Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[SLEETY]

wheres the low gone on gfs now it not even a feature!

[sheikhy]

I actually think a middle ground would be a jackpot for us but gfs aint even a middle ground!i dunno what the hell to make of the gfs!!looks so weird lol!!!

[Allseasons-Si]

Well,...either the gfs is wrong or the ECM is wrong,..or a half way house come the time...

i think one of them needs a safe house

but honestly fl is 96>,...no more

just look at the difference between the gfs at 18z 120 v ECM 12z 120

the discrepancies lay where this block to our NE will form,..the stronger the block,...the more it will hold the Atlantic at bay,...simples.

 

Edited December 1, 2021 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Dennis]

i prefer to see after weekend .....  the block against the little thumb  

[Anthony Burden]

Late comment regarding GFS 18 z looks the same idea of Atlantic taking total command as 12z 

going to be some very interesting charts in the morning who will back down or will it be a draw when 

both ECM and GFS find away to find middle ground,we wait and hope for an ECM knockout against GFS.

[Sweatyman]

On 01/12/2021 at 22:35, Anthony Burden said:

Late comment regarding GFS 18 z looks the same idea of Atlantic taking total command as 12z 

going to be some very interesting charts in the morning who will back down or will it be a draw when 

both ECM and GFS find away to find middle ground,we wait and hope for an ECM knockout against GFS.

Bet they'll all be hopelessly bad as they  usually are on the 00's

[ICE COLD]

God knows what the gfs is doing looks so different to the ECM and UKMO at T120 it’s unbelievable. 
 

This at day 5 in 2021 . It’ll probably be a blend of ECM and UKMO , I would of though 

Edited December 1, 2021 by Mapantz

[Allseasons-Si]

Scrap the gfs as it doesn't tie in with the EPS/cpc anomalies.

[Updated_Weather]

Updated info from Marco —- 

EC/GFS signalling a strong #SPV stratospheric polar vortex

GFS trying to 'couple' this strength with our tropospheric #jetstream it seems- its forecasts show strong zonal flow/deep lows heading our way

EC ensembles similar, but Op run keener for surface Scandi high to take over

[ICE COLD]

I know it’s the gfs and it’s in FI but wow look at the high pressure . 

[bluearmy]

19 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Updated info from Marco —- 

EC/GFS signalling a strong #SPV stratospheric polar vortex

GFS trying to 'couple' this strength with our tropospheric #jetstream it seems- its forecasts show strong zonal flow/deep lows heading our way

EC ensembles similar, but Op run keener for surface Scandi high to take over

Bit weird 

the low is prett much in the same place op and mean 

the isobars will generally revert closer to climatology by day 10 

I don’t think he sometimes does himself any favours ….

 

Edited December 1, 2021 by bluearmy

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

I know it’s the gfs and it’s in FI but wow look at the high pressure . 

Perfect illustration how a scandi upper ridge can exist with a strong tpv upstream 

[ICE COLD]

The pv is gonna get mangled here . Stunning chart 

[Snowman.]

6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The pv is gonna get mangled here . Stunning chart 

Don't think I've ever seen a high that strong before.

Also is that a hurricane heading straight for portugal??

Edited December 1, 2021 by Snowman.

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Perfect illustration how a scandi upper ridge can exist with a strong tpv upstream 

Yes you never know it can still fall right even with a strong pv . Maybe it will this year . It gets even more bonkers . 1055 high over scandy

[ICE COLD]

5 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Don't think I've ever seen a high that strong before.

Also is that a hurricane heading straigh for portugal??

I’d didn’t notice until you said but looks that way ? Lol . Now thats what you call a bonkers gfs FI . A deep freeze a few days on from this . 

Edited December 1, 2021 by ICE COLD

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yes you never know it can still fall right even with a strong pv . Maybe it will this year . It gets even more bonkers . 1055 high over scandy

It’s just the madness of the gfs op at two weeks …….. we could draw stuff that would be more likely !

[damianslaw]

9 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I know it’s the gfs and it’s in FI but wow look at the high pressure . 

From bowling lows to a mighty block.. what is it eating?

[damianslaw]

5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yes you never know it can still fall right even with a strong pv . Maybe it will this year . It gets even more bonkers . 1055 high over scandy

It may well be on the money signs are the block to the NE will hold and we could see a blocked cold second half to December despite the strength of the PV. 2021 has not been a normal year Atlantic wise we've had long periods when it has been absent, sudden very wet periods, storm arwen was an oddity as well.

[damianslaw]

Looking nearer timeframe GFS18 z so different to ECM and UKMO at 96 hr timeframe it smashes the Atlantic through the block to the NE. Who do I rate when it comes to blocking to the NE? Gfs the least...

[PiscesStar]

22 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

From bowling lows to a mighty block.. what is it eating?

... Three weetabix

[SLEETY]

Utterly woeful performance from gfs,brings the low back again at 120 after  not showing it last night,and vast differences in the pressure map over Scandi,ukmo looks wrong at t144 the way it blows the low up

[Battleground Snow]

UKMO and GFS at 144.

GFS looks much improved on last night.

Could do with the lows not phasing on the ukmo and becoming a bigger system which delays it's movement south.

[tight isobar]

This monster LP is becoming a progressive feature now via all suites... and would not only bring notable weather, but have a massive impact on the overall prognosis/evolution after!!. Firm eyes on this developing Synoptics!@ukmo 144

[tight isobar]

The Canadian modelling the split flow well. And highlights the uk literally on boundary line. And noting why the models are struggling from this juncture,with make or fake Synoptics. Still a few days of deciphering on this. And the outcome could be vastly different by the time we begin to achieve some sort of cross model agreement.96 hrs is probably about where to look for certification. After atm it’s baby gabble!- on we march      Edit; the Canadian also firing up the intense system, we are slowly gaining now headed towards some ironing out via the models.. the weekend I think will be the maker/breaker for going forwards. 

Edited December 2, 2021 by tight isobar