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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022


Message added by Paul,

Please remember this is a model-based discussion.  Some chat is ok, but a weather model related theme should run throughout.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

For less chat and a more straight-up model discussion take a look at the alternate model discussion

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
27 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

04th Jan and your Already writing it off?? How bizarre just like the UK weather.

I'd say writing it off till the last third of the month is reasonable where there are still opportunities up for grabs at that point. We are still looking for trends later in the month to see if the HP system over us is able to drain to the NW if the PV behaves and moves into Asia. 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

image.thumb.png.58ad587fdd7968abbf80cca613892888.png
 

Extraordinary cold for the NE US if this t168 comes off…which I think it will.  Wow that’s cold…

As regards to our HP will it/won’t it ridge north, NE /NW….I think we’ll have it oscillating around for a while yet, affecting the South more…..and we’ll see nothing of real ‘cold interest’ until we get into final 3rd of Jan where potentially we’ll see some charts of real interest, ‘watch’ zone
 

BFTP

 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.fd1d9a924c698aa93646706a703e53a0.png

Middle of Jan.

Sucks.

those fortunate to be getting snow thurs and fri should enjoy it,it looks a long long way until the next chance.

Yes NW not much point sugar coating it looking proper rank

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl

Horrible for cold are the above charts, so hope we get dry.

Break time again lol.

Edited by joggs
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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

There are zero building blocks to cold across any NWP output currently. No point in trying to spin it any other way. Absolutely dire for the heart of winter. Would be amazed if Jan doesn’t come in above average temp wise.

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Posted
  • Location: Biddulph, Staffordshire Moorlands 750f ABSL
  • Location: Biddulph, Staffordshire Moorlands 750f ABSL

ECM continues the mild theme until mid month. 2nd half is still up for grabs

 

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
9 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

ECM continues the mild theme until mid month. 2nd half is still up for grabs

 

image.png

I'm not sure how the second half of January is still up for grabs.

Your chart takes us to mid month, and if that chart is correct, we would be at least another 10 days away from proper cold.

So, no chance of cold until late January at the very earliest and zero sign of anything then too.

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Posted
  • Location: Marazion
  • Location: Marazion

As a newbie to posting and more an observer, I believe we are at the cusp of some very interesting weather. I am not very knowledgeable regarding the models etc, but am a firm believer of chaos theory. We are experiencing some unusual weather patterns around the globe. Its only a matter of time before its our turn. Expect the unexpected.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.

At 144h, ECM Op is different from GFS, UKMO and GEM (and many GEFS p's) in that it does not build heights over Scandinavia.

In the other models, these heights, although they do not turn into a proper Scandi High, do play a role later on, because while they slowly move to Russia-Kazachstan, they provide a bit of blocking, forcing the trough to go South(East) into Europe. This also keeps the High further Northwest, creating better opportunities for cold Northerlies and Northeasterlies afterwards, as in the GEFS ensemble.

ECM has little to no heights over Scandi around 144h, so the trough moves into Russia and the High gets the opportunity to move East.
Let's hope ECM is wrong here and doesn't get support from the EPS.

The stronger Scandi heights we get earlier on, the better later on.

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

What we have now is colder weather compared to most of the winter so far - a few frosty nights and a sprinkling of snow for favoured areas but nothing long lasting.  In the models there is no sign of a significant cold spell setting up for the UK.  If an easterly QBO and just after a solar minimum can still deliver a winter that does not bring a significant cold spell to the UK, then one has to question if it is no longer realistically possible for a prolonged spell of cold weather to develop in the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

I think a spell of prolonged cold weather is still very possible in the uk but fewer and farther between unfortunately is the trend of the last 30 odd yrs.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
17 minutes ago, Valleyboy said:

All these negative comments are depressing to be honest, No sign of cold, don’t sugar coat it etc.  All these comments are based on the assumption that the charts are correct!  7 days prior to Christmas the charts were showing a cold Christmas, even the mainstream weather forecasters were going for at least a predominantly dry Christmas period and look how that turned out!  It couldn’t have been more wrong!  Charts should always be taken with a large pinch of salt.  Also remember that cold outbreaks tend to appear at relatively short notice.

Based on past history I'd suspect that the gfs/ec  won't be a million miles away. Granted things can change but that's generally when a cold forecast counts down from day 10-7. Looking at the nhp and subsequent synoptics the static high scenario drifting south is the favourite outcome imo

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
3 minutes ago, sundog said:

I think a spell of prolonged cold weather is still very possible in the uk but fewer and farther between unfortunately is the trend of the last 30 odd yrs.

For instance, last April was the frostiest April for a number of decades.......how many would have thought that would have been still possible? And it was followed by the coldest May for 25 years. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

Extended *mean* eps continues (and further improves by getting a little more amplitude) to show mid Atlantic ridging with low heights across Scandinavia and across Europe.  The extended eps are unlikely to be mild, if anything they should be colder than average.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I'm not sure how the second half of January is still up for grabs.

Your chart takes us to mid month, and if that chart is correct, we would be at least another 10 days away from proper cold.

So, no chance of cold until late January at the very earliest and zero sign of anything then too.

"No chance" and "zero sign of anything"?

GEFS must have missed a memo then. After day 10, most perturbations have the UK either in cold air, or on the cusp of it. Several very interesting profiles there by the way.
It goes out to 384h, which is only January 20. After that there are still 11 more days to come in this same month.

4jan12GEFS-384-H.thumb.png.c1bb67fe3a8e786a6d6efeab88a2ee48.png4jan12GEFS-384-H.thumb.png.ce2e958526cfb88da0b8c6951ce7b36f.png

From among them I could pick this tasty cherry p11:

2.thumb.png.eccbd403ad874deac6b0a2588cc1c75c.png

If that isn't proper cold well before late January, I don't know what is.

Across the output, we see a transfer of part of the vortex from Canada to the Russian Arctic. This opens a door to pattern changes that could end up in our favour in the final third of January.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

For instance, last April was the frostiest April for a number of decades.......how many would have thought that would have been still possible? And it was followed by the coldest May for 25 years. 

 

I don't doubt that cold spells will occur but the current model output shows nothing of the kind. Obv it will be cold at night under any high but its hardly unusual is it really. Also a cold spring isn't really what most are looking for I think

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1 hour ago, FENDER. said:

 Very disappointing.   Prime time mid winter, and the January looks like a write off

It is only the 4th of January and you are writing it off. Ridiculous! I'm old enough to remember winters that had similar set ups to the present one and when in just a few days the whole outlook changed.

The same can happen now. There is so much going on up there and so much uncertainty that trying to forecast the weather for more than a few days ahead is pointless.

Most bad winters that I remember, started in mid January onward.  Even the winter of 63 which I remember so well, ( hence username) although it initially started just before Christmas, the worst, as I remember where I live in Yorkshire, was in January and February. I also remember it coming without much warning and just after a period of quite mundane sort of weather.

Edited by Hull 1963
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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

We have not had a winter that could reasonably be described as cold or at least having significant cold spells since 2012-13.  I acknowledge that winters 2017-18 and 2020-21 were not especially mild and did have cold wintry episodes but both those winters were still average overall compared to 35+ years ago.  So if just after solar minimum and with an easterly QBO, not too strong a La Nina, we are still left with a winter that does not bring a significant cold spell to the UK, then something has changed markedly even since 2013.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Extended *mean* eps continues (and further improves by getting a little more amplitude) to show mid Atlantic ridging with low heights across Scandinavia and across Europe.  The extended eps are unlikely to be mild, if anything they should be colder than average.

Yes i must admit the mean at 240 looked like that High looked sharp enough to gain some latitude in the extended period, meaning there must be a decent sized cluster showing cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
6 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

"No chance" and "zero sign of anything"?

GEFS must have missed a memo then. After day 10, most perturbations have the UK either in cold air, or on the cusp of it. Several very interesting profiles there by the way.
It goes out to 384h, which is only January 20. After that there are still 11 more days to come in this same month.

4jan12GEFS-384-H.thumb.png.c1bb67fe3a8e786a6d6efeab88a2ee48.png4jan12GEFS-384-H.thumb.png.ce2e958526cfb88da0b8c6951ce7b36f.png

From among them I could pick this tasty cherry p11:

2.thumb.png.eccbd403ad874deac6b0a2588cc1c75c.png

If that isn't proper cold well before late January, I don't know what is.

Across the output, we see a transfer of part of the vortex from Canada to the Russian Arctic. This opens a door to pattern changes that could end up in our favour in the final third of January.

The GEFS?

Is that the GEFS, where every single ensemble member predicted a proper cold spell around Christmas, which spectacularly failed?

If you're going to try and prove a point, I wouldn't be using the GEFS for it.

In all my years on here I have seen a few predicted cold spells disappear, but I have never seen a predicted PV dominant spell disappear .

That is why I'm confident of no proper cold before month end.

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