Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[Don]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Snow meets the sea. Greek Islands earlier this week.  Reminds me on my days in Worthing ( March 21013 , I think )

C

You have special powers?! 

[sukayuonsensnow]

Update: TWO, which have been on the money with their seasonal forecast so far this winter, have considerably backtracked on their February forecast in their latest 14 day forecast update:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/14-day-uk-weather-forecast

I'd say there is a reasonable chance that away from high ground in northern parts that this winter is a bust now. Most/all long range forecasts are leaning towards the same outcomes for the next few weeks and if it is snow you want expect to be disappointed even with eye candy model runs here and there.

It's a shame given how extensive the cold and snow cover was in E/NE Europe early in the season, it just headed to Greece/Turkey rather than us.

[damianslaw]

12 minutes ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

Update: TWO, which have been on the money with their seasonal forecast so far this winter, have considerably backtracked on their February forecast in their latest 14 day forecast update:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/14-day-uk-weather-forecast

I'd say there is a reasonable chance that away from high ground in northern parts that this winter is a bust now. Most/all long range forecasts are leaning towards the same outcomes for the next few weeks and if it is snow you want expect to be disappointed even with eye candy model runs here and there.

It's a shame given how extensive the cold and snow cover was in E/NE Europe early in the season, it just headed to Greece/Turkey rather than us.

Mmm not so sure about this based on today's models, and latest trends, admittedly northern parts would in the firing line for snow, and could all change, but I don't foresee zero chance of cold and snow this February at all.

[sukayuonsensnow]

14 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Mmm not so sure about this based on today's models, and latest trends, admittedly northern parts would in the firing line for snow, and could all change, but I don't foresee zero chance of cold and snow this February at all.

Models can change back again, as they have continued to do.

Surprises could still happen in the north in the few weeks. Midlands southwards hope for a miracle.

Surprises could depend on the orientation/position of lows coming in via PM air, or evaporative cooling snow events.

There's too much of a consensus on the longer range forecasts going out for the next few weeks to be ignored now in favour of other possibilities. There is still a consensus of a mild/very mild end of February from the longer range forecasts.

Of course I could just be saying all this in the hope that the weather does the opposite to what I say. Maybe if cold lovers pray for rain and mild it will snow instead

[Crackerjack]

21 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

 

North westerly not much for us down in the south east manly dry chilly wind. For us we really need snowy Easterly

Meanwhile I’m depressing myself reading the New England thread on the USA’s equivalent to Netweather rack up pages every few minutes with the Buzz about the massive Nor’easter this weekend some throwing toys out the pram because they have been downgraded to only 10” of snow from 20” yesterday On the other hand some are now expecting 47” close to Boston MA  
 

im off to Inverness Feb 7th for my winter fix of snow so im praying some of our latest models are on the money if only for the Ski areas so I might at least get some pictures. I assume Highlands will do well won’t they in a PM ? Or maybe Fort william even better.  

[A Frayed Knot]

1 hour ago, Crackerjack said:

Meanwhile I’m depressing myself reading the New England thread on the USA’s equivalent to Netweather rack up pages every few minutes with the Buzz about the massive Nor’easter this weekend some throwing toys out the pram because they have been downgraded to only 10” of snow from 20” yesterday On the other hand some are now expecting 47” close to Boston MA  

Any link to the thread @Crackerjack please.

[Crackerjack]

3 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Any link to the thread @Crackerjack please.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56683-powerful-multi-regional-multi-faceted-east-coastal-storm-now-above-medium-confidence-jan-29-30th-ma-to-ne-with-snow-and-mix-combining-high-wind-and-tides-unusual-early-confidence/page/275/

Hope that works Frayed Knot looks like it links to the sub section I’m reading ie the New England regional thread. The software used looks very much like our site so it’s very easy on the eye. 
mind you if you think our Model output thread gets tense and bitter sometimes it’s really tame up to this lot OMG

[Bartlett High]

6 minutes ago, Crackerjack said:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56683-powerful-multi-regional-multi-faceted-east-coastal-storm-now-above-medium-confidence-jan-29-30th-ma-to-ne-with-snow-and-mix-combining-high-wind-and-tides-unusual-early-confidence/page/275/

Hope that works Frayed Knot looks like it links to the sub section I’m reading ie the New England regional thread. The software used looks very much like our site so it’s very easy on the eye. 
mind you if you think our Model output thread gets tense and bitter sometimes it’s really tame up to this lot OMG

Fascinating reading through....think I might become a member

[Penrith Snow]

Surprised by the lack of activity on this thread given the much improved output.

Event the Beeb on its week ahead forecast raised the prospect of snow next weekend 5th/6th Feb and you know how reserved they are. The BBC of course use ECM data.

I am expecting a big upgrade on the MetO MRF tomorrow to something more wintry, today's was just a reissue of the last few days, they clearly couldn't be bothered to update it.

Cold zonality is  clearly better for the north but on many occasions the South has done well from runners in the cold westerly flow.

Andy

 

[James1979]

On 26/01/2022 at 14:02, Froze were the Days said:

Very interesting! exactly the same here, I've been recording daily Winter records that go back to 1983/84 and last Winter I finally made the decision to stop doing them and just jotted down an analysis of each month (and noteworthy days) on the back of many recent winters with little variation or cold spells, saying that last February's cold week was probably the coldest here in Essex for daily maxes going back to Jan 1997 and I did think to myself if I should carry on...this winter has proved me correct.

Sad isnt it? I started in earnest in 1987 as an enthusiastic 8 year old-1987 was quite a year (back in Essex) even without THE windstorm so my interest was kick started in a big way that year and got bigger every year since to adulthood including going to Reading Uni to study meteorology but the last dozen years or so have been a continuous decline into less and less action in this part of the world, (smoothing out the fluctuations). The climate may be more allegedly more extreme elsewhere but proper variety and defined seasons have disappeared imo. What's there to be excited about here these days - no windstorms, barely any snow, dry as a bone mostly and no proper thunderstorms or very wimpy ones at best. 15/20 years ago and before, the weather was very changeable and active but now just a dull echo. A reflection of the modern world... but I digress. 

Over and out out.

Edited January 27, 2022 by James1979

[Penrith Snow]

Athens yesterday.

And many British Cities haven’t seen a flake.

You couldn’t make it up

Andy

[Penrith Snow]

11 minutes ago, James1979 said:

Sad isnt it? I started in earnest in 1987 as an enthusiastic 8 year old-1987 was quite a year (back in Essex) even without THE windstorm so my interest was kick started in a big way that year and got bigger every year since to adulthood including going to Reading Uni to study meteorology but the last dozen years or so have been a continuous decline into less and less action in this part of the world, (smoothing out the fluctuations). The climate may be more allegedly more extreme elsewhere but proper variety and defined seasons have disappeared imo. What's there to be excited about here these days - no windstorms, barely any snow, dry as a bone mostly and no proper thunderstorms or very wimpy ones at best. 15/20 years ago and before, the weather was very changeable and active but now just a dull echo. A reflection of the modern world... but I digress. 

Over and out out.

Same here, it’s not the hobby it used to be.

I now watch paint dry instead, it’s more varied  

This will be after 30 years waiting for snow.......

Andy

[Don]

18 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Surprised by the lack of activity on this thread given the much improved output.

I think most are exhausted after this long frustrating winter and find it difficult to be positive as a result, even with improved output!

[Mapantz]

20 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Event the Beeb on its week ahead forecast raised the prospect of snow next weekend 5th/6th Feb and you know how reserved they are.

BBC weather are no longer reserved in my opinion. They have become bullish over the last few years and it has come back to bite them on the rear many times.

[Norrance]

If Greece and Southern Turkey weren't bad enough did anyone see this from Amman in Jordan? Really rubbing it in!

https://t.co/puROUlwfKz

Edited January 27, 2022 by Norrance

[snowrye]

26 minutes ago, Don said:

I think most are exhausted after this long frustrating winter and find it difficult to be positive as a result, even with improved output!

Indeed, and with the high chance, that it will be watered down significantly, over the coming days. Boy what a huge disappointment winter has been, atlantic pretty much asleep, background signals all in favour, yet nothing.

[damianslaw]

We've had lengthy spells of fairly quiet conditions in UK sometimes over a year.. but the last 14 months really have been unusually quiet. I wouldn't say our climate is becoming more benign though.. plenty of extremes in terms of heat and rain last 10 years or so it's just that we such extremes seem to come courtesy off one unusual event. I agree our weather has become less fluid we don't seem to have the classic ridge trough pattern anymore just long periods of either wet or dry weather with less day to day week to week variety.  

[PiscesStar]

9 hours ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

Update: TWO, which have been on the money with their seasonal forecast so far this winter, have considerably backtracked on their February forecast in their latest 14 day forecast update:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/14-day-uk-weather-forecast

I'd say there is a reasonable chance that away from high ground in northern parts that this winter is a bust now. Most/all long range forecasts are leaning towards the same outcomes for the next few weeks and if it is snow you want expect to be disappointed even with eye candy model runs here and there.

It's a shame given how extensive the cold and snow cover was in E/NE Europe early in the season, it just headed to Greece/Turkey rather than us.

Which of course is now typical for us and a joke really 

5 hours ago, Norrance said:

If Greece and Southern Turkey weren't bad enough did anyone see this from Amman in Jordan? Really rubbing it in!

https://t.co/puROUlwfKz

That's taking the proverbial urine 

[PiscesStar]

8 hours ago, Crackerjack said:

Meanwhile I’m depressing myself reading the New England thread on the USA’s equivalent to Netweather rack up pages every few minutes with the Buzz about the massive Nor’easter this weekend some throwing toys out the pram because they have been downgraded to only 10” of snow from 20” yesterday On the other hand some are now expecting 47” close to Boston MA  
 

im off to Inverness Feb 7th for my winter fix of snow so im praying some of our latest models are on the money if only for the Ski areas so I might at least get some pictures. I assume Highlands will do well won’t they in a PM ? Or maybe Fort william even better.  

Are they taking the mickey? Those thieving greedy guts can offer up some of those that are starving for snow... Me for example, in the UK  

[Penrith Snow]

So it seems most of the NH at sometime this winter has seen a decent spell of cold and snow. Even the US which had a mild December.

Not the UK however, we are like the naughty school boy told he can’t have an ice cream.

I blame the University of East Anglia as they invented GW and if this winter is anything to go by it never left the UK!  

Andy

[mountain shadow]

11 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

So it seems most of the NH at sometime this winter has seen a decent spell of cold and snow. Even the US which had a mild December.

Not the UK however, we are like the naughty school boy told he can’t have an ice cream.

I blame the University of East Anglia as they invented GW and if this winter is anything to go by it never left the UK!  

Andy

We live in the absolute worst area for snow for our latitude and GW is making it worse.

Here's hoping the North Atlantic Drift gets cut off soon!

[Evening thunder]

On 25/01/2022 at 13:44, damianslaw said:

UK must be the cloudiest country in whole northern hemisphere during winter. Perhaps Iceland and Ireland beats us. 

 

On 25/01/2022 at 16:25, Downburst said:

There's this 

 

And this, more focused. Not good, but we know that. No use howling at the moon.

 

That first chart doesn't seem completely accurate to me.. suggests Blackpool gets >1200 of sun but it gets nearly 1600 hours. Might just be the resolution.

In winter, I've noticed that further east in Europe seems pretty prone to cold anticyclonic gloom. Just looking at a few cities on Wikipedia (so this assumes the Wikipedia climate tables are correct), and Blackpool gets more sun than Berlin on average from November-January. Warsaw only averages 33.6 hours in December, and Kiev averages 31 hours (Blackpool averages 49.3 hours). Also Moscow only averages 18 hours and it's on the same latitude as Edinburgh (49.1 hours).

Having said that, my experience up here this winter has been rather cloudy... Thought yesterday was a good day for here, some blue sky/sunny intervals... but the satellite showed we were still the cloudiest region of England (at least in the clearance behind the front that was clearing the south).
This morning it's -3C and sunny back home in Devon.. Cloudy and 6C up here in Lancaster. So many times it seems better back home, and they are also doing better for frosts. Had-5.3C the other day, not been that cold in Lancaster.

Edited January 28, 2022 by Evening thunder

[jules216]

Small ramp here, what a turnaround has this january turned out to be. The mean on 06.01 after record mild spell was +5. All was pointing out to a very mild month including CFS maps,weeklies etc. Now on 28.01 the mean is -2,6°C with relentless Frost where highest minima was not above -5! All the water reservoirs,lakes and streams are deep frozen. 

[Summer8906]

12 hours ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

Models can change back again, as they have continued to do.

Surprises could still happen in the north in the few weeks. Midlands southwards hope for a miracle.

Surprises could depend on the orientation/position of lows coming in via PM air, or evaporative cooling snow events.

There's too much of a consensus on the longer range forecasts going out for the next few weeks to be ignored now in favour of other possibilities. There is still a consensus of a mild/very mild end of February from the longer range forecasts.

Of course I could just be saying all this in the hope that the weather does the opposite to what I say. Maybe if cold lovers pray for rain and mild it will snow instead

 

April gives us a good a chance as any in the south now, I think.

As I said a couple of weeks ago, based on historical analogues I would expect Feb and March to be mostly mild, with one of the two months dry, and the other wet.

What often happens in these sorts of patterns is we get a late surprise in April. I'll go for settling snow in the south on around April 8th, and April to be somewhat chilly at times with classic 'April showers' NW-ly winds mixed with warmer sunnier periods.

Edited January 28, 2022 by Summer8906

[Methuselah]

Well, with 59-days of winter having already gone (and nae a single flake of snow), one of these predictions has to come off. Eventually. Right?

Edited January 28, 2022 by Ed Stone