Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[Cold Winter Night]

3 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Till the end there is a great majority with southwest or west winds. 

Yes, that is obvious looking at the clusters.
Like I wrote, cold, if any will come in January, does not arrive within those 15 days.

After day 10, it's about watching how large scale patterns set up in the Northern Hemisphere. Possible building blocks for later on.

[Gowon]

Better heights on the Icon for the end of next week than it's 0h run.

[Ali1977]

Day 8, you’d think the latest run may offer a quicker route to cold with the PV not so vigorous to our NW - but whether it will or not is an entirely different issue

[Ali1977]

Looks like that PV is trying to split at day 9, 5 days earlier than the previous run. 

 

The change in 1 day is notable, just proves how quick things could go from really bad to actually quite good. “Could”

Edited January 4, 2022 by Ali1977

[CoxR]

anyone know why the GFS ensemble diagrams aren't uploading atm?

[Battleground Snow]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Looks like that PV is trying to split at day 9, 5 days earlier than the previous run. 

 

The change in 1 day is notable, just proves how quick things could go from really bad to actually quite good. “Could”

Big ridge in the Pacific/Alaska too, might assist with the jet  downstream later on.

Edited January 4, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Big ridge in the Pacific/Alaska too, might assist with the jet  downstream later on.

Heights up here to meet it would be nice  It actually might do it this run 

Edited January 4, 2022 by Ali1977

[phil nw.]

Both GFS and UKMO at day 6 try to build a Scandi.high from Azores ridge but the strength of the vortex just brushes it aside.

After that the high takes up residence.I think we have to wait then to see if as some outputs suggest the high moves west or north west in time.A waiting game for now though.

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Heights up here to meet it would be nice

Yeah, if we can get that blob to stay over central Canada and not east we may have a chance

[Ali1977]

And there it goes, but it just can’t gain enough height to be much more than a toppler

Edited January 4, 2022 by Ali1977

[Staffmoorlands]

Fairly grim 12z so far as high pressure never really wants to leave the UK

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Fairly grim 12z so far as high pressure never really wants to leave the UK

I wouldn’t call this grim, and the picture you’ve posted is when the HP is smack over the U.K. which is something we all know needs to happen before possible cold shots !! 

[Staffmoorlands]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

I wouldn’t call this grim, and the picture you’ve posted is when the HP is smack over the U.K. which is something we all know needs to happen before possible cold shots !! 

Your chart is at 306hrs - but appreciate it may lead to cold

[Ali1977]

Heights maybe trying to push north again, deep FI obviously!! 

[Froze were the Days]

12 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Fairly grim 12z so far as high pressure never really wants to leave the UK

But on a positive note dry but on a negative no doubt cloudy!...if there is no alternative for the foreseeable I'd rather have this than a raging jet stream and rainy day after rainy day - not much to go by I know!

[damianslaw]

Immediate timeframe a wintry outlook if you describe frost as wintry..  and I do. Many should see an air frost tonight and more notably so tomorrow. There is snow in the forecast for some northern areas Thursday and Friday after a cold day tomorrow.

The cold isn't set to last though.. pushed away by the Atlantic by the weekend. Thereafter the models all show heights once again building in from the azores.. but not quite in the same place as they did end December. Mild yes, exceptional mild not so.. longer term, key question where will they end up.. my thought possibly west to allow some colder conditions from the north... in time...

Edited January 4, 2022 by damianslaw

[tesaro]

I hope this forecast High isn’t like the one we had pre Xmas. Constant Drizzle ? It was probably the wettest High I remember?

[Summer Snow]

31 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Fairly grim 12z so far as high pressure never really wants to leave the UK

I remember GFS was also showing similar charts as high pressure started to  build in third week of December - showing HP meandering around our shores right out to 15 days....before New signal was picked up soon after and HP ridged north almost delivering a potent cold spell, albeit some places did see some snow around Christmas time.....not beyond possible that a similar signal will emerge soon but with hopefully a better outcome for decent cold spell to follow.....second bite of the cherry and all that .....

[Ali1977]

Control similar to the Op at day 10, can’t see much promise just yet but it’s a trend that could improve if rising heights strengthen!! Nothing on the METO Long range to suggest it though, topplers looking the form horse at best. 

Edited January 4, 2022 by Ali1977

[Kasim Awan]

I like the look of the gfs / gem at 240h.

[Staffmoorlands]

18 minutes ago, tesaro said:

I hope this forecast High isn’t like the one we had pre Xmas. Constant Drizzle ? It was probably the wettest High I remember?

It does look cloudy but with some sunny breaks. Temperatures around 9 to 12c for most of England which is ideal for tidying up the garden or walking the dog

[I remember Atlantic 252]

21 minutes ago, tesaro said:

I hope this forecast High isn’t like the one we had pre Xmas. Constant Drizzle ? It was probably the wettest High I remember?

Hoping there is a high! still in FI, and settled weather tends to downgrade

[FENDER.]

 Very disappointing.   Prime time mid winter, and the January looks like a write off

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,very cold tonight with a hard frost,snow showers north and south on Friday looking at 

fax charts.Looking further ahead a possible long stretch of dry weather for January not a certainty 

where the high will sit,could still be in a favourable position if it remains to the west of U.K. single 

figures regarding temperatures remain a strong bet.

[Nick2373]

6 minutes ago, FENDER. said:

 Very disappointing.   Prime time mid winter, and the January looks like a write off

04th Jan and your Already writing it off?? How bizarre just like the UK weather.