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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January


Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread and use the winter chat thread for non-model related discussion.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

For less of a cold-slanted look at the models, please head over to the alternate model discussion

Recommended Posts

A fresh thread and a slight change in the plan for it, so please have a read below. 

We need to tip the scales more towards model discussion in this thread, so while it'll stay as a hunt for cold thread (the non-cold slanted alternative thread is still available), we do ask that all posts contain discussion around the model output. The winter chat thread is already active, so is the ideal place for non-model related stuff, including ramps and moans:

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly

Please report posts you think break these guidelines, and don't respond to them. If there's someone's posts you'd rather not see, you can have the forum block them for you, using the ignore function

Thank you and happy cold hunting!

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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    Morning all,GFS/ECM/GEM showing at 144 hrs some retrogression of high pressure into Atlantic allowing 

    colder 850hpa more Arctic source,one to watch under a long fetched high pressure.Temperatures in

    the south look like remaining cold possibly very cold under clear skies with freezing fog and frost.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    4 minutes ago, Paul said:

    It's actually not as cold on the UKV, which is the higher resolution MetOffice model. It'll be about cloud and fog amounts, which are notoriously hard to sort out under high pressure. 

    not-as-cold.png

    https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/ukv

     

    Subzero in NI. ( small part granted)!

    😁🥶

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
    6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Subzero in NI. ( small part granted)!

    😁🥶

    Freezing Fog on Lough Neagh perhaps?

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    5 minutes ago, Downburst said:

    Freezing Fog on Lough Neagh perhaps?

    I'm not familiar with Ireland North or South sadly but I guess freezing fog could be responsible - is freezing fog denser near water?

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    GFS a little better around ridging Greenland at 162, that storm seems to be giving the Americans headaches already for Thursday, which affects our ridge a few days after.

    At the moment it looks like the high will be too close to us to get a direct northernly, but alot of uncertainty

    gfsnh-0-162 (17).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
    On 10/01/2022 at 09:57, Paul said:

    It's actually not as cold on the UKV, which is the higher resolution MetOffice model. It'll be about cloud and fog amounts, which are notoriously hard to sort out under high pressure. 

    not-as-cold.png

    https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/ukv

     

    And yet the UKV is way out at just T+4.

    I think this week is more about just checking SAT24 and your own weather station rather than the models. Especially when a super high resolution model such as the UKV can't pin down PPN at this time frame. 

    radar.png

    ukv.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
    11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    I'm not familiar with Ireland North or South sadly but I guess freezing fog could be responsible - is freezing fog denser near water?

    The cold zone shown on the chart corresponds to the Lake, a very large lake. With High Pressure and cold inversion I would say the relatively warmer water of the Lough will cause more fog, but I am basing that on basic theoretical understanding of Fog. the lake stands out west of Belfast. 

    image.thumb.png.8d2b6086b3e35fb90c278d784191ded7.png

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    We really are very close to notable cold [email protected] . The high placement is as again need for watch with placement evolve..It really won’t take a lot of adjusting to make things look quite different. Anyway even as modelled atm it’s far far from mild as you can get. 

    4419E001-E8C3-4ED4-91B6-7A205A782AD6.png

    A9EDDA89-646F-4484-BC88-332E6C72CD66.png

    8FC3E39C-5D80-460C-87C6-9CB20EEFC90C.png

    CAF1CB01-F3E9-452F-BD52-CC3B5A8B25CF.png

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Also we have two toys to play with. So it’s getting the notions of if/ but/ maybe.. but with a decent n- hem profile.. and two height syncs in format... there is plenty to chew over right now!

    91498B2E-211C-4A8C-9D3D-C987CE859177.png

    1072854D-529B-4837-8882-8CBB1FACBDA2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Well...

    image.thumb.png.bfbb197c71a7f23aaa1442d153b3acda.png

    Outlook looks cold, dry ,foggy to me ..the surface never really goes mild on 6z..

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    Posted
  • Location: Biddulph, Staffordshire Moorlands 750f ABSL
  • Location: Biddulph, Staffordshire Moorlands 750f ABSL

    6z GFS continues the recent theme of a prolonged period of settled weather with varying amounts of cloud/sunshine. Temperatures around average for the time of year but maybe colder in central and south eastern areas of the UK for a time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, Snow in Winter
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent

    Well it has to be P11 for me.....

    image.thumb.png.fc874f3287a7c846311e10918847bd0d.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
    3 minutes ago, Shunter said:

    Well it has to be P11 for me.....

    image.thumb.png.fc874f3287a7c846311e10918847bd0d.png

    Well we all know the rare breed on here who are mild lovers will go for P16 at the same time frame

    image.thumb.png.13b700f19c525ce089abe73f0006b364.png

    Like you. I'd take P11 also

    Edited by SqueakheartLW
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    18 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

    Well we all know the rare breed on here who are mild lovers will go for P16 at the same time frame

    image.thumb.png.13b700f19c525ce089abe73f0006b364.png

    Like you. I'd take P11 also

    Lets hope P11 verifies and plunges us into the 1947 redux and all the medium / long range forecasters and contingency planners in the country are taking P45 - can't see it though somehow.

     

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
    4 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

    P11 is absolutely insane on 850’s. 
    Day 9

    28B78299-BE87-4769-B777-0369957AB446.png

    Would that be an 850 record I wonder - obviously if it happened - which we know it won’t 

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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    Ok this more than likely won’t happen but for it to even be there (yes cherrypicked) it must mean the uncertainty around where the high may end up, even just a few hundred miles west will get us into some pretty cold air. You just never know is all I’m saying…watch this space 

    538BB178-B7F0-4D49-825A-87289366C3F9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    After looking at this mornings runs 'Limpet High' is the first thing that comes to mind, ECM brings little joy and in fact is a snooze fest whilst naturally GFS tries to bring in a bit more amplification and the odd brief Am plunge (mainly a glimpsing shot).

    As for the cherry picky perturbations...when has a rogue really cold one ever come to fruition? pointless...

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    Same old same old with gfs 06z. Only a couple of ensemble runs sustain incursions of cold for more than a day or so and even the insane minus 20 perterbation  11 only does so for a day. 7

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