Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[John88B]

I think there's a lot of unrealistic expectations of a British winter. Yes we've had a few severe winters over the previous hundred years but in general they're mild, damp and pretty drab. We're a tiny island on the edge of a massive ocean so it's to be expected.

People say our winters are becoming milder and maybe they are but they bang on as if the winters as recently as the 70s and 80s were constant snowy nirvana's. Trust me they weren't, they were in general pretty crap,I was there.

[cobbett]

The bbc weather app has always been showing crud weather for the last 10 days , maybe i'll just stick to that in future

[Rayth]

49 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Lol if you find the Covid thread depressing at times just take a flip to the MAD thread this morning. The models have finally and completely removed anything even remotely cold. After weeks of absolutely ridiculous ramping and literally tens of thousands of posts on how we’d be buried neck deep in snow I think the penny is about to drop. 

And here you go again with the sly digs in the bitter thread 

nobody has remotely wrote anything about being buried and even if they had it would be commenting on output (which is the purpose of the thread)  ,

 

I suggest you get back in your box unless you have something constructive to say ! And as for penny dropping , don’t try to suggest you knew what was coming , this was one of the most unpredictable model watching sagas for many a year 

[SteveB]

That's me done with model watching over Christmas! It  seems to be the way things are these day's, whether it's anything to do with global warming or not, the UK just can't get a decent cold spell. They are becoming as rare as hens teeth.

why o why can't we just catch a break - it's going to be hard to recover from this let down with the big day being involved.

[jvenge]

Interestingly overnight the ECM and GFS deliver boxing day snow for me after teasing me with runs showing 9 degrees at times. 

[Guest]

21 minutes ago, Rayth said:

And here you go again with the sly digs in the bitter thread 

nobody has remotely wrote anything about being buried and even if they had it would be commenting on output (which is the purpose of the thread)  ,

 

I suggest you get back in your box unless you have something constructive to say ! And as for penny dropping , don’t try to suggest you knew what was coming , this was one of the most unpredictable model watching sagas for many a year 

Lol, are you sure? There’s thousands of posts as evidence ramping up cold weather when it was never in a reliable time frame. In fact it’s quite possibly the most excessive and continuous model ramping ever seen. I’m sure plenty of others would agree too.  

[cobbett]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Lol, are you sure? There’s thousands of posts as evidence ramping up cold weather when it was never in a reliable time frame. In fact it’s quite possibly the most excessive and continuous model ramping ever seen. I’m sure plenty of others would agree too.  

Not sure why people have a problem with guys ramping up weather on a weather forum - it's a hobby (for most), if you want something more balanced just check the Met outlook

[Woldsedge]

I think the MAD thread will become much quieter very soon now, as whatever happens over the coming days the period beyond looks pretty ‘nailed on’ and an absolute horror show of mild crud. Nearly all the models are in agreement on this one. Enjoy your christmasses whatever the weather and keep yourselves safe

[jvenge]

2 minutes ago, cobbett said:

Not sure why people have a problem with guys ramping up weather on a weather forum - it's a hobby (for most), if you want something more balanced just check the Met outlook

I think there is a difference between expressing interest in a preferred outcome and ramping. By all means if a model shows snow like the GFS Op did for 3 runs yesterday, say it. I did. But point out the GEFS were never so bullish. EPS and ECM Op not at all. Don't start disparaging models you praised a week ago, etc. 

[cobbett]

9 minutes ago, jvenge said:

I think there is a difference between expressing interest in a preferred outcome and ramping. By all means if a model shows snow like the GFS Op did for 3 runs yesterday, say it. I did. But point out the GEFS were never so bullish. EPS and ECM Op not at all. Don't start disparaging models you praised a week ago, etc. 

yeah but there were plenty of non bullish posts as well so take your pick - maybe posts can be moderated to remove excessive "!!!!!!!!" though

[Staffmoorlands]

1 hour ago, John88B said:

I think there's a lot of unrealistic expectations of a British winter. Yes we've had a few severe winters over the previous hundred years but in general they're mild, damp and pretty drab. We're a tiny island on the edge of a massive ocean so it's to be expected.

People say our winters are becoming milder and maybe they are but they bang on as if the winters as recently as the 70s and 80s were constant snowy nirvana's. Trust me they weren't, they were in general pretty crap,I was there.

The winters of the 70’s and 80’s were much colder here. Frosts from October and the first snows from November. It got milder from 1989 and has never recovered apart from a few winters such as 95/96, 2010 and 2013.

[Rayth]

51 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Lol, are you sure? There’s thousands of posts as evidence ramping up cold weather when it was never in a reliable time frame. In fact it’s quite possibly the most excessive and continuous model ramping ever seen. I’m sure plenty of others would agree too.  

Im sure , you are contradicting yourself , its called the model output thread , so if they see snow , they comment on it , there isn't a 'reliable time frame' thread , why don't you start one? 

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just now, Rayth said:

Im sure , you are contradicting yourself , its called the model output thread , so if they see snow , they comment on it , there isn't a 'reliable time frame' thread , why don't you start one? 

There was!!!!! a lot of ramping!!!!! though by the usual!!!!! posters!!!!!

My discovery of the ignore button has helped my enjoyment of the thread significantly.

[sukayuonsensnow]

Hello all!

I will still keep an eye on the models over the next few days, however it is worth noting that long range and seasonal forecasts were indicating a mild end of year/start of January. Anything that would have transpired over the Christmas period snow wise was going to fall into 'nice surprise' territory for me.

Models even at this range are still flipping for Boxing Day onwards, although unsettled (especially in western areas) is more of a recurrent theme.

We have to look at a potential for a SSW event early-mid January, which would (according to the seasonal forecasts) push very cold air west towards us for the first half of February, perhaps slightly sooner. February would look similar to last February, just a question of whether we get more of a direct impact from that easterly assuming the SSW happens.

[Sceptical]

19 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

The winters of the 70’s and 80’s were much colder here. Frosts from October and the first snows from November. It got milder from 1989 and has never recovered apart from a few winters such as 95/96, 2010 and 2013.

Decades ago, the snow window for parts of Scotland was September through to May. In recent times thats reduced to typically cover the period from December through to March.

UK winters are only going one way and have been since the 90s.

Let's move on from the 1947/1962 dream year's. They've gone.....

Edited December 22, 2021 by Sceptical

[Rayth]

17 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

There was!!!!! a lot of ramping!!!!! though by the usual!!!!! posters!!!!!

My discovery of the ignore button has helped my enjoyment of the thread significantly.

At those time frames its legitimate to get exited , that will never ever change on here , what i find interesting is that its called all these names , the mad thread , the silly thread, yet every page is read by these people  

[SussexSnowman]

2 hours ago, John88B said:

I think there's a lot of unrealistic expectations of a British winter. Yes we've had a few severe winters over the previous hundred years but in general they're mild, damp and pretty drab. We're a tiny island on the edge of a massive ocean so it's to be expected.

People say our winters are becoming milder and maybe they are but they bang on as if the winters as recently as the 70s and 80s were constant snowy nirvana's. Trust me they weren't, they were in general pretty crap,I was there.

Absolutely agree. My parents says the same thing of that period that its a huge conception Britain's winters of yesterday were always snowy. The only winter I can recall where there was more than 1 snow event or more than 2 days of cold weather in a row was over the winter of 2010/11 and the weatherbomb of Feb 2018.  Snow days are rarities down my neck of the woods and usually as quickly as the snow lays it thaws by the evening. I'd gladly take just 1 snow day and consider that good fortune. Last winter I didn't actually mind. Had quite a lot of single digit temp days and whilst just out of reach of the snow, I'd take a dry winter over a damp squib winter. 

We'll be either fortunate or unfortunate (depending on one's preference) to see winters of 1947 or 1963 again. UK just has the rotten luck of being out of reach for the prolonged cold and first in line for the weather fronts off the Atlantic. 

It was fun getting slightly excited by the outside chance of a white Xmas and that's all it was. Was never a nailed on certainty. I think there's too much of a lofty expectation that Britain are 'due' a prolonged cold winter from certain corners. 

Edited December 22, 2021 by SussexSnowman
Grammar

[Wingman Blue]

38 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

The winters of the 70’s and 80’s were much colder here. Frosts from October and the first snows from November. It got milder from 1989 and has never recovered apart from a few winters such as 95/96, 2010 and 2013.

Agree entirely. If you’re unfortunate to live close to a southern tidal area, you won’t get many snowy nirvanas but even central Birmingham saw some harsh winters between 62 and 89.

It was a regular news bulletin in the 1970’s that the StaffordshireMoorlands were cut off, all roads blocked.

Even remember Christmas Eve 1968 (I think), at my grandparents house in Gravesend Kent, watching the snow coming down thick and fast to a depth of 10” (I used my school ruler to measure it).

’63 was something else, I was off school for over a month, for a time even the buses weren’t running in suburban Birmingham. They were tipping the coal wagons at Saltley gas works and the load would come out as a single solid lump, sometimes with the wagon floor still attached!

Yes, winters before the twenty-year warm blip from 88, really were better!

 

[ChannelThunder]

3 hours ago, Alderc said:

Lol if you find the Covid thread depressing at times just take a flip to the MAD thread this morning. The models have finally and completely removed anything even remotely cold. After weeks of absolutely ridiculous ramping and literally tens of thousands of posts on how we’d be buried neck deep in snow I think the penny is about to drop. 

Today's model agreement for mild has been coming for about 3 or 4 days, yet the model thread yesterday almost convinced me I was missing something.

All very subdued in there today at the final realisation it's game over.

Credit to the Met Office for not once setting any false expectations, as much as DIY home forecasters try to shut their realistic forecasts down on social media by posting unrealistic and ridiculous 'snow depth charts'

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, Rayth said:

Im sure , you are contradicting yourself , its called the model output thread , so if they see snow , they comment on it , there isn't a 'reliable time frame' thread , why don't you start one? 

It's the selective nature that's the issue. No denying that quite a few charts over the last week showed the chance of some snow - but there were also plenty that didn't. Do people comment on those? Not really. They just get tossed to the side, with talk of the next run, here P26 of the GFS with -500c uppers, the 12z is a big run yada yada.

I much prefer the forum during spring, summer and early autumn. Posts are far more sensible and much less mud slinging goes on. It's been nice to take a bit of a back seat and let the kids throw their toys around. 

[Weatherman_93]

Lots of mild weather on the horizon down this end. Lovely stuff 

[Sunny76]

3 hours ago, John88B said:

I think there's a lot of unrealistic expectations of a British winter. Yes we've had a few severe winters over the previous hundred years but in general they're mild, damp and pretty drab. We're a tiny island on the edge of a massive ocean so it's to be expected.

People say our winters are becoming milder and maybe they are but they bang on as if the winters as recently as the 70s and 80s were constant snowy nirvana's. Trust me they weren't, they were in general pretty crap,I was there.

Yes, my uncle tells me the same. 
 

I always use him as a point of reference, as he was born in 1948. 
 

My grandmother used to talk about 1947 being very cold, but the Christmas period of 1946 was average to mild.

The period of 1962/63 was mild before Boxing Day, then it turned very cold, so technically a cold Christmas if you factor in Boxing Day.

Since then, only 1978/79, 81-82, 84/85, 85/86, 86/87, 90/91, 95/96, 2008/9, 2009/10, 2010/11, 2012/13, and to some degree 2020/21 were cold or very cold. 
 

There’s also a batch of winters that gave us a generous dump of snow such as 93/94, 2005/06(depending where you were) the early part of 96/97, 1970/71(white Christmas in many parts), and 2000/01(snow just after Christmas).

I might have left a few other winters out, but my uncle said the 70s were mostly mild after Christmas 1970 until around 1977 or so, and the cluster of snowy winters in the mid 80s gave the impression it was a regular occurrence back then. Similar to the generation who were kids in the mid to late 2000s, probably have higher expectations, but since 2013/14 it’s not been a regular feature.

Despite climate change, it will still snow,  but  that set aside, we are a damp island on the edge of the North Atlantic. Another reason we sometimes get a string of poor days during our summers in between any hot or dry sunny periods.

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Staffmoorlands said:

The winters of the 70’s and 80’s were much colder here. Frosts from October and the first snows from November. It got milder from 1989 and has never recovered apart from a few winters such as 95/96, 2010 and 2013.

It started in December 1987.

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Sceptical said:

Decades ago, the snow window for parts of Scotland was September through to May. In recent times thats reduced to typically cover the period from December through to March.

UK winters are only going one way and have been since the 90s.

Let's move on from the 1947/1962 dream year's. They've gone.....

Correction, since 1987/88. 

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Sceptical said:

Decades ago, the snow window for parts of Scotland was September through to May. In recent times thats reduced to typically cover the period from December through to March.

UK winters are only going one way and have been since the 90s.

Let's move on from the 1947/1962 dream year's. They've gone.....

A dream which has been ongoing since those years lol.