Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[Community Team]

A fresh thread as we all start to head back to real life after the Christmas and New Year break.

This is still a 'hunt for cold' thread, which means some extra chat is ok but the basis of it still needs to be model related discussion. Please also bear in mind that 'extra chat' isn't a metaphor for 'act like an idiot' - so for the minority of people that are acting in that way, please stop before you find you can't post on here.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly

Please report posts you think break these guidelines, and don't respond to them.

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If you want to go for full on moans, ramps and winter based chat with little to no model discussion, please continue to use the the winter chat thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96442-winter-2021-22-moans-and-ramps-thread/?do=getNewComment

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If you want a slightly slower pace of discussion, or don't specifically want to be involved in the hunt for cold, please head over to the slower paced model discussion:
 https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96449-short-range-model-discussion-december-2021-onwards/?do=getNewComment
(This thread was the short range model discussion). 

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You're welcome to cross-post into each of model threads, if you have a  post which you think would work well for both. 

Thank you, and happy cold hunting!

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,a cold week in prospect before this awaited possible pattern change with high pressure 

taking over.At present the favourable place is either just to the west or over the U.K. some adjustments 

will I’m sure still be made.Meanwhile Gefs ensembles ie control along with several ensembles heading south

into minus 10 territory after the 15 th,possible re-adjusting of high pressure.

[Lukesluckybunch]

8 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Morning all,a cold week in prospect before this awaited possible pattern change with high pressure 

taking over.At present the favourable place is either just to the west or over the U.K. some adjustments 

will I’m sure still be made.Meanwhile Gefs ensembles ie control along with several ensembles heading south

into minus 10 territory after the 15 th,possible re-adjusting of high pressure.

its always way out in model output the sense of anything colder,even when the high pressure moves in there is currently no sign of it moving northward into a more favourable position for cold...at current its forecast to be over the uk or even to the south,so most likely quite mild 10/11c i would guess.thats the current situation of course all of this can change!

[Turnedoutniceagain]

METO following the GFS for Friday 

[Lukesluckybunch]

looking a bit interesting here at 144 better heights over scandi..doubt it will lead to anything,but lets wait and see

[Kasim Awan]

5 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

looking a bit interesting here at 144 better heights over scandi..doubt it will lead to anything,but lets wait and see

No, those Scandi height rises will not lead to anything for the uk within the 144-192h timeframe, if anything they increase temps here.

[Ali1977]

This is just the transitioning phase for the PV heading to Russia, looks like a coldies worst nightmare but it’s something that needs to happen if we have a chance later in Jan I think. 

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This is just the transitioning phase for the PV heading to Russia, looks like a coldies worst nightmare but it’s something that needs to happen if we have a chance later in Jan I think. 

That would still be chilly at worse I would have thought..?

[legritter]

Hi gang ,I'm still in the hunt for cold snow ,plenty of time left  ,nail biting times ahead but who knows whats ahead for us hungry snow hunter s ,bring it on gang ,happy new year to you all .

[Lukesluckybunch]

its getting tiresome the pattern is so very flat..no sign of any height rises the PV is way too strong here!

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

That would still be chilly at worse I would have thought..?

barely even chilly the continent isnt even cold,a nice mild southerly setting up at 252h couldnt be any worse

Edited January 4, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
adding text

[mountain shadow]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This is just the transitioning phase for the PV heading to Russia, looks like a coldies worst nightmare but it’s something that needs to happen if we have a chance later in Jan I think. 

I doubt we would see the whole PV transfer over though.  If even a tiny bit of PV remains in NE Canada it will still scupper proper height rises.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

I doubt we would see the whole PV transfer over though.  If even a tiny bit of PV remains in NE Canada it will still scupper proper height rises.

the best we can hope for is a split vortex,heights going through the middle up towards the pole

[Penrith Snow]

This winters tendancy for intense high pressure cells to establish themselves over Iberia and Biscay (two so far and one on the way) remind me very much of winters 1988/89 and 1997/98. Such synoptics bring repeated spells of exceptionally mild weather with just the briefest of colder conditions between each cell growing and contracting.

These really are Winter Killer charts, no amount of hope casting can change that.

Andy

[georgiedre]

Looks like a lot of high pressure out in the Atlantic and lower heights to our ne might be a theme.  Hopefully this will carry on and provide a few northerly outbreaks by the 15th ish

[Battleground Snow]

Another "almost" FI coming up,

Still just looking for trends post day 10 atm

Edited January 4, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Another "almost" FI coming up,

Still just looking for trends post day 10 atm

yep exactly 10 day chasing,very frustrating..just for fun at 336 we are the mildest in whole of europe.couldnt make that up really!

Edited January 4, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
adding text

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

yep exactly 10 day chasing,very frustrating

Moving most of the vortex to Russia will certainly raise blocking opportunities in our locale, but even that might not verify at day 11, and also any residual pieces over greenland will make it hard for a push North.

[MP-R]

10 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Moving most of the vortex to Russia will certainly raise blocking opportunities in our locale, but even that might not verify at day 11, and also any residual pieces over greenland will make it hard for a push North.

It's a shame that these blocking highs in situ tend to follow mild flows. If only we could get one following the current northerly, we'd trap a load of cold and clear air over the country and at least deliver a largely sunny and frosty spell. Even January 2020 managed that!

[Chesil View]

From a purely in my back yard point of view. At least the suggested rolling high scenario across the output will keep it dry down here in the south.

Working outdoors and living down a track make mild wet muck in winter particularly objectionable.

Mild and dry I,ll happily take if it's not going  to be cold and snowy.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

METO following the GFS for Friday 

You sure they are actually following GFS or does their own in house model (UKV) suggest this outcome?

[Chris Smith]

That next low is set to be a beast - 929mb on the FAX chart.

[minus10]

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

It's a shame that these blocking highs in situ tend to follow mild flows. If only we could get one following the current northerly, we'd trap a load of cold and clear air over the country and at least deliver a largely sunny and frosty spell. Even January 2020 managed that!

Exactly, in fact the low signalled to the west on this run does just that but unfortunately the wrap around of milder air displaces the cold in time.

Initial high just slightly further north this time though,

Maybe some hope.....

 Or maybe just hopecasting.... 

[Cold Winter Night]

The EPS regime chart this morning shows how the ensemble moves through the central circle first. That means there is no pronounced regime from day 4-8. Westerlies, but not NAO+.
Coming from a weak BLO- regime at T+0h, towards 192h it is heading for BLO+, associated with heights near the UK, Northwest and Northern Europe.

The clusters 192h-240h show the same, a strong positive height anomaly over the North sea. The associated influx of Southwesterly mild air raises temperatures day 6-9.

The move of the tPV core from West to East is still signalled on the clusters 264h-360h.
More heights to the North. Cluster 1 shows a bit of a split, as on GEFS perturbations, cluster 2 is a repeat pattern, cluster 3 is the best for coldies, with Northern heights rises and associated lower heights over Europe.

Cold does not arrive in the UK or Holland within this timeframe, but there is certainly a lot of potential later on.
Important building blocks for the second half of January.

Many GEFS perturbations show cold arriving between January 15 and 20 and there is a large part of January still to come after that.
Writing off January with this signal for a pattern change is silly, based on emotions rather than model output.

Long fetch Southwesterlies under a NAO+ regime are nowhere in the output right now.

But remember: this is interesting to follow, not a promised certainty of cold and snow.

[sebastiaan1973]

2 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

The EPS regime chart this morning shows how the ensemble moves through the central circle first. That means there is no pronounced regime from day 4-8. Westerlies, but not NAO+.
Coming from a weak BLO- regime at T+0h, towards 192h it is heading for BLO+, associated with heights near the UK, Northwest and Northern Europe.

The clusters 192h-240h show the same, a strong positive height anomaly over the North sea. The associated influx of Southwesterly mild air raises temperatures day 6-9.

The move of the tPV core from West to East is still signalled on the clusters 264h-360h.
More heights to the North. Cluster 1 shows a bit of a split, as on GEFS perturbations, cluster 2 is a repeat pattern, cluster 3 is the best for coldies, with Northern heights rises and associated lower heights over Europe.

Cold does not arrive in the UK or Holland within this timeframe, but there is certainly a lot of potential later on.
Important building blocks for the second half of January.

Many GEFS perturbations show cold arriving between January 15 and 20 and there is a large part of January still to come after that.
Writing off January with this signal for a pattern change is silly, based on emotions rather than model output.

Long fetch Southwesterlies under a NAO+ regime are nowhere in the output right now.

But remember: this is interesting to follow, not a promised certainty of cold and snow.

Till the end there is a great majority with southwest or west winds.