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SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion December 2021 on


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Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow - Frost - A beach in the Med
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL

    Another lovely day of drizzle on the drive in. Quite mild though for the time of year. Weekend was the same but pretty much missed most of it after a reaction to my booster jab. Did manage to get the dogs out to a very murky Grafham Water though20211218_103116.thumb.jpg.7ceee7324fdd431e2568fd9314c438b7.jpg

    20211218_102206.jpg

    Edited by Sparky68
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    Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow - Frost - A beach in the Med
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
    1 hour ago, Paul said:

    A fresh thread for the new group, and plenty to be chatting about as we head towards Christmas. 🎄

    Difficult to navigate to from the phone Paul

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)

    Was very foggy yesterday, forgot camera cloth so shots are full of camera spots and overall wet. Just cleaned the sensor today!

    DSC_0342.thumb.JPG.8fba19ac6c244397dccfa4c0a3280fa4.JPGDSC_0367.thumb.JPG.82435a53bc496c9b8988329aeb3b895f.JPGDSC_0393.thumb.JPG.bf5ff7bd71e50266262279c0c6c8b98a.JPGDSC_0396.thumb.JPG.bb9d5d43eb17c21c0fe3af3aa7f09aa2.JPG

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Another slow day in terms of the weather. I was hopeful going to work as you could see the moon through the thinning areas of low cloud. However apart from a few very small breaks it has been cloudy and dull again.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
    2 hours ago, Sparky68 said:

    Difficult to navigate to from the phone Paul

    Once you join the group, it'll be the second to top section on the forum front page (below the recent posts bit). 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

    I'll be glad when this anticyclone has done one. Nothing more boring than being stuck under a cloudy high at this time of year. Dull, grey, windless nothingness.

    Satellite 13.10: 656290023_Satellite20Dec13_10.thumb.jpg.caa107ad932926a91404c1ce3901b701.jpg

    Just as well I took a look at @TomSE12 Tom's panto which has cheered me up, particularly this very funny post:

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Time for todays 12z review. 

    GFS

    image.thumb.png.2bb67c831429fd56cc51624362a130fa.png

    There will be outbreaks of rain to start the day. These will tend to fade as the day progresses, it might turn wintry later on but the jury is out on this one. Temperatures reach 7/8C but fall away during the afternoon as a cold SE wind develops and cold air arrives from the north. A chance of snow on Boxing day from the next weather front.

    UKMO

    image.thumb.png.fde25c56141c349e7e555af2ae86998b.png

    This run probably has a band of rain straddling the region. This will likely get squeezed southwards and like the GFS there is a chance of this turning wintry as it clears. Chance of showers over East Anglia and always the threat of something more persistent along the south coast for Boxing day. Temperatures probably 5/6C to start but falling through the day.

    GEM

    image.thumb.png.53f2c6bb2b449d4dab8c4d200b85d653.png

    Similar to the UKMO, outbreaks of rain that might turn wintry later in the day. 8C in the south for a time, but again falling as the afternoon progresses.

    image.thumb.png.a47c8596d0ad07256bb1ee425abc646d.png

    A milder solution with outbreaks of rain throughout the day. With a more southerly and Atlantic component to the winds, temperatures could reach double figures in the south. Probably high single figures across East Anglia.

     

    Overall - Christmas day still looks pretty wet, the GFS probably quickest to squeeze out any precipitation and all but the ECM offer the chance of a few flakes of snow towards the evening. Still the uncertainty in the output is unusually high, so prepare for more changes.

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    Posted
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl

    I was going to ask what the prognosis was, but seeing as the last post was 4hrs ago, I think I have the answer lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow - Frost - A beach in the Med
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL

    4c on the drive in , it's getting there. Hopefully that's the end of this murky rubbish.

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    Posted
  • Location: colchester,essex
  • Weather Preferences: Very Hot,Very cold.scared of thunder and lightning.
  • Location: colchester,essex
    11 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

    4c on the drive in , it's getting there. Hopefully that's the end of this murky rubbish.

    I have noticed the temps being colder than on the  forecasts lately...

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    Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow - Frost - A beach in the Med
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
    1 hour ago, Floatylight said:

    I have noticed the temps being colder than on the  forecasts lately...

    It seems a lot of these forecasts are wet a finger and stick it in the air currently!

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
    22 hours ago, Sparky68 said:

    Difficult to navigate to from the phone Paul

    Especially with this fog Paul ..can't see a hand in front me..let alone the thread and group   ..lol but cloud has broken now ..what a few bleak  cold miserable and seasonal I guess  days 

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    Posted
  • Location: colchester,essex
  • Weather Preferences: Very Hot,Very cold.scared of thunder and lightning.
  • Location: colchester,essex

    Be my luck it's snows 12am and I miss out on My £60 bet!

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    Posted
  • Location: Icklesham, near Rye East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Love hot sunshine and cold snowy weather
  • Location: Icklesham, near Rye East Sussex

    Some welcome sunshine and blue skies to lift the spirits today, it has felt pretty grim under very overcast skies the last few days. Up in north Bedfordshire for Christmas, hoping it will be cold, crisp and dry in readiness for a good walk to build up the appetite for our 3 bird roast… 🤪🤪

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

    Well it is much colder today, for hubs to say he could feel the chill taking the bin out it's cold.

    Still not excited about any snow in beddy, the only place to get a 95% of thunder and we get drizzle 😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    10 minutes ago, Dami said:

    Well it is much colder today, for hubs to say he could feel the chill taking the bin out it's cold.

    Still not excited about any snow in beddy, the only place to get a 95% of thunder and we get drizzle 😂

    Quite a few near you seem to get loads, Bedford must be one of the really unlucky places

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
    33 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

    Quite a few near you seem to get loads, Bedford must be one of the really unlucky places

    Well i am probably not 100% correct, not this year as much but in years gone by storms have missed my locale by a few miles( so i can hear thunder etc) Most storms seem to either start their journey over me or break up. However as i love cloud porn i see my fair share😂 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Icklesham, near Rye East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Love hot sunshine and cold snowy weather
  • Location: Icklesham, near Rye East Sussex
    1 minute ago, RJBingham said:

    I'll just leave this here

     

    whitechristmas.jpg

    😃😃😆😍

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
    9 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

    I'll just leave this here

     

    whitechristmas.jpg

    It's the dream for sure. Too many models still chopping and changing, but it's lovely to see.

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Got this of the sunset earlier, now wished I'd had been able to spend more time as it looks like it was seconds away from being stunning, certainly was behind the trees as I on my way from the cinema
    image.thumb.png.47e049dfe4f0c31a64e8b338a7754b28.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Here we go again, now getting into the reliable.... but its Christmas so the models are still all over the shot...

    GFS

    image.thumb.png.acfc52bce1df6642819e972d0de0b6e5.png   image.thumb.png.1f77236ddb50787c6c79e9cd0a294b16.png

    A fairly stiff east to south east wind. There will be a band of rain that has pushed north east which reaches the north of the region during the morning. This then retreats southwards during the afternoon and importantly, it turns to snow as it moves south. Anywhere north of London I suspect has a chance here. Temperatures start generally around 7-8C, but fall away dramatically as the cold air pushes in.

    UKMO

    image.thumb.png.04aa07daf656ff673caf4dbedc3beac7.png   image.thumb.png.881a959171210819de8c48ef51fd3a97.png

    Similar surface conditions to the GFS, though the drop in temperatures will probably be less pronounced. The rain might turn wintry in the north of the region during the afternoon. Temperatures again probably 7-10C but falling as the colder air digs in.

    GEM

    image.thumb.png.2a8509648ad61e3a29e043ef7f2e5d80.png   image.thumb.png.7cea478963f326caec2e8a71914b9208.png

    Again similar, rain pushing as far as the north Midlands before retreating southwards during the afternoon. Again some wintry precipitation is possible on the northern flank. Temperatures again 10C towards the south coast, but falling to low single figures in the north and this spreads south during the afternoon.

    Arpege

    image.thumb.png.04b0983382e743ea70e392cf67d42834.png   image.thumb.png.d32e71aa0376d771ad6e461266de40d3.png

    More of a southerly component to the winds, again there is rain around, though on this run it stays as rain. Temperatures start at 6-9C, but all away during the afternoon.

    ECM

    image.thumb.png.e1ec7fb24808a3cdaf6486cee3215bbf.png   image.thumb.png.2a5e8cde5808d0cda569cf6ba740e208.png

    The ECM still probably the mildest, but still you would expect temperatures to fall as a south easterly wind picks up. Maybe 10C in the south and this actually being sustains. 7C in the north and falling during the afternoon.

    Conclusion - It is a complicated set up, we are seeing the models produce solutions that see low pressure approach at a better angle, however they are tending to drag less cold air around the northern flank. Because of this we are struggling to get the cold air over Scandinavia to properly push in (This is what we need to get snow to low levels widely). Worth noting that many of these models flirt with the idea of bringing the front back northwards again on Boxing day, this will need to be watched as this might be more favourable for snow. However I would not write off a white Christmas just yet.

    image.png

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