Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Does that mean a stronger vortex with those two connecting?

 

Likely, with any amplification subsiding into a flatter westerly flow across the Atlantic

[knocker]

Still some showers down the east coast today in the brisk northerly  but but this easing later as high pressure edges west. After a widespread early frost perhaps a tad more cloud in the west tomorrow but a tad milder, albeit breezier in the north with the odd shower

And essentially this is the scenario over thev weekend

 

 

Edited January 20, 2022 by knocker

[knocker]

Quite an active Atlantic with wave breaking that gives further impetus to the Azores ridge

[phil nw.]

GFS 12z charts.

show a fairly widespread frost tonight partly because of the legacy of cold arctic air left over from the brief northerly

over the following days/nights we see milder upper air infiltrating the high over the top so frosts become more localised further south. 

 

   

Whilst the high remains slow moving into next week it looks like more cloud will be drawn into it with clear spells becoming less noticeable.Frosts less likely and daytime temperatures not far from average.

                                                            

Edited January 20, 2022 by phil nw.

[knocker]

This evening the ecm has the tpv aligned further east than the gfs and thus a flatter westerly flow across the Atlantic, albeit both indicating strong +ve anomalies over the eastern half of the latter and a continuation of generally dry and settled conditions. But perhaps the ecm more prone to the odd incursion from the NW

[knocker]

Over the last two or three days the ecm has indicated, in the ext period, a greater keeness than the gfs  to suppress amplification in the Atlantic and thus a more zonal upper flow and it continues this theme this morning. By way of introduction it tracks a low north of Scotland late Weds/through Thursday with the associated fronts tracking south east down the country

And following that it realigns the tpv over the Arctic, the gfs not so keen, resulting in this NH comparison

Edited January 21, 2022 by knocker

[phil nw.]

Something different on the horizon in tonight's later outputs.

We again see the main vortex stretched across the north from the Canadian to Russian side continuing with a broad Atlantic westerly flow being directed over the blocking high over the south of the UK currently.

The ensemble means indicate the coming 10 days will see our resident high gradually losing it's influence as it slips further south.

Charts for days 5 and 10 from both models.

The westerly flow spreading to much of the UK as time goes on.Some quite cold air lurking to the north looking to get in the mix later perhaps as weather fronts start to head further south across the country.Certainly looking more unsettled as we approach month end on these with the north likely to be first to see some polar air in the mix.

gefs days 10-14 850s 5day mean

 
 

showing the colder air coming south later in week 2.A signal for change at last maybe to something more unsettled and colder to start February.We shall see.

[phil nw.]

UKMO output for the rest of the working week shows our high gamely resisting attempts from low pressure further north to move it too far away from it's current favoured home near the south of the UK.

T72fax                                                       T96                                                       T120

Hints though that it's influence is starting to wane as time goes on with weak frontal systems finding their way further south later in the week.

[phil nw.]

The day 10 ecm/gfs mean nh charts.

shows the mean jet running across the UK with high pressure located much further south towards Biscay.thus becoming more unsettled.

gefs 2m temperatures days 1-5 and 6-10

 

indicating that any inversion cold in the south disappears later as the Atlantic westerlies become noticeable into week 2.

[damianslaw]

7 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

The day 10 ecm/gfs mean nh charts.

shows the mean jet running across the UK with high pressure located much further south towards Biscay.thus becoming more unsettled.

gefs 2m temperatures days 1-5 and 6-10

 

indicating that any inversion cold in the south disappears later as the Atlantic westerlies become noticeable into week 2.

Polar front jet is digging further south in the 6-10, but looks quite flat. Blues appearing Iceland and Norway suggests more of polar maritime influence at least here, and cold air not too far from the UK. 

[phil nw.]

6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Polar front jet is digging further south in the 6-10, but looks quite flat. Blues appearing Iceland and Norway suggests more of polar maritime influence at least here, and cold air not too far from the UK. 

Yes nothing really wintery showing for us yet Damien,away from the Scottish highlands perhaps.

Until we see some amplification all the action heads over the top and into Scandinavia and parts of e.Europe.

[damianslaw]

6 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Yes nothing really wintery showing for us yet Damien,away from the Scottish highlands perhaps.

Until we see some amplification all the action heads over the top and into Scandinavia and parts of e.Europe.

Would just like to see some snow return to the high Lakeland tops at least!.. 

[phil nw.]

The general overall NH pattern expected for days 6=10 mean hts anomalies.

No great change other than signs that the Atlantic jet edges south in week 2 and our high shows a tendency to give way at times as breezier Atlantic weather also starts to move further south.

so a Canadian/Greenland trough stretching east across the pole towards Scandinavia with an e European trough still in evidence.

A broad westerly Atlantic pattern with heights remaining close to the south of the UK although ebbing and flowing somewhat with those more unsettled conditions further north occasionally heading down through the country.

The 850  mean anomalies also for days 6-10

Temperatures varying around the norm as brief spells of pm air are quickly replaced by slightly milder Atlantic temperatures from the next system.

Edited January 25, 2022 by phil nw.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, phil nw. said:

The general overall NH pattern expected for days 6=10 mean hts anomalies.

No great change other than signs that the Atlantic jet edges south in week 2 and our high shows a tendency to give way at times as breezier Atlantic weather also starts to move further south.

so a Canadian/Greenland trough stretching east across the pole towards Scandinavia with an e European trough still in evidence.

A broad westerly Atlantic pattern with heights remaining close to the south of the UK although ebbing and flowing somewhat with those more unsettled conditions further north occasionally heading down through the country.

The 850  mean anomalies also for days 6-10

Temperatures varying around the norm as brief spells of pm air are quickly replaced by slightly milder Atlantic temperatures from the next system.

Some wintry precipitation for high ground in the north at times. Something distinctly lacking this January.

[phil nw.]

Some ukmo fax charts up to the weekend.

highlighting the increasing influence of the Atlantic as frontal systems start to move across the UK again after the long quiet spell.

The high still wants to remain fairly close by and continues to have the effect of weakening the fronts as they come south with very little precipitation left on them by then.

[phil nw.]

A watch for Sunday where it looks like a nasty little feature develops out west and runs over the top of the high and across the north of Scotland before it rushes off south east towards Denmark.

Some gales and rain with snow over the highlands likely.

[johnholmes]

phil that is a 12z chart fro 25 January? The 00z along with UK Met, Fax and model run it further north? Best you check as my eyes seem to play tricks on me at times!

[phil nw.]

5 hours ago, johnholmes said:

phil that is a 12z chart fro 25 January? The 00z along with UK Met, Fax and model run it further north? Best you check as my eyes seem to play tricks on me at times!

Yes Thanks John.Still uncertainty wrt how this will go.

Latest from today's 12 gfs again has this feature tracking towards N.Scotland on Sunday pm. UKMO has a shallower low and a little further south for Sunday afternoon

More fax's out later this evening to see what the latest developments are on this low.Still uncertainty whether this may be much of a feature as it is still to form as a wave depression out in mid Atlantic.

GFS Sat.18z

 

If we look at the above chart from GFS we see the first signs of a development at 45N,33W btween between the 2 highs.

 

Edited January 26, 2022 by phil nw.

[phil nw.]

Latest GFS jet and 850 anomalies.

A deep trough over eastern N.America/Canada with very cold air dragged well south into the southern states.The east coast storm by this time over Newfoundland .Ridging ahead into the Atlantic with the ongoing mid-latitude block.The jet being forced across the top and edging into the UK and se into e.Europe.

[phil nw.]

A look at the eps 500 pattern and the 850's for days 1-5 and then 6-10.Indicating a little change to the pattern later.

The development of east Canadian hts helping to angle the Atlantic jet more nw-se as it heads towards the UK over the retreating block.This ushering a colder trend with polar maritime air trending further south into the UK. 

[johnholmes]

Some indication from the EC 500 mb output but not really yet on Noaa, a bit surprised at that.

[BlueHedgehog074]

There does seem to be that tendency for the models to show more of a pronounced North-West to South-East alignment to the Jet Stream into next week through the UK from our West in the Northern Atlantic. Some really low upper heights getting well East into Scandinavia at times. A rough illustrated example from the 06Z GFS, 00Z ECMWF, 00Z UKMO and 00Z GEM models at 144 hours with the broad track of the Lows/Jet.

 

This leading to more widespread cold weather conditions over the UK from the North and West later into next week on many of those operational runs above. Although admittedly most of those solutions are easily outside of the more reliable closer time frame on the models, despite the similar solutions they show. But I think as long as some kind of favourable direction of the Jet Stream is maintained for colder weather conditions along with the Azores High staying pushed out far enough West/South-West (while also having the room to amplify at times), then some of that cold air to the North and West of the UK has a chance to flood quite far South and East at times.

For those preferring a milder solution, then it’s just hoping the Jet Stream takes more of a North-East path through, and to the North of, the UK instead for mid and late next week and the Low heights pushing East or South-East into Europe gets toned down thus allowing more room for the Azores High to build East/South-East over Europe. As John also talked about above, the latest 500mb NOAA anomaly charts showing minimal changes to the pattern over the UK. Maybe even a slight lessening of the North-West to South-East flow over the UK from the West on its 8 to 14 day outlook:

I would have said that apart from that, it feels like for now the chillier, and probably more cyclonic scenario, being the more likely solution. Have to see what the NOAA anomaly charts show later and whether they’ll update to reflect more of what the 7+ day operational models are showing deeper into next week. Otherwise the Azores High and the high heights may continue to hold more of its ground over/near the UK (especially Southern areas), than what a number of the operational models might have you believe. 

Still a chance of a wintry surprise for some later this Sunday into Monday, mostly for Northern UK high ground as that little Low from the West in the Atlantic runs into colder air to our North. Exact track, development and strength of Low liable to further changes, thus affecting the distribution of the rain, sleet and snow, and there may be some angry winds to watch out for, again especially for Northern and Western areas of the UK.

An example from the latest GFS run below showing the Low heading South-East through the middle portion of the UK from Western and Northern Ireland. Quite blowy I would imagine too for Western areas as the deep surface Low takes a while to fill out on clearance East of the UK. Some snow over parts of Northern and Central Scotland, which could fall to low(ish) levels at times, especially in heavier bursts, as the Low bumps into those cold 850 hPa temperatures over Scotland. Some of this sleet and snow getting dragged further South over Scotland and into Northern England, particularly for the hills, as we head into Monday. Some rain and showers, maybe still wintry over the hills, further South through Wales and the Midlands. 

 

Some interest regarding weather events to come, more so for the Northern UK areas. While unsettled conditions may (is worth addressing the ‘may’) start becoming more invasive over the course of the next few or so days, there is further prospects of some drier, brighter periods between the rain and showers. This particularly so over Southern areas of the UK as the Azores High does try to throw further ridges Eastwards towards us. This the case later into today, later Saturday into Sunday (before the little Low steals the show) and during Monday:

 

Edited January 27, 2022 by DiagonalRedLine

[phil nw.]

T60 fax showing the establishment of a more mobile Atlantic.

The rapid deepening low crossing the north of Scotland bring gales,rain and hill snow.Note the deep low just leaving eastern Canada.This is the forecasted north easter for the weekend expected to give heavy snowfall with some blizzard conditions over the states bordering the east coast of NA.

GFS image Sat 18z 

 

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, phil nw. said:

T60 fax showing the establishment of a more mobile Atlantic.

The rapid deepening low crossing the north of Scotland bring gales,rain and hill snow.Note the deep low just leaving eastern Canada.This is the forecasted north easter for the weekend expected to give heavy snowfall with some blizzard conditions over the states bordering the east coast of NA.

GFS image Sat 18z 

 

Can't say I normally want mobile Atlantic weather but after weeks of barely any, I'll take it just to shake things up. Rain in the winter helps offset potential spring summer droughts so it is welcome.

[phil nw.]

2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Can't say I normally want mobile Atlantic weather but after weeks of barely any, I'll take it just to shake things up. Rain in the winter helps offset potential spring summer droughts so it is welcome.

Looks like there's plenty of "weather" to come next week damian.

NH view

180mph jet winging across the Atlantic with polar air driving south east across the north of the uk and down into e.Europe.