2022 tornado events, reports and chat

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Eagle Eye]

Looks like a hail spike that and some rotation as well, the line behind starting to look interesting 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Getting a really worrying feeling for tomorrow and Tuesday

[Eagle Eye]

1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Getting a really worrying feeling for tomorrow and Tuesday

Yep me too, seems like the SPC are mainly taking the NAM in, when plotting the NAM using almost every single useful part of the model, the target areas for a chase would be in the exact middle of the forecasts whereas the HRRR hangs back slightly further with the strongest of the Supercell's for Monday and so they are likely to be even stronger being further away from the mass in-front of them. I feel like, once the HRRR can start to be taken into contention properly (on the 0Z run, then the 6Z and all further hourly updates after that) we may see a moderate risk on the western side of the enhanced risk but that is if the HRRR hanging back further is a trend or not. For Tuesday, once again the NAM is the model seemingly mostly taken in with the HRRR once again hanging further back right on the western edge of the moderate risk for the strongest of the storms. So for me at least, I do think further upgrades are possible, only if the NAM trends towards the HRRR though (or the opposite, for Monday at least). Whereas for Tuesday, I'm not sure about a high risk, since it's so rare but extending the moderate risk on the western side seems to be a possibility and once again depending on the trending of the models, on the northern side as well.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 next HRRR run just out that's a sounding from this one I circled  has a whole bunch of supercells (probably plenty with tors) and a 2nd round following possibly messier and more linear

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Of course its at the top end of outbreak events and would take something VERY serious to get near that but there's a little feeling of 27th April 2011 about tomorrow. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Eagle Eye]

Moderate risk and 15% issued, looking very strong this outbreak.

Also, think I should do more combining if models because using the combinations of the strongest areas of the warnings was able to get almost exactly where the moderate is for today (although a rough sketch), interested to see what happens with tomorrow's risk as well that's also shaded in on the picture. Do any of you think this is a fluke or whether I should keep doing this time get an idea of where the highest risks are for potential future storm chases and my unofficial risk maps that I want to do when I have the tim?

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Eagle Eye]

Some livestreams and stuff to watch later for information and chasing
From 8PM

From 8:30 PM

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Eagle Eye]

3 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Confirmed by the local fire department to be a rain wrapped tornado

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

13 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Confirmed by the local fire department to be a rain wrapped tornado

If that's the first tornado and its already that level of damage, my worries about this multi day event were warranted  

 

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

If that's the first tornado and its already that level of damage, my worries about this multi day event were warranted  

 

1 injury already been reported, a head trauma

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

Here's the tornado as seen on the news 9 live stream.

And the damage to the school in Jacksboro 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Live News Stream: Watch FOX 7 Austin

WWW.FOX7AUSTIN.COM

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Stream local news and weather live from FOX 7 Austin. Plus watch LiveNow, FOX SOUL, and more exclusive coverage from around the country.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

OH MYYY Jeff Piotrowski has it on his stream absolute huge wedge