Countdown to Christmas with Sammy Snowman - a SE Regional Special

[Tom Quintavalle]

Hi all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

First of all, Malcolm [Blessed Weather] and Paul have both kindly given me the go-ahead to repeat my item of last December. That being, a light hearted look at the likely/unlikely prospects of a White Christmas, for the South East Region. I will be presenting this item in Pantomime form, and seen through the eyes of your Narrator/Synoptic Analyst, Sammy Snowman.

The Panto will be entitled - COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN [Sammy and Samantha get hitched, in Finland].

Some of you may recall Sammy's adventures, last December but for those that donn't and to give a quick recap of the events, that took place last Christmas, I'll give a fairly brief description of those events.

Sammy Snowman and his Girlfriend, Samantha Snowwoman, spent  Christmas last Year, in the Ski Resort of Levi, in Finnish Lapland. During a romantic Sleigh Ride, Sammy popped the question to Samantha, who unhesitatingly accepted his proposal.

Whilst in Finland, as Chairman of U.S.D.A.W. [Union of Snowmen Distributed Around the World], negotiated a BRR-EXIT deal, for a split from the E.U.S. [European Union of Snowmen].

Once this deal had been done and dusted, along with tens of thousands of Snowmen around the Northern Hemisphere, Sammy and Samantha sacrificed themselves, in a S.S.W. [Sudden Snowman Warming], in an attempt to deliver some cold and snowy Weather, to their locations.

Unfortunately, the U.K., didn't reap much benefit from this selfless act.

Eventually, Sammy and Samantha made it back to the U.K., and regenerating "Dr Who-like", spent the rest of last Winter, Spring and Summer, snuggled up in a Chest Freezer -   - 

in Sammy's Ice House 

at Snowdown, just North of Dover.

To help pay for the Wedding/Honeymoon in Finland, Sammy being quite the Entrpreneur, decided to lease out some of his Families old Chest Freezers, to the Government, for storing Coronavirus Vaccines.

Tragedy struck a few Weeks ago though. Sammy was hosting an Ice Cream Party for Greta Thunberg and some Climate Change activists, who were stopping off at Sammy's house, on their way home from the COP26 Conference.

His Ice House, became the latest victim of climate change, when it started to melt, ironically in full view of Miss Thunberg.

This forced Sammy and his Fiancee to relocate to his Parents Ice House, at Snowshill, high in the Gloucestershire Cotswolds.

Later on Today, Sammy will return and introduce the full Cast [including Friends and Enemies] ,for his South East Regional Christmas Pantomime.  

Regards,

Sammy Snowman  

Edited December 9, 2021 by Blessed Weather

[Tom Quintavalle]

Sammy Snowman would now like to introduce the Cast, of his S. E. Regional Pantomime, beginning with his Bride to be, and Family.

NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME

COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN

       [Sammy and Samantha get hitched, in Finland]

                                        CAST

                              WEDDING PARTY

SAMMY SNOWMAN – Narrator, Synoptic Analyst and Bridegroom.

SAMANTHA SNOWWOMAN – Bride.

You will probably be aware that Samantha has shed a few kilos of frozen Snow, in time for her Wedding.

SALLY SNOWWOMEN - Sammy's rather attractive younger Sister, and chief Bridesmaid:

SOLOMON SNOWMAN – Father of Sammy.

SHARON SNOWWOMAN – Mother of Sammy.  

    

Samantha would like to apologise but her Parents are still very worried about the Pandemic, and are too nervous to travel to Finland but will be attending a private Registry Office Ceremony, once Sammy and Samantha return to the U.K.

When Sammy returns, he will introduce you to his friends and allies, in the Pantomime Cast.

Regards,

Sammy Snowman 

Edited December 6, 2021 by TomSE12

[Tom Quintavalle]

Sammy Snowman, would now like to introduce his allies and friends, in his Winter's Take, with a little description of their role, in the Panto, where necessary.

    NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME

COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN

       [Sammy and Samantha get hitched, in Finland]

                                          CAST

                              ALLIES [Moreorless]

BEAST FROM THE EAST – Polar Continental spell. Won awards for his performance in late February 2018:

BERDY THE RUSSIAN BEAR – Siberian Anticyclone. Can prove a hindrance if aligned unfavourably:

DWARF FROM THE NORTH – All too temporary, Arctic blast:

GENOVESE MO – Genoa Low. Mafia style gangster, whose role is to eradicate Eunice the Euro Slug/Barbara the Bartlett High, and send her to sleep wid da fishes, at the same time supporting Scandy Mandy, by propping her up:

GRETA THE GREENIE – Greenland Anticyclone. Can be fickle. and switch her allegiance, towards the West [West based -NAO]:

SCANDY MANDY – Scandinavian Anticyclone. Every S,E. Members favourite area of high pressure:

SVARLBARD SVEN – Norwegian Island Cousin Anticyclone, of Scandy Mandy.

When Sammy returns, he will introduce you to the "boo and hiss" brigade of the Panto, and are nearly always his Enemies.

Regards,

Sammy Snowman.  

Edited December 6, 2021 by TomSE12

[Tom Quintavalle]

Sammy Snowman, would now like to introduce those in the Panto Cast, who more often than not, are his Enemies

    NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME

COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN

       [Sammy and Samantha get hitched, in Finland]

                                          CAST

                              ENEMIES [Moreorless]

PURPLE VENOM – Polar Vortex [Aka Pernicious Victor/Purple Blob]:

BARBARA THE BARTLETT/EUNICE THE EURO SLUG – Dual personality, stubborn, slow moving Anticyclone to South of U.K.

EL NINO – Gangster head of Peruvian drugs cartel.

LA NINA – Gangster’s moll. Girlfriend of El Nino.

JETHRO JETSTREAM – All American Boy [Aka,The Pest from the West]. Normally the scourge of cold Weather lovers but can be fickle and bifurcate in the N.W. Atlantic, thereby likely to encourage Scandy Mandy/The Beast from the East, to appear.

Sammy sincerely hopes, you'll be seeing much more of his friends than his enemies, over the Festive period.

When Sammy returns a little later, he will post up the times of the performances, which will occur after he has digested the 00z Forecast Model runs.

These will begin on the Morning of 9th December, at T384, with the G.F.S. Model.

Regards,

Sammy Snowman  

Edited December 6, 2021 by TomSE12

[Tom Quintavalle]

Sammy Snowman. will now post up the times when you can view performance of his Christmas Pantomime, in terms of his Synoptic analysis , of the 00z Forecast Model runs but before he does, below are details of two important locations, in the Panto:

GINA the G.I.N. [Greenland/Iceland/Norway] Corridor - The all important battleground where, Synoptic features vie for supremacy.

LEVI [Northern Finnish Ski resort] - The location for Sammy and Samantha's Wedding, on Christmas Day. It is deep, crisp and even there, at the moment, where the current temperature is a bone chilling, -17c [1.4f].

Panto performance times will take place, after Sammy Snowman has digested the Forecast Model output, on the following dates : - 

THURS. 9th DEC. [GFS T384], SAT.11th DEC [GFS T336]. MON.13th DEC. [GFS T288]. WEDS.15th DEC. [ECM.GFS T240].

FRI.17th DEC [ECM,GFS,UKMO T144]. SUN.19th [ECM,GFS,UKMO T120], and then the same 3 Forecast Models every Day, until 25th.

Regards,

Sammy Snowman  

[Tom Quintavalle]

Afternoon all,

Sammy Snowman hopes yourselves and your Families, are well.

He would also like to apologise for his non appearance, this Morning.

His health hasn't been great, the last couple of Days but is determined to begin his Panto, Tomorrow Morning.

The delay will mean, Sammy will begin his Synoptic analysis  at T360 on the 00z GFS Model. Christmas Day minus 15 Days.

Regards,

Tom.   

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all,

Sammy hopes he finds yourselves and your Families, well.

Sammy would also like to thank Paul and Malcolm [BLESSED WEATHER], for allowing him to present this Pantomime.

He would also like to apologise for his non appearance Yesterday, due to feeling a little under the Weather.

He's now running a Day late, therefore will begin his analysis of Forecast Models earliest look at Christmas Day , with the American G.F.S. Model, at T360, and post up a few charts, to illustrate his findings.

 NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME

COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN

       [Sammy and Samantha get hitched, in Finland]

                                 ACT 1 [G.F.S. T360]

Sammy's first chart depicts the expected situation at Midnight, on the G.F.S. Model Christmas Day [T360].

         00z G.F.S. [Sat.25th Dec]

A strong area of High Pressure, in the N.W. Atlantic, is situated just to the East of Newfoundland.

A complex area of Low Pressure, is situated over N.W.Russia.

 SAMMY SNOWMAN is pleased to see that an ally and friend of his -

 - SVARLBARD SVEN, attempting to ridge down from the North,

in an attempt to block off -   GINA the G.I.N. Corridor,

this aids the arrival of a N flow, over the S.E. Region.

Boos and hissing can be heard from the audience, along with shouts of, "look behind you",

as the  - PURPLE VENOM [aka Polar Vortex/Pernicious Victor],

lurks ominously, to the N.W. of Greenland.

Although by no means of Winter Wonderland of a beginning to the Panto, Sammy thinks it could look a lot worse.

                2 METRE TEMPS                                       PRECIPITATION

 

Two Metre temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees above freezing, and as Precipitation charts show, some light Showers are forecast to run across the East of the S,E. Region, , and at those temperatures, Sammy surmises that it's not out of the question to see a bit of Wintriness, if those Showers, were to occur.

SAMMY would describe his mood as content, after his initial blog on the prospects of a White Christmas, for the S.E. Region.

But Sammy would admit, there's a lot of water, frozen or otherwise to flow [can frozen water, flow? Doh!!], under the S.E. Region's bridge yet, before we arrive at the "big" Day, in terms of Forecast Models.

   SAMMY and  SAMANTHA,

will be flying out to Rovaniemi, and then on to Levi [Northern Finnish Ski Resort} -  

 

The frozen loved up couple, will be preparing for their Christmas Day Wedding in Levi, where the current temperature, is around -10c.

That concludes Sammy Snowman's first Synoptic blog [Act 1], in his South East Regional Christmas Pantomime.

He will present Act 2, on Sunday 12th Dec., where he will analyse the 00z G.F.S. Forecast  for Christmas Day, by that time at T312.

Regards,

Sammy Snowman  

[Tom Quintavalle]

    NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME

COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN

       [Sammy and Samantha get hitched, in Finland]

                            ACT 2 [G.F.S. T312]

Morning all,

Sammy Snowman hopes yourselves and your Families, are well.

He is pleased to an announce that both himself and Samantha, arrived  in Finland on Saturday and fortunately, there were no last minute, travel problems.

 SAMMY and his Fiancee   SAMANTHA

 

are now safely tucked away, in their Ice Hotel - 

at the Finnish Ski Resort of Levi -  

where the temperature is around -6c, with a light S/S.W. flow -  

So, it's not as cold as it was, a few Days ago.

But Sammy knows you're all waiting on his thoughts, weatherwise, for the S.E. Region., on Christmas Day. 

Having digested his Breakfast, Frosties [of course] and partly frozen milk, he is now ready to post up his analysis, based on the 00z GFS Model run, for 00z Christmas Day [T312].

          00z G.F.S [Sat.25th Dec]  

A large area of High Pressure is centred to the E.S.E of the U.K., over Germany. 

A pretty deep area of Low Pressure, is spinning around in mid-Atlantic.

Sammy has noted that the area of High Pressure looks as if it wants to transfer N.W. , to encourage -

 - GRETA the GREENIE, to appear.

Sammy is very much hoping this will happen but is also aware that these heights could fail to retrogress, and sink back South.

The worry would then be that - 

BARBARA the BARTLETT/EUNICE the EURO SLUG, would develop and become stubborn and slow moving!!

    2 METRE TEMPS [00z 25th Dec]

Although, there looks to be no chance of Snow falling at the moment on Christmas Day, with Temperatures at around or just below freezing at Midnight, it will at least feel fairly Festive, and the Synoptics at the moment could look a lot worse.

Sammy notes, that the Atlantic looks pretty calm, with little sign of the -

 - PURPLE VENOM [aka Polar Vortex/Pernicious Victor],

and his partner in crime -  -  JETHRO JETSTREAM – All American Boy [Aka,The Pest from the West].

All seems pretty quiet in -  - GINA the G.I.N. Corridor,

Taking all the above into account, although no sign of a Winter Wonderland, Sammy would describe his mood as fairly content -

That concludes Sammy Snowman's second Synoptic blog [Act 2], in his South East Regional Christmas Pantomime.

He will present Act 3, on Tuesday 14th Dec., where he will analyse the 00z G.F.S. Forecast  for Christmas Day, by that time at T264.

Regards,

Sammy Snowman    

[Tom Quintavalle]

    NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME

    COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN

       [Sammy and Samantha get hitched, in Finland]

                            ACT 3 [G.F.S. T264]

Morning all,

Sammy Snowman hopes yourselves and your Families, are well.

He has finished his Breakfast and will now register his thoughts on the 00z G.F.S. run, for Christmas Say [T264].

Again, he will illustrate his findings with some charts, from that 00z run.

         00z G.F.S. [Sat.25th Dec]

An area of High Pressure, roughly centred over S.E. England, dominates N.W. Europe. It's influence stretches from the N.W. of the U.K,, extending S.E.  over Italy. A complex are of Low Pressure is centred just to the East, of Newfoundland. A shallow area of Low Pressure, is situated on the North Coast of Norway. Another shallow Low, is located in the South Eastern part of Western Russia. The U.K. High, is throwing a Ridge N.W., towards Greenland.

Temperatures over S.E. England, are at or just below freezing. Winds are light and variable, over S.E. England.

   2 METRE TEMPS [00z 25th Dec]               10 METRE WIND [00z 25th Dec]

     

There is no Precipitation, Snow or otherwise, anywhere near the S.E. Region.

    PRECIPITATION [00z 25th Dec]

Sammy would now like to comment on the usual negative comments on the M.A.D. [Moaners and Doubters], Thread.

He understands the frustration, regarding the reluctance of that U.K. High, not seemingly keen to transfer N.W.

But Sammy suggests not to blame the M.J.O [Mean and Jerky Oscillation] but lays the blame squarely at the door of that BRR-Exit deal, struck by that bloke, called Boris,

This has meant that the likes of  - SCANDY MANDY

 - BERDY the RUSSIAN BEAR.

 - BEAST FROM THE EAST.

 - GENOVESE MO [the Genoa Low],

like many Synoptic features, are subject to travel restrictions  and Border controls.

In the current Synoptic set-up, you would normally expect - - EUNICE the EURO SLUG,

to be enticed away, to come to the aid of -  - GRETA the GREENIE.

But due to the post BRR-Exit Border controls, she can't get any further N,W., than the U.K.,

and keeps slipping back South again, probably not helped by her slimy underbelly.

Sammy Snowman, will continue further details of Act 3, in the following Blog.

Regards,

Sammy Snowman   

 

 

Edited December 14, 2021 by TomSE12

[Tom Quintavalle]

    NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME

    COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN

       [Sammy and Samantha get hitched, in Finland]

                         ACT 3 [G.F.S. T264] Continued]

Another reason, for Sammy to be in Finland, is to host a Meeting between U.S.D.A.W.[Union of Snowmen Distrubuted Around the World]. 

The E.U.S. [European Union of Snowmen], and Members of S.A,C.R.A. [Snowgeeks Anonymous and Coldies Raising Awareness].

You may recall, that last December, as a result of the BRR-Exit deal, U.S.D.A.W., split from the E.U.S. and since then relations have been at an all time low.

In a bid to repair the damage, Sammy Snowman has convened a Meeting of the Parties above, which is due to take place in Sammy's -

 - Ice Hotel, in the Ski Resort of -  - Levi.

In his role as chief negotiator with U.S.D.A.W., is hoping to refreeze the thawing relations [stick with it!!], between U.S.D.A.W and the E.U.S.

Members of S.A.C.R.A., have invited along, to mediate between the warring Snowmen Unions.

Sammy realises, there would be nothing worse than a load of melting Snowmen - ,

sat around a table, a very depressing, squelchy mess.

Sammy was also hoping that -  - LA NINA,

would attend the talks, as she is on duty this Winter, off the Pacific West Coast, of South America.

But she has been forbidden to attend, by her Peruvian Gangster Boyfriend -   - EL NINO.

Unfortunately, LA NINA is very much under the thumb [or the foot], of her bullying 'fella.

On a lighter note, Sammy's parents -  - will be arriving in Finland to prepare for their Son's Wedding,

along with Sammy's Sister and Chief Bridesmaid -  - the very attractive, SALLY SNOWWOMAN.

They will be organising the Catering side of things. The food will of course be supplied, by Iceland.

 

Taking into account this Morning's 00z G.F.S. Model run, although still no Snow is likely, Sammy would still describe his mood as - 

 - as fairly content.

With still 11 Days to go to the big Day, Sammy concludes there is still time, for Models to serve up some "white stuff", on Christmas Day for the S.E. Region.

Sammy is aware, that it's a much quoted Mantra but "more runs needed" is probably applicable, in the current Synoptic situation, along with a bit of patience..

It's not out of the question, that the Parties at Saturday's important talks, may be able to hammer out a deal, for a S.S.W. [Sudden Snowmen Warming], in the New Year.

Sammy will present Act 4 Tomorrow Morning, with the E.C.M.W.F [Every Coldies Morning Winter Fantasy] Model, joining the G.F.S. Model at T240.

Regards,

Sammy Snowman  

Edited December 14, 2021 by TomSE12

[Tom Quintavalle]

        NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME

    COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN

       [Sammy and Samantha get hitched, in Finland]

                         ACT 4 [00z E.C.M./G.F.S. T240] 

Morning all,

Sammy Snowman hopes yourselves and your Families, are well.

With just 10 Days to go to Christmas Day, and Sammy now has another Forecasting tool at his disposal.

That being the E.C.M.W.F [Every Coldies Morning Winter Fantasy], or will it be a case of E.C.M. [Every Coldies [Night] 'Mare].

All will be revealed, shortly.

Sammy will begin this Morning's analysis, with the ECM Model, with relevant charts to illustrate.

A complex are of Low Pressure, lies to the W.S.W., of the U.K., with 2 centres. One centre to the West of Southern Ireland, has a central pressure, of around <980 mbs. A "spawned" and developing Low is located, just off the N.W. tip of Spain, with a central pressure of around 970 mbs.

An area of High Presuure [1,020> mbs], centred just to the West of The Azores, is throwing a Ridge North, towards the Southern tip of Greenland. A small "wedge" of heights, can be seen extending from an area of High Pressure, centred near Poland, N.W. towards Norway and Iceland.

A complex area of Low Pressure can be seen, over N.E. Canada and another Low [<970 mbs], lies to the N.E. of Scandinavia.

            00z E.C.M.[25th Dec]

Winds over the S.E. Region, are fairly fresh and from a S./S.E., direction.

850 hPa Stream lines 00z E.C.M. [25th Dec]

      

The temperatures at 850hPa [about 1.5 Kms], are between -1c and -3c, across the S.E. Region.

   850hPa Temp.  00z E.C.M. [25th Dec]

    

Sammy will continue his analysis of the 00z runs, in a separate post.

Regards,

Sammy Snowman.  

Edited December 15, 2021 by TomSE12

[Tom Quintavalle]

  NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME

    COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN

       [Sammy and Samantha get hitched, in Finland]

             ACT 4 [00z E.C.M./G.F.S. T240] [Continued].

Sammy will now continue this Morning's analysis, with the GFS Model, with relevant charts from the 00z run, to illustrate.

A complex area of Low Pressure lies in the Central North Atlantic, with a centre [<985 mbs], just to the S.E. of Greenland.

There are reasonable heights, over Central Greenland. A more shallow area of High Pressure can be seen, over N.E. Canada.

Over the far East of Europe, a complex area of shallow Low Pressure can be seen, with a main centre [<995 mbs], over N.W. Russia, and 2 more shallow features, one over Belarus and one close to the Kazhakstan border.

         00z G.F.S [00z 25th Dec]

Temperatures at the 850hPa level, are between -1c and -6.5c, across the S.E. Region.

      850 hPa Temp. [00z 25th Dec]

Two Metre temperatures across the S.E. Region, are just below freezing and +4c/+5c.

    2 METRE TEMPS [00z 25th Dec]

The only Precipitation showing up is some light Rain, clipping into the Essex/Suffolk Coast.

Although, Sammy notes there is some Wintriness in the Ppn, in the East of the North Sea.

PRECIPITATION TYPE [00z 25th Dec]

Sammy will conclude Act 4, with a summing up of the Synoptic situation, with 10 Days to go, of the  NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME, in a short while.

Regards,

Sammy Snowman.   

Edited December 15, 2021 by TomSE12

[Tom Quintavalle]

        NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME

    COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN

       [Sammy and Samantha get hitched, in Finland]

             ACT 4 [00z E.C.M./G.F.S. T240] [Continued].

Sammy will now conclude Act 4 of the NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME, with a summing up of the Synoptic situation, with 10 Days to go to Christmas Day, featuring Members of the Panto cast.

 - SAMMY notes that despite several attempts to entice -

EUNICE the EURO SLUG,

up to the N.W. to aid -   - GRETA the GREENIE,

Or up to the N.E., to assist -   - SCANDY MANDY,

Eunice resisted all these attempts, even when -    - SVARLBARD SVEN,

appeared briefly at one point, during those 00z runs.

Sammy reminds S.E. Regional Members, that this to be expected, after BRR-Exit meant that travel restrictions/Border controls, would be imposed on Synoptic features.

But Sammy hasn't "given up the ghost", just yet. He knows that the current Synoptic pattern could turn in our favour, come Christmas Day. 

Taking the 00z ECM/GFS runs into account, Sammy would describe his current mood, as -

 - nonchalant.

Although not in his remit, Sammy noted that around the 28th December on the 00z GFS run, the S.E. Region, experienced a brief Easterly, with a little of the white stuff.

Sammy has also noted that the -  - PURPLE VENOM and - 

 - JETHRO JETSTREAM, are pretty quiet at the moment.

This means that -  - GINA the G.I.N. Corridor,

is up for "grabs", and his allies should take the opportunity while it exists, to take control of this area. 

Tomorrow Morning, Sammy Snowman will return with Act 5, of the NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME.

This will feature the ECM/GFS 00z runs for 00z Christmas Day, which by that time will be at T216.

Regards,

Sammy Snowman   

Edited December 15, 2021 by TomSE12

[Tom Quintavalle]

        NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME

        COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN

                [Sammy and Samantha get hitched, in Finland]

                               ACT 5 [00z E.C.M./G.F.S. T216] 

Morning all,

Sammy Snowman hopes yourselves and your Families, are well.

We're into single figures now, with just 9 Days to go until the "big" Day.

Sammy will begin this Morning's Synoptic analysis, with the European Model but will it be a case of E.C.M.[Every Coldies {Night] 'Mare], or E.C.M.W.F. [Every Coldies Morning Winter Fantasy]. Stay tuned, and all will be revealed.

An are of High Pressure [around 1030 mbs], is located between Greenland and Iceland.

A complex are of Low Pressure with 2 centres, stretches across the N. Atlantic. One centre [around 960 mbs], just to the East of Newfoundland, with a second, more shallow feature [<990 mbs], on the N.W. tip of Spain.

There is also an area of Low Pressure [<995 mbs], situated to the West of Greenland. 

A small area of High Pressure can be seen below this feature, over the far N.E. of Canada.

Another shallow area of Low Pressure, is centred over the far N.W. of Russia.

A Shortwave can be seen, centred over the Netherlands.

Temperatures at the 850hPa level, are around -7c, across the S.E. Region.

Winds are a light N/N.E., throughout the S.E. Region.

 500 hPa 00z E.C.M.W.F. [00z 25th Dec]         850 hPa 00z E.C.M.W.F. [00z 25th Dec]

                

In a short while, Sammy will return with his analysis of the 00z G.F.S. Model run, at T216 [00z Christmas Day].

Regards,

Sammy Snowman.  

Edited December 16, 2021 by TomSE12

[Tom Quintavalle]

    NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME

        COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN

                [Sammy and Samantha get hitched, in Finland]

                    ACT 5 [00z E.C.M./G.F.S. T216] [Continued]

Sammy will now continue with this Morning's Synoptic analysis, with a look at the G.F.S. Model's 00z run, at T216 on Christmas Day, with charts to illustrate.

A complex area of Low Pressure, is situated in the N.W. of the North Atlantic.

It's main centre is a fairly deep affair, at around 955 mbs, just to the East of Newfoundland.

There are weak heights, over Greenland.

An are of Low Pressure, is situated to the North of N.W.Russia/Scandinavia.

A weak area of High Pressure is located, over Benelux/N.W.Germany.

Temperatures at the 850hPa level, are around -1c/-1.5c, across the S.E. Region.

  500 hPa 00z G.F.S. [00z 25th Dec]       850 hPa 00z G.F.S. [00z 25th Dec]   

  

Two Metre temperatures are just above freezing, for the majority of the S.E. Region.

Winds are a light S,S.E., for the majority of the S.E. Regioin.

  2 METRE TEMP. 00z G.F.S. [00z 25th Dec]  10 METRE WIND 00zG.F.S. [00z 25th Dec]   

                 

There is no precipitation to be seen anywhere, close to the S.E. Region.

PRECIPITATION 00z G.F.S. [00z 25th Dec]

     

Sammy will conclude Act 5, with a summing up of the Synoptic situation, with 9 Days to go, of the  NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME, later this Morning.

Regards,

Sammy Snowman.  

Edited December 16, 2021 by TomSE12

[Tom Quintavalle]

           NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME

           COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN

                [Sammy and Samantha get hitched, in Finland]

                    ACT 5 [00z E.C.M./G.F.S. T216] [Continued]

Sammy will now conclude Act 5, with a summing up of the Synoptic situation, with 9 Days to go, of the  NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME, featuring Members of the Panto cast.

 - SAMMY freely admits to being a very confused Snowman this Morning, after viewing those two 00z Model runs.

Sammy, will take a look at the European Model first, and it was very much a case of, E.very C.oldies M.orning W.inter F.antasy!!

Although -   - EUNICE the EURO SLUG, has quickly slid back South, it wasn't before she galvanised -

 - GRETA the GREENIE, into action.

Greta is sitting pretty between her homeland of Greenland, and Iceland.

She is very much helping to shut the door of -  - GINA the G.I.N. Corridor,

and keeping -  -  JETHRO JETSTREAM – All American Boy [Aka,The Pest from the West], at bay.

An extra member of the cast, has entered Stage left, that being -  - SHARON SHORTWAVE Trough.

Although Sammy isn't counting his frozen chickens yet but after viewing the E.C.M. 00z  run, he would describe his mood, as -

  - happy.

In a short while, Sammy will complete Act 5, with his thoughts on that 00z GFS run, featuring Members of the Panto cast.

Regards,

Sammy Snowman.  

Edited December 16, 2021 by TomSE12

[Tom Quintavalle]

           NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME

           COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN

                [Sammy and Samantha get hitched, in Finland]

                    ACT 5 [00z E.C.M./G.F.S. T216] [Continued]

Sammy will now end Act 5, with a summing up of the Synoptic situation, after the Synoptic situation depicted by the G.F.S. Model, at 00z on Christmas Day [T216], featuring Members of the Panto cast.

The phrase that comes to mind for Sammy is chalk and cheese, when comparing the 00z E.C.M. run, with that G.F.S. run.

There's no sign of -  - GRETA the GREENIE.

And the -   - PURPLE VENOM [aka Polar Vortex/Pernicious Victor],

is much more in evidence over the North Pole, and stretching down to N.W. Russia.

It's like to be fairly cold at the surface, Sammy suggests it's "faux" cold, and nothing like the Polar Continental flow, being shown by the European Model.

After viewing the 00z G.F.S. run, Sammy would describe his mood as -

 - confused. 

Sammy Snowman will end Act 5, with that well-worn phrase, "more runs needed."

Tomorrow Morning, Sammy will present Act 6 of the NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME,

with his Synoptic analysis of the 00z E.C.M./G.F.S Modell runs at T192 [00z Christmas Day].

Regards,

Sammy Snowman  

Edited December 16, 2021 by TomSE12

[Tom Quintavalle]

           NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME

           COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN

                [Sammy and Samantha get hitched, in Finland]

                    ACT 6 [00z E.C.M./G.F.S. T168] 

Morning all,

Sammy Snowman hopes yourselves and your Families, are well.

Sammy would like to apologise for his non appearance, for Yesterday Morning's analysis at T192 but he was a bit under the Weather and running a slight temperature but it's not the dreaded CV, probably a "faux" cold.

Mind you, he could do with shedding a few lbs of frozen Snow, for the Wedding photos on Christmas Day!!

Just 7 Days to go now to the big Day.

Sammy will begin this Morning's Synoptic analysis, with the European Model at T168, with charts to illustrate.

There are reasonable heights over Greenland, with a Ridge protruding down from the N.E.

A complex area of Low Pressure stretches out across the North of the North Atlantic, with two centres.

The deeper feature [<970 mbs], is located just to the East of Newfoundland. The more shallow feature [<980 mbs], is located a few hundred miles, S.W. of Ireland.

Another complex area of Low Pressure is situated, stretching from the N.E. Cost of Finland down to the extreme W. of Russia., with central Pressure [<985 mbs].

Temperatures at the 850hPa level, are between -5c and +2c across the S.E. Region.

Winds are fairly light throughout the S.E. Region, from the S.E., in the North of the Region and S.W., in the South of the Region.

  500 hPa 00z E.C.M. [00z 25th Dec]              850 hPa 00z E,C.M. [00z 25th Dec]   

           

 

In a short while, Sammy will return with his analysis of the 00z G.F.S. Model run, at T168 [00z Christmas Day].

Regards,

Sammy Snowman.   

Edited December 18, 2021 by TomSE12

[Tom Quintavalle]

           NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME

           COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN

                [Sammy and Samantha get hitched, in Finland]

                    ACT 6 [00z E.C.M./G.F.S. T168] [Continued]

Sammy will now continue with this Morning's Synoptic analysis, with a look at the G.F.S. Model's 00z run, at T168 on Christmas Day, with charts to illustrate.

A area of High Pressure [circa 1045> mbs], is located over Greenland, with a Ridge stretching N.E., down from the high Arctic.

A shallow and complex area of Low Pressure, is situated close to Baffin Bay, with a central pressure of around 995 mbs.

A complex area of Low Pressure, can be found stretching along, in the North of the North Atlantic.

It has two centres, have a central Pressure, at around 975 mbs.

Another complex area of Low Pressure, is situated over N.E. Scandinavia and the extreme N.W. of Russia.

The central pressure of this feature, is around 985 mbs.

Another complex area of Low Pressure, is situated close to Baffin Bay.

Temperatures at the 850hPa level, are between -2c in the N.E. of the Region and +3c, in the S.W. of the Region.

Winds are light and mainly from a Northerly quarter, throughout Region, 

   500 hPa 00z G.F.S. [00z 25th Dec]       850 hPa 00z G.F.S. [00z 25th Dec]   

   

There is hardly any Precipitation to be found across the Region, just slight "echoes", on the Essex and Kent Coast.

PRECIPITATION 00z G.F.S. [00z 25th Dec]

     

Sammy will conclude Act 6, with a summing up of the Synoptic situation, with 7 Days to go, of the  NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME, with Members of the Panto cast, in a short while.

Regards,

Sammy Snowman.  

Edited December 18, 2021 by TomSE12

[Tom Quintavalle]

          NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME

           COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN

                [Sammy and Samantha get hitched, in Finland]

                    ACT 6 [00z E.C.M./G.F.S. T168] [Continued]

Sammy will now conclude Act 6, with a summing up of the Synoptic situation, with 7 Days to go, of the  NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME, featuring Members of the Panto cast.

 - SAMMY has to admit to being a worried Snowman, this Morning.

Even though -  - GRETA the GREENIE with the help of - 

 - SVARLBARD SVEN, are doing the utmost to shut off- 

 - GINA the G.I.N. Corridor.

Dastardly -  -  JETHRO JETSTREAM – All American Boy [Aka,The Pest from the West], 

is attempting to send that Atlantic Low, on a slightly more Northerly trajectory, thereby allowing milder upper air, to infiltrate the S.E. Region.

 In conclusion, Sammy would describe his mood after viewing those 00z Model runs, as -

 

 worried and -  - sad.

But Sammy would like to end Act 6, on a positive note.

Tomorrow Morning, we'll be down to 6 Days [T144], and knows full well, there is still time for that Atlantic Low to be Forecast to approach the S.E. Region, on a more Southerly track.

As has been commented on, in the M.A.D [MOANERS and DOUBTERS] Thread, unlike British Rails February 1991, "wrong type of Snow", we have ourselves the "wrong shape of Low". It needs to elongate [disrupt], and lose that "Bowling Ball shape.

  - SOLOMON and SHARON,, Aammy's Parents

reminded their Son of an award winning post-Christmas Panto they appeared in, back in late December1978:

Below, is a screenshot from that award winning Panto, back on 31st December 1978:

Tomorrow Morning, Sammy will present Act 7 of the NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME,

with his Synoptic analysis of the 00z runs at T144, when the E,C.M., G.F.S Models, will be joined by the -

U.K.M.O [U Know {it's] Meteorological Overkill].

Regards,

Sammy Snowman  

Edited December 18, 2021 by TomSE12

[Tom Quintavalle]

           NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME

           COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN

                [Sammy and Samantha get hitched, in Finland]

                              ACT 7 [00z E.C.M./G.F.S./U.K.M.O T144] 

Morning all,

Sammy Snowman hopes yourselves and your Families, are well.

Just 6 Days to go now to Christmas Day.

Sammy know has an extra Forecasting tool, at his disposal.

That being the the U.K.M.O. [U Know [it's] Meteiorological Overkill], Model.

Sammy will begin this Morning's Synoptic analysis, with the European Model, with the "big Day" now at T144.

An Ridge of High Pressure is extending S.W., from close to Svarlbard, reinforcing reasonable heights over Greenland.

A complex area of Low Pressure, extends E.S.E, across the North of the North Atlantic. The main centre at around <965 mbs, lies just to the N.E. of Newfoundland. The much more shallow "right arm" of this feature, reaches down to the tip of Brittany.

Another complex area of Low Pressure can be seen, extending down from just off the Coast of N.W. Russia, South Westwards into Eastern Europe. It's main centre of around 980 mbs, is situated over C/.S. Finland.

These are the main Synoptic features, visible on the 00z E,C,M Model run.

Temperatures at the 850hPa level, are around -7c, in the N.E of the Region, to around -3.5c in the S.W. of the Region.

The wind is mainly light , and from the N.E/E.N.E., throughout the whole of the Region.

 500 hPa 00z E.C.M.W.F. [00z 25th Dec]         850 hPa 00z E.C.M.W.F. [00z 25th Dec]

                

In a short while, Sammy will return with his analysis of the 00z G.F.S. Model run, at T144 [00z Christmas Day].

Regards,

Sammy Snowman.    

Edited December 19, 2021 by TomSE12

[Tom Quintavalle]

           NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME

           COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN

                [Sammy and Samantha get hitched, in Finland]

                     ACT 7 [00z E.C.M./G.F.S. /U.K.M.O.T144] 

Sammy will now post up  his analysis of the 00z G.F.S. Model run, at T144 [00z Christmas Day].

An area of High Pressure is situated over Greenland, with central Pressure around 1050> mbs.

A complex area of Low Pressure, extends E.S.E, across the North of the North Atlantic

It's Western most centre is around 985 mbs, and just off the Coast of N.E. Canada.

It's Eastern most centre, is a few hundred Miles West of Ire;and, at around 975 mbs.

**NB** - The American Model, has this feature quite a bit further North, than its European counterpart.

There is another complex area of Low Pressure, extending down from the Arctic Sea above N.W. Russia, down across Finland.

Again, this feature is further North on the G.F.S. Model, than the European Model.

These are the main Synoptic features, visible on the 00z G.F.S.Model run.

Temperatures at the 850hPa level, are around +2/+3c, throughout the Region.

Winds are light S.W. throughout the Region.

  500 hPa 00z G.F.S. [00z 25th Dec]         850 hPa 00z G.F.S.. [00z 25th Dec]

    

Some light Precipitation [Rain], is clearing to the East of the Region.

                              PRECIPITATION 00z G.F.S. [00z 25th Dec]

                                    

In a short while, Sammy will return with his analysis of the 00z U.K.M.O. Model run, at T144 [00z Christmas Day].

Regards,

Sammy Snowman.     

Edited December 19, 2021 by TomSE12

[Tom Quintavalle]

           NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME

           COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN

                [Sammy and Samantha get hitched, in Finland]

                     ACT 7 [00z E.C.M./G.F.S. /U.K.M.O.T144] 

Sammy will now post up  his analysis of the 00z U.K.M.O. Model run, at T144 [00z Christmas Day].

A weak area of High Pressure [circa 1020 mbs], is located over Greenland 

A complex area of Low Pressure, extends E.S.E, across the North of the North Atlantic

It's Western most centre is around 960 mbs, just to the N.E. of Newfoundland.

In its Eastern sector, two shallow centres lie just to the N.W. of Iberia.

There is also another area of Low Pressure, extending down from the Arctic Sea above N.W. Russia, down across Finland.

It has a central Pressure of around 980 mbs, and is centred over the Gulf of Finland.

500 hPa 00z U.K.M.O. [00z 25th Dec]

In a short while, Sammy will conclude Act 7, with a summing up of the Synoptic situation, with 6 Days to go, of the  NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME, with Members of the Panto cast.

Regards,

Sammy Snowman.  

Edited December 19, 2021 by TomSE12

[Tom Quintavalle]

           NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME

           COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN

                [Sammy and Samantha get hitched, in Finland]

                    ACT 7 [00z E.C.M./G.F.S. T192] 

Sammy will now conclude Act 7, with a summing up of the Synoptic situation, with 6 Days to go, of the  NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME, featuring Members of the Panto cast.

Sammy admits to being a confused.com Snowman this Morning, after the major discrepancies between the American and European Models.

He is encouraged to see that -  - is still to the fore, over her homeland,

and getting plenty of support from -  - SVARLBARD SVEN.

Sammy is pleased that -  - GINA G.I.N. Corridor,

is closed to the enemy.

But the ongoing differences between the European and American Models, has meant that Sammy would describe his moos, as still -  

 

 - confused.

Sammy is of the opinion that by Tomorrow Evening, we should have much more of an idea, if the S.E. Region will have a Wet or a White Christmas.

Tomorrow Morning, Sammy will present Act 8 of the Netweather South East Regional Patomime, with a look at the 00z E.C.M./G,F.S. and U.K.M.O. Model runs, at T120 [00z Christmas Day]. 

Regards,

Sammy Snowman  

[Tom Quintavalle]

           NETWEATHER SOUTH EAST REGIONAL PANTOMIME

           COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN

                [Sammy and Samantha get hitched, in Finland]

Morning all,

Sammy Snowman hopes yourselves and your Families, are well.

Before Sammy presents his Synoptic analysis of this Morning's 00z Model runs, he has to report on some very worrying news that has filtered down from Paul, at Netweather Towers.

The normal Pre-Christmas Netweather self inflicting Virus, has mutated into a highly contagious variant.

This variant has been named the N.H.S. [Netweather Hearsay Syndrome]

This has resulted in Paul having to close many of the Weather related Threads, in a bid to limit the spread of the N.H.S. Virus.

Many visitors to the M.A,D.[Moaners and Doubters] Thread, are experiencing symptoms. 

These are as follows:

1] - Hanging on every word, that some Members post. 2] - Uncontrollable knee jerking movements, when they view each frame of a Model run. Which results in - 3] - A sudden raising of Blood Pressure, Palpitations and a shortness of breath. 4] - Insomnia, resulting in the need to get up at 4.30 A.M., to view the early 00z Model runs. 5] - An uncontrollable urge to tell Friends and Relatives, that it will Rain/Snow, on Christmas Day.

It has spread extremely quickly around the Forum, doubling in cases after each Model run, so much so that Paul convened an emergency Meeting, Yesterday [by zoom of course]

In attendance were Dr Nick Sussex, an eminent Psychiatrist with W.H.O. [Weather [Mental] Health Organisation], and some Members of S.A.C.R.A. [Snowlovers And Coldies Raise  Awareness].

The upshot of this Emergency Meeting was to introduce immediate and tough restrictions, throughout the Forum, in a bid to limit the spread of this very debilitating Virus.

These restrictions will be enforced from 4.30 P.M. ,Today, in time for the 12z Model runs.

This will result in a maximum of 10 Members visiting the M.A.D. Thread, at any one time.

After a Member has visited that Thread, they MUST disinfect their Computer Keyboards and Screens for at least 20 seconds, whilst singing, Happy Birthday. Other restrictions will include, Social Media distancing. For those Members still wishing to enter the M.A.D. Thread, they MUST wear full protective clothing, especially gloves.

Those Members experiencing symptoms of N.H.S., MUST self isolate until Spring, or when the last possibility of Snow falling has disappeared.

Speaking from his retreat in Cyprus, Dr Sussex expressed his concerns of dangerously low stocks of the anti-N.H.S drug, Valium.

This shortage has been caused by BRR-Exit.

In a short while, Sammy Snowman will present Act 8 of the Netweather South East Regional Pantomime.

Regards,

Sammy Snowman  

Edited December 20, 2021 by TomSE12