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Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021


Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please remember this is a model based discussion - some chat is ok, but a weather model related theme should run throughout.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly

For a less frenetic look at the models head over to the alternate model discussion

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
31 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Somewhat contradictory.....

 

They mention it becoming colder as we move into January though and the 10 day forecast only goes to the 2nd.  Wonder what the EC46 will show later?  I have a hunch it will be zonal!

 

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, johncam said:

Your right mate sad to say , could be a long wait till next chance of cold but hey its only weather , everyone have a great Xmas  and peaceful new year 

Cheers 

John 

Has anyone got the latest CFS for January . . . 2023!:drunk-emoji: Merry Xmas, all!

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
18 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

oh really,this lastest ECM is very mobile no sign of any northern blocking

Actually that’s got a lot of potential, if nothing else. That could ridge in behind the system travelling through southern Greenland and link with the emerging Arctic heights. That’s the sort of chart that could lead to a spell cold just a few days later.

A93B69CE-EBDF-43AC-8641-C303947A5E2D.thumb.jpeg.f7e13c00d8f23c7e8f744659b5f2a623.jpeg

Obviously it’s the ECM at D10, so it’s largely irrelevant but trends and potential is all we’ve got for a bit.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
18 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Has anyone got the latest CFS for January . . . 2023!:drunk-emoji: Merry Xmas, all!

Good old CFS,...it sounds like a sofa outlet

and as for Jan 2023 i will ask...

mystic-meg-mystic.thumb.gif.fc9969aa66da989809af11d4cc0bbbba.gif

Merry Christmas to you too Pete

talking of the CFS,...it has this for 11 Jan

cfsnh-0-492.thumb.png.94853da5bebaa317aa2dd07e0dce1bf9.pngcfsnh-1-492.thumb.png.05120bb2c9c91cd9e2910f78e9529359.png

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
18 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

ECM really is a terrible run out to 192h,not a sign of anything cool,let alone cold!,does anyone have any feelings looking at the models when we may get a decent cold spell? also to note a lot of the winter forecasts were going colder then average...TWO the weather outlook ,net weather and gavs weather vids.were all predicting colder then average

Well, there is no strong, organised tPV around Greenland, there are heights in the Arctic and several ridging attempts.

Those do not deliver within 10 days in this run, but in GEFS you can see on a couple of members how a little tweak here and there can quickly turn the tables. As ugly as the output may appear at the surface, the dreaded "potential" is present.

There are certainly roads to cold left.
And those winter forecasts are exactly that, winter forecasts. We have just started, with almost 2.5 months of it still ahead.

"As the day lengthens, so the cold strengthens," is an old proverb, that exists both in English and in Dutch.
Check out December 23 on the meteociel NOAA archives for many severe winters of the past century. Many of those charts would have emptied this forum just like today's output, I think!

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Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
7 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Well, there is no strong, organised tPV around Greenland, there are heights in the Arctic and several ridging attempts.

Those do not deliver within 10 days in this run, but in GEFS you can see on a couple of members how a little tweak here and there can quickly turn the tables. As ugly as the output may appear at the surface, the dreaded "potential" is present.

There are certainly roads to cold left.
And those winter forecasts are exactly that, winter forecasts. We have just started, with almost 2.5 months of it still ahead.

"As the day lengthens, so the cold strengthens," is an old proverb, that exists both in English and in Dutch.
Check out December 23 on the meteociel NOAA archives for many severe winters of the past century. Many of those charts would have emptied this forum just like today's output, I think!

as good as the beast from the east was back in 2018..that arived a back of the february into early march imagine if it arrived late january into early february things would have been even more severe.

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
48 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

oh really,this lastest ECM is very mobile no sign of any northern blocking

The Stratosphere is what to look at for a SSW, I did only say the potential. This has beeen mentioned a few times answering even though it's at the end of runs for now it might start getting closer as it did earlier this year, I am only going by what others said but I'm pretty sure I've seen a few mods and other professionals mention the chance for it to happen 

Edited by Eagle Eye
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Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.

What today's FI output still has, is an unusual pattern in the Arctic. It has that in common with good winters, so that's where the hope of many still stems from.

Here is Christmas Day for four years, would you like them?

1.thumb.png.843fb1f8e5a1eca7e5afba9eb01541ec.png2.thumb.png.5109af8b88434aec28cad0d3e5ed1a75.png

3.thumb.png.a227679288ba15c8b90aa6cd714c1abf.png4.thumb.png.5a6be0117366cc976ba346b0d2a1e40c.png

Well, number 3 looks good! you might say, but that ridge turned into a UK high (All the cold goes to Turkey!). I could hear the moaning.

Yet these are the Christmas Day charts for the numbers 9, 6, 3 and 1 on the list of most severe winters in Holland since 1901.
They all started delivering their best goods later on.

 

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Posted
  • Location: North of Steyning - West Sussex - some 10 miles south of Horsham
  • Location: North of Steyning - West Sussex - some 10 miles south of Horsham

First post for a long time. It was snowy then. But I have been lurking a lot in recent weeks. Ah! Anyway, tonight at 9 on bbc 4 - the 1962-63 winter.  

Edited by Come rain snow or shine
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Posted
  • Location: Port of Ness,Isle of Lewis.
  • Location: Port of Ness,Isle of Lewis.
4 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

What today's FI output still has, is an unusual pattern in the Arctic. It has that in common with good winters, so that's where the hope of many still stems from.

Here is Christmas Day for four years, would you like them?

1.thumb.png.843fb1f8e5a1eca7e5afba9eb01541ec.png2.thumb.png.5109af8b88434aec28cad0d3e5ed1a75.png

3.thumb.png.a227679288ba15c8b90aa6cd714c1abf.png4.thumb.png.5a6be0117366cc976ba346b0d2a1e40c.png

Well, number 3 looks good! you might say, but that ridge turned into a UK high (All the cold goes to Turkey!). I could hear the moaning.

Yet these are the Christmas Day charts for the numbers 9, 6, 3 and 1 on the list of most severe winters in Holland since 1901.
They all started delivering their best goods later on.

 

As much as I like looking at these charts from years before computer models were invented,I ask how does anyone know what the pressure,synoptics and depths were in 1901? Are they crude extrapolation?

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
2 minutes ago, Come rain snow or shine said:

 Ah! Anyway, tonight at 9 on bbc 4 - the 1962-63 winter.  

Are they trying to rub it in ?I'm not sure we're going to repeat that anytime soon and I was nearly 50 years from being alive but even I know that was pretty special 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Are they trying to rub it in ?I'm not sure we're going to repeat that anytime soon and I was nearly 50 years from being alive but even I know that was pretty special 

It is actually a very good documentary, I’ve seen it before.  Just makes you wonder when we wish for a snowy spell…1/100 year events do happen, and my view is that they still can…

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Evening all

Not much in this evening's charts to inspire fans of cold it would seem but as others have said, it's early days.

The question has to be as it often is - will event sin the stratosphere give us some options? Clearly, the PV is under plenty of pressure it would seem right into the New Year at 10HPA and I do idly wonder whether one of the reasons we've been scuppered has been a classic Wave 1 displacement which has kicked too much energy back over to the Canadian side. 

Anyway, whatever and however, have a wonderful Christmas.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ponteland
  • Location: Ponteland

The winter of 62-63 remains fresh in my memory ,I was mid twenties so adult or not I enjoyed the sledging. I still hav e the D.W.R for the main 3 winter month s And still find myself saying if only.

Enough reminiscing , let me wish all members a very merry Christmas and a happy snowy new year.

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Posted
  • Location: North of Steyning - West Sussex - some 10 miles south of Horsham
  • Location: North of Steyning - West Sussex - some 10 miles south of Horsham
3 minutes ago, Rollo said:

The winter of 62-63 remains fresh in my memory ,I was mid twenties so adult or not I enjoyed the sledging. I still hav e the D.W.R for the main 3 winter month s And still find myself saying if only.

Enough reminiscing , let me wish all members a very merry Christmas and a happy snowy new year.

You're more than 10 years older than me, but I remember it - and chillblains on some of my fingers - well. The "Big Freeze" went on and on.   And on.  We had no central heating - just one coal fire and one gas fire. 

Edited by Come rain snow or shine
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Posted
  • Location: Garforth, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Snow, Thunder
  • Location: Garforth, Leeds 86m asl

Just to point out re: met office extended forecast, it's my understanding that the wording of the day 16-30 only changes on a Tuesday and Friday so I expect a massive downgrade on that tomorrow based on the, let's be honest, horrendous model output we are now seeing! 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

What day did the snow start on the 62/63 winter?

 

Going to take a break until the 27th. Have a fantastic Christmas all.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
16 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Well EC 46 suggesting positive temp anomalies all of January,

Luckily it never gets anything right

20211223200311-bd43a23eda30ddc283fff67a825afd49f227a6e8.png

20211223200319-2cbeac4d9937683d0b862fe88be2e9dacb10e415.png

20211223200333-d50d641572416b240245d388bbf0b9397f24d39b.png

It’ll get mild right because of the law of sod.

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Posted
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
18 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Well EC 46 suggesting positive temp anomalies all of January,

Luckily it never gets anything right

20211223200311-bd43a23eda30ddc283fff67a825afd49f227a6e8.png

20211223200319-2cbeac4d9937683d0b862fe88be2e9dacb10e415.png

20211223200333-d50d641572416b240245d388bbf0b9397f24d39b.png

After the "bin it" approach over the last week or so, I'd suggest not writing the possibility off.

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Posted
  • Location: North of Steyning - West Sussex - some 10 miles south of Horsham
  • Location: North of Steyning - West Sussex - some 10 miles south of Horsham
2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

What day did the snow start on the 62/63 winter?

 

 

In Peterborough - Boxing Day, I'm pretty sure.  There may have been a light snow shower early xmas day... at maybe 7.30 a.m. 

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Posted
  • Location: North of Steyning - West Sussex - some 10 miles south of Horsham
  • Location: North of Steyning - West Sussex - some 10 miles south of Horsham

Clickable/expandable thumbnail charts for December 1962. 

WWW.MIKETT.PLUS.COM

 

Edited by Come rain snow or shine
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