and how those features come about re timing. Absolutely impossible to put any detail on the broad pattern.  What I have noted is that as runs are coming within the 5/8 day timeframe, the amplification of the MAR is increasing somewhat. How sharp is now the question. Currently looks a bit too flat with the deep cold more likely to be to our east than across us. But it remains fluid.

  I think the GFS is struggling a little placing the Weeknd storm over the water I think models will be a lot more clearer once this storm in the US is out of the way and see what energy it has left behind. How is the ECM 46 looks this evening BA?

[Weather-history]

GFS 0z op run is very dry away from NW/N Scotland...   current January EWP is 27mm up to 9th.     

[TSNWK]

29 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

GFS 0z op run is very dry away from NW/N Scotland...   current January EWP is 27mm up to 9th.     

Yep.. high pressure moving in today ebbs and flows over us for rest of run On the 00z no northerly at all throughout..  I guess it will looking for inversion cold.. although personally I'm not minded on increasing heating bills unlesss there is snow

 

 

Edited January 11, 2022 by TSNWK

[IDO]

The GEFS mean suggests UK HP up until around the 23rd then the mean high shifts west, but with the mean tPV easing back to the NW, the best we can get is maybe a NW to SE flow somewhere in our vicinity. Whether we are under the auspices of a ridge or trough will be the question?

Mean D8-15> 

As suggested before, with the omnipresent Siberian and Pacific highs this looks like a long term pattern where the tPV moves to our north from NW to NE, back and forth. We should get scraps of colder uppers but nothing of note and depends where the high sits as to surface conditions. Without a reboot of the background signals I think for those looking for snow in January it may be frustrating. Hoping a new signal emerges sooner rather than later.

The models are closing in on that 16-17th possible northerly, but it still looks too far east for the UK, so low probability at the moment the call.

[That ECM]

Hunt for cold. Easy everywhere but us. Although fog and frost about, it’s not the cold we want. Dry welcome though.

[KTtom]

Ens members supporting a northerly getting fewer and fewer every run now, think we need to accept the vast majority of January will be high pressure dominated. From a selfish point of view its alot better than severe gales and rain. Hopefully some sunshine will help relieve the feeling its aleays dark at this time of year!

[Kasim Awan]

6 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Ens members supporting a northerly getting fewer and fewer every run now, think we need to accept the vast majority of January will be high pressure dominated. From a selfish point of view its alot better than severe gales and rain. Hopefully some sunshine will help relieve the feeling its aleays dark at this time of year!

Not selfish at all mate many others including myself share that point of view. Not fun out here in a severe gale. In winter a relatively mild high pressure is the next best setup after proper winter weather.

[Kasim Awan]

Well after that 00z set I think we can quite firmly close the doors on any wintry weather in the next 8 days / 19th January.

[geordiekev]

Good to know the models are nailed on for next 20 days, amazing how mild charts seem to be dead certs from some posters.

Must update my model for newbies scrapbook

[DavidS]

Yes, bit of a snooze fest unfortunately. High pressure either over us or just to our west. Plenty of cold on offer to our east, but no sign of high pressure backing further west or north, to allow the UK to tap into it. Our weather probably not very mild or cold for the next week to ten days, just a bit meh.

Edited January 11, 2022 by DavidS

[bluearmy]

6 hours ago, syed2878 said:

  I think the GFS is struggling a little placing the Weeknd storm over the water I think models will be a lot more clearer once this storm in the US is out of the way and see what energy it has left behind. How is the ECM 46 looks this evening BA?

Drifted towards higher heights and slp over more than just se U.K. weeks 2/3 

hence temps a little more seasonal week 3 but the transition to where it was weeks 4/5/6 remains (+NAO) 

clusters show mobile zonal for this period is solid - climatology then …. no signal for anything unusual 

[Nick2373]

If it’s cloudy overcast grey dull nothingness you like well the 0z delivers, South west coasts may get some drizzle chucked in for good measure! But in all the years model watching I’ve never seen such a boring dull set up. Onwards to the 06z please few members struggled over the cold side 20% chance of something more cold who knows perhaps a flip? 

Edited January 11, 2022 by Nick2373

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

44 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Well after that 00z set I think we can quite firmly close the doors on any wintry weather in the next 8 days / 19th January.

Been closed for a while.

With the positioning of the HP there should be some cold nights ahead.  Still, one still gets the feeling that there will be a diving LP or 2 down the line with the HP backing west.  Just have to wait a while

BFTP

 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Hi morning cold hunters. Yes not looking very good for anortherly now from the latest runs. The 00z ens show 1 or 2 cold members but that's clutching at straws . I am going to say one thing though is that until it gets to 96hr .yes sounds like a broken record but a flip could still happen. We have seen it from cold to mild. But from mild to cold is a different kettle of fish. Hoping for an upgrade on the 06z.

Chart below 00z ens showing 1or 2 cold shots from yhe 16th onwards.

Just now, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Hi morning cold hunters. Yes not looking very good for anortherly now from the latest runs. The 00z ens show 1 or 2 cold members but that's clutching at straws . I am going to say one thing though is that until it gets to 96hr .yes sounds like a broken record but a flip could still happen. We have seen it from cold to mild. But from mild to cold is a different kettle of fish. Hoping for an upgrade on the 06z.

Chart below 00z ens showing 1or 2 cold shots from yhe 16th onwards.

Chart is for south Yorkshire 

[jules216]

This winter is turning out to be very dry, January here so far 6mm and december was just below 20mm, no precipitation/Snow in sight either. Positives are so far: lack of depressive inversions,lakes are frozen-good fór skating,no muddy Kingdom either and days are discretely getting longer and spring is not far away

[carinthian]

Morning all. Although only -6 c this morning it feels much colder than that with a biting wind and full cloud cover. A day ventured not far from the wood burner me thinks. Anyway back to the models, I certainly would not give up a Northerly for the second half of the month. The ECM chart below at 144t still keeps the TPV to the NE and the high pressure cell to the west of the British Isles. Further adjustments are likely in the day to day runs this week. Experts over here still thinking of a fall in height eventually over Europe even though the main models do not presently indicate that. Pressed on the reasoning behind that, they think the TPV over NE Europe is likely to become more expansive and influential into the second part of the month. Still the British Isles on the inside looking out for real cold for the time being. Another area of uncertainty towards the end of next weekend is the positioning of lower heights out in the Western North Atlantic,currently 50/50 of over ride of the high cell or undercut. So although the models seem very bland for you lot they are not without interest looking a bit further ahead. So think at the moment rather cold remains the theme with the potential for upgrade still there.

C

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,the models firming up on a long fetched dry period under high pressure that will reposition 

itself several times.Freezing fog frost all on the cards,day time temperatures remaining in single figures.

With the high pressure repositioning that very cold weather to the east always a possibility,central England

temperatures for the month could well go into negative zone.

 

[Catacol]

42 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

If it’s cloudy overcast grey dull nothingness you like well the 0z delivers, South west coasts may get some drizzle chucked in for good measure! But in all the years model watching I’ve never seen such a boring dull set up. Onwards to the 06z please few members struggled over the cold side 20% chance of something more cold who knows perhaps a flip? 

The azores ridge is certainly poised to enjoy - at least according to the models - its upcoming trip to France. The ensembles do seem to have shifted the emphasis away from the mid atlantic to the continent which for us means a significant shift in weather type. Gone will be options for polar north westerlies, and instead we get a context that will make forecasting specific areas of fog/frost/mirk/mild a tough ask. Much less emphasis on rain. One thing that will be certain if the ridge does get glued to France - we won't see snow. As ever with the UK - small shifts in the locations of a block make huge differences to the surface conditions, and of all surface conditions snow is the hardest for us to find.

Have people spotted articles coming out about lightning strikes over the pole? Twice many in the last 12 months as the previous 9 years combined according to a report in the Independent. Evidence of more moist and unstable air over the arctic than we have had before. With changes like this ongoing, and happening swiftly, I am more convinced than ever that analogues of past winters are becoming redundant. Variations in global weather, and in our UK weather, look certain to continue and grow apace. Extremes more frequent. And for the snow hopers on here like me, that means at some point in some year in the short to medium term we will land a winter extreme such as we had in 2018 again..

[Battleground Snow]

Icon and GFS disagree with the track of the mid Atlantic low,

Agree chances are slim for a 3 day cold snap, but I wouldn't say over yet, with all the moving parts over the next 7-8 days.

Canada low a little further west on this run  sends a bit more WAA into Greenland and may help things further on around 150