Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[jvenge]

2 minutes ago, Seasonal Trim said:

Some people need a day or two cool off in the other thread.

Where are all the decent posters from days gone by?

I know the Model thread has always been a bit trying during Winter in the past, but it seems hyper annoying this year!

Most are still there, but they get drowned out. I suggest you make use of the ignore list, as it is much easier to read the thread. I personally like to read what BlueArmy and CreweCold have to say, because although they want a certain outcome, they don't overstate the chances of it.

[Seasonal Trim]

Just now, jvenge said:

Most are still there, but they get drowned out. I suggest you make use of the ignore list, as it is much easier to read the thread. I personally like to read what BlueArmy and CreweCold have to say, because although they want a certain outcome, they don't overstate the chances of it.

I've got loads on ignore. Can't keep up with the influx of ott posts though. 

[NeilN]

I'm always dubious of TV weather broadcasts, but where is this mild weather come from? Is this official or just them using some dodgy model? 

I know living down here in the South West we're out the running, but there's got to be a good chance the Midlands has a shot. 

[jvenge]

4 minutes ago, NeilN said:

I'm always dubious of TV weather broadcasts, but where is this mild weather come from? Is this official or just them using some dodgy model? 

I know living down here in the South West we're out the running, but there's got to be a good chance the Midlands has a shot. 

It depends which model runs and which models are looked at. As an example....

But the mild air is not outlandish for your general area, as you can see.

 

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

@stainesbloke @Polar Maritime

Model latency is the delay between a reading from the source of the starting data, e.g. a satellite or observational buoy, and that data being fed into an operational or ensemble run. Here's an extract from a GFS paper:

NOAA Direct Broadcast Data Initiative to Meet NWP Latency Requirements
The volume and coverage of polar-orbiting satellite data available to NCEP’s operational data assimilation systems depends on both the number of occupied orbits (orbital configuration) and the data latency. Both factors are critical issues for determining the accuracy and timing of NCEP’s numerical guidance. Numerical guidance is foundational to all NOAA’s forecast and warning services and future Weather Ready Nation objectives.
Data latency is critical for the use of satellite data in numerical weather prediction forecast models. The use of direct readout over the Northern Hemisphere can improve latency of sounder data to less than 30 minutes, and as low as 15 minutes.
Link: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiBr8KbovX0AhXIgVwKHaE1A0oQFnoECAMQAQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cgms-info.org%2Fdocuments%2Fdocuments-cgms%2F2067741.pdf&usg=AOvVaw1kEDRwP9GrKMjKNg5EVTYO

Thank you   I think I understand (though can be a bit thick sometimes)

Edited December 21, 2021 by stainesbloke

[Guest]

Where’s all this cold weather then? I can’t even see a frost on the models for this part of world in the next week. One month of winter done, hopefully the rest carries on like this. Models showing showing remarkably mild temps in the next few days, might even see 13-14C 

[Staffmoorlands]

1 hour ago, NeilN said:

I'm always dubious of TV weather broadcasts, but where is this mild weather come from? Is this official or just them using some dodgy model? 

I know living down here in the South West we're out the running, but there's got to be a good chance the Midlands has a shot. 

BBC forecasts are not the best. Generally recorded or using old data.

Follow the Met Office on You Tube/ Twitter - I find their forecasts fairly accurate and their weekly 10 day forecast is great for detail

[RJBingham]

Ramp?

[Freeze]

2 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

Ramp?

Imagine that, dry all of December then decides to rain on Xmas day.

[Puddy Galore]

30 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Where’s all this cold weather then? I can’t even see a frost on the models for this part of world in the next week. One month of winter done, hopefully the rest carries on like this. Models showing showing remarkably mild temps in the next few days, might even see 13-14C 

Neither of our comments are model related really so we are both in the wrong thread, however, I have to say I find it really sad to think you would deny yours, or anyone’s children for that matter, the fun and games associated with frolicking in the snow and building snowmen.  I was 3 coming 4 years old 1962/3 and spent many a happy hour building snowmen in the back garden with my father - so much fun, which is how it should be. 

[NEVES SCREAMER]

Well i have to go to my elderly parents house xmas day morning. Then my sisters. Then to my girlfriend's house for Xmas dinner.  Last thing i want is 6 inches of snow and traffic chaos. You know what it's like in the UK. One flake of snow and everything falls apart. Notwithstanding covid! Personally hoping for a mild xmas.  If it wants to snow about 5th January im all for it! 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

On 21/12/2021 at 19:26, Snowycat said:

Neither of our comments are model related really so we are both in the wrong thread, however, I have to say I find it really sad to think you would deny yours, or anyone’s children for that matter, the fun and games associated with frolicking in the snow and building snowmen.  I was 3 coming 4 years old 1962/3 and spent many a happy hour building snowmen in the back garden with my father - so much fun, which is how it should be. 

In this country, proper cold days are relatively few and far between nowadays.

Perhaps if cold winters were still as common as they used to be, then people would be more accustomed to the cold so wouldn't whinge as much when it does get that way? I can't help but notice that those who complain about the cold are often (but not always) younger adults. Though there are of course exceptions, as I am a younger adult who doesn't mind the cold. 

Not at all criticising as we are all different. Just an observation.

Edited December 21, 2021 by Weather Enthusiast91

[NEVES SCREAMER]

51 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

In this country, proper cold days are relatively few and far between nowadays.

Perhaps if cold winters were still as common as they used to be, then people would be more accustomed to the cold so wouldn't whinge as much when it does get that way? I can't help but notice that those who complain about the cold are often (but not always) younger adults. Though there are of course exceptions, as I am a younger adult who doesn't mind the cold. 

Not at all criticising as we are all different. Just an observation.

Well i am what is termed a 'mildie'. But i wish no one on this forum any ill. To me it is what the forum title is all about . 'Banter'. I enjoy the fun we have on here and the constant bickering about preferred weather types. I love it. It makes me laugh with the humorous retorts.  Long may it continue.

[Roger J Smith]

7 hours ago, RJBingham said:

Just when you think you've seen it all, you get weather enthusiasts trying to lecture professional forecasters, honestly, it's the forum that keeps on giving 

in the meantime, anyone know the December CET so far?  

It is sitting around 6.0 C although they often reduce these preliminary values by 0.2-0.4 at end of month, so more likely around 5.7. I would say it's around the top 25% or just into the second highest quarter of all past years at this point and of those most similar, the usual end point is around 5.0 to 5.5 which is slightly above any normal from most recent thirty years. There have not been a lot of exceptionally mild days, just a near complete absence of cold ones. 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

On 21/12/2021 at 23:58, NEVES SCREAMER said:

Well i am what is termed a 'mildie'. But i wish no one on this forum any ill. To me it is what the forum title is all about . 'Banter'. I enjoy the fun we have on here and the constant bickering about preferred weather types. I love it. It makes me laugh with the humorous retorts.  Long may it continue.

Don't get me wrong, I love it too.

This is my favourite thread on the whole forum. 

 

[The Enforcer]

The trouble is, most aren't even looking at the problem. The problem is that in winter there's cold countries, then there's mild countries, then there's a tonne of crap, and then there's the UK. It's an unfair game. Every winter many are trying to find a direct replacement for 1962/63 and I tell you we can't do it. Now, what we might be able to do is recreate elements of it within a mild winter aggregate.

[Evie Aviation]

Now here’s a thread I can get behind!

the emotions in the mod thread gives me palpitations 

[winterfreak]

After a week or so of ‘stunning Synoptics’ and ‘very rare Northern Hemisphere’ profiles for cold it falls apart, Again!!!! Laughable. Literally the worst place on our latitude for Winter weather. The worst 

[jvenge]

4 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

After a week or so of ‘stunning Synoptics’ and ‘very rare Northern Hemisphere’ profiles for cold it falls apart, Again!!!! Laughable. Literally the worst place on our latitude for Winter weather. The worst 

I suppose Ireland could be a little worse?  

[winterfreak]

Just now, jvenge said:

I suppose Ireland could be a little worse?  

Only just

[Guest]

Lol if you find the Covid thread depressing at times just take a flip to the MAD thread this morning. The models have finally and completely removed anything even remotely cold. After weeks of absolutely ridiculous ramping and literally tens of thousands of posts on how we’d be buried neck deep in snow I think the penny is about to drop. 

[Lincs Observation]

10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Lol if you find the Covid thread depressing at times just take a flip to the MAD thread this morning. The models have finally and completely removed anything even remotely cold. After weeks of absolutely ridiculous ramping and literally tens of thousands of posts on how we’d be buried neck deep in snow I think the penny is about to drop. 

There was some serious disagreement there yesterday, and some dummy throwing, some well respected posters who defended their position with vigorous abandonment will definitely have egg on the face this morning for sure. it was all a little too embarrassing in my opinion.

 

LO

[Bald Eagle]

15 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Lol if you find the Covid thread depressing at times just take a flip to the MAD thread this morning. The models have finally and completely removed anything even remotely cold. After weeks of absolutely ridiculous ramping and literally tens of thousands of posts on how we’d be buried neck deep in snow I think the penny is about to drop. 

I dropped into the covid thread once ....just to see and wow now that is unhealthy. Had to chuckle on the visit to MAD. The weather will do what it wants regardless of which computer programme you support  

[mb018538]

17 minutes ago, Lincs Observation said:

There was some serious disagreement there yesterday, and some dummy throwing, some well respected posters who defended their position with vigorous abandonment will definitely have egg on the face this morning for sure. it was all a little too embarrassing in my opinion.

 

LO

It was never completely nailed on at any point, and there was never 100% agreement on any outcome. Milder air washing over was always a very realistic possibility, however much a very large percentage of posters tried to deny it. Usual snow rules now in force - head up a mountain somewhere.

At least we've passed the shortest day!

[Sunny76]

Feels cold enough and seasonal as I commute to work this morning. Currently -1c in West London.

Whatever happens, cold or mild, just enjoy the festive period and make the best of it.