Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A more unsettled pattern from later this month

____________________

Wednesday 19 January to – Sunday 23 January

Patchy rain at times in Scotland, dry elsewhere

On Wednesday high pressure is stationed west of Northern Ireland while there is a low over Scandinavia. The high drifts to the south-east over the next few days to centre to the south of the Republic of Ireland by Friday and then over the English Channel on Sunday. Meanwhile the low pressure over Scandinavia is expected to move south-east to western Russia by the weekend.

Wednesday will start dry for all regions, apart from Scotland with some isolated showers which will largely die out in the evening. Thursday will be a mainly fair day for most parts although some further showers may affect the Northern Isles. Friday looks similar but the risk of light rain is over the Western Isles. Temperatures over the latter part of the working week are near average overall.

Over the weekend conditions remain dry for Northern Ireland, Wales and England. England may get some fog in places that could be slow to lift. Scotland will see some patchy rain early on Saturday, mainly affecting the western and northern half of the country. Further patchy light rain looks likely over Scotland later on Sunday, but it will be dry elsewhere. Weekend temperatures should be near average.

Monday 24 January to – Sunday 30 January

Risk of becoming more unsettled from the weekend

Early next week high pressure will be centred over the country for a time. Later on, and over the weekend, the high could retreat further south-west into the Atlantic. This would bring the country under the influence of the Atlantic lows with occasional fronts driven across.

The first half of the week looks dry for most parts but again some rain may push across Scotland at times. There will be a risk of fog over the southern half of the country. Thursday and Friday may see further light rain at times over Scotland while the rest of the country should remain dry. Temperatures should be near to or slightly above average for the working week.

Over the weekend things are getting more uncertain but pressure should fall over Scandinavia while the high is favoured south west of the United Kingdom. This pattern may allow some bouts of rain to affect the country at times, but the biggest risk would be over northern areas. Temperatures should be around average over the weekend.

Monday 31 January to – Sunday 13 February

Seasonal temperatures; windy at times

Into February, low pressure looks most likely over Iceland and Scandinavia, with high pressure over the eastern Atlantic extending over western Europe. This would maintain the near seasonal temperatures for most parts. It will be windy over Northern Ireland, Scotland and northern England at times. Spells of rain could reach all parts of the country at times, but the wetter weather is most likely to be over Northern Ireland and Scotland.

Into the second week of February, the model performance remains poor, keeping confidence low. We think high pressure over the north-east Atlantic extending to Iberia with low pressure near Iceland and northern Scandinavia is most likely. This would maintain the near seasonal temperatures for most parts, although the western half of England, Wales and Northern Ireland may be slightly milder. It will be windy at times over Northern Ireland, Scotland and northern England.

The latter half of the forecast does remain a little uncertain. In early February the low pressure could be a stronger feature, pushing the high pressure further away. This would bring even more unsettled weather to all regions.

By the second week of February, we could have high pressure over Europe, bringing a drier, less windy pattern. The polar vortex remains strong over the next few weeks. This maintains our belief that no sustained cold periods are likely into mid-February.

Further ahead

We still need to pin down the pattern in February. We will also look a further week ahead to see if there is a chance for the more unsettled weather to continue.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Don]

As you were!

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 25 Jan - Thursday 3 Feb

A largely cloudy start to this period for all, with perhaps some isolated fog forming under any clear skies in the south, otherwise largely dry and fine here. After a possibly brighter but colder start in the north, rain arrives across the northwest and is perhaps accompanied by some strong winds. Temperatures are likely to be close to average in the south, whereas milder in the north. Settled conditions looking to continue to dominate through the period, however, rain or showers at times for the north and northwest, with some stronger winds, mainly restricted to the far north, although possibly unsettled conditions sinking south at times. Heading into February, this settled theme is likely to remain, with drier than average conditions for most.

Friday 4 Feb - Friday 18 Feb

Early February is likely to see a continuation of a north/south split with more settled and cloudy weather expected in the south, and generally drier than average, while the north will be more changeable, milder, with some spells of rain. There is an increased likelihood of more unsettled conditions becoming established, with the northwest likely to be the wettest area, but showers or longer spells of rain may spread to most areas at times, with the southeast likely to be the driest. Spells of strong winds are likely to develop more widely at times. Temperatures likely to be near or slightly above average although short lived colder interludes are possible. Any snow likely to be restricted to high ground in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[mountain shadow]

9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Tuesday 25 Jan - Thursday 3 Feb

A largely cloudy start to this period for all, with perhaps some isolated fog forming under any clear skies in the south, otherwise largely dry and fine here. After a possibly brighter but colder start in the north, rain arrives across the northwest and is perhaps accompanied by some strong winds. Temperatures are likely to be close to average in the south, whereas milder in the north. Settled conditions looking to continue to dominate through the period, however, rain or showers at times for the north and northwest, with some stronger winds, mainly restricted to the far north, although possibly unsettled conditions sinking south at times. Heading into February, this settled theme is likely to remain, with drier than average conditions for most.

Friday 4 Feb - Friday 18 Feb

Early February is likely to see a continuation of a north/south split with more settled and cloudy weather expected in the south, and generally drier than average, while the north will be more changeable, milder, with some spells of rain. There is an increased likelihood of more unsettled conditions becoming established, with the northwest likely to be the wettest area, but showers or longer spells of rain may spread to most areas at times, with the southeast likely to be the driest. Spells of strong winds are likely to develop more widely at times. Temperatures likely to be near or slightly above average although short lived colder interludes are possible. Any snow likely to be restricted to high ground in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

The fat lady is warming up her tonsils me thinks...

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 27 Jan - Saturday 5 Feb

Rain will clear in the far southeast during the day, however blustery showers will continue for northeastern areas, with a risk of some gales. Otherwise, a fine and dry start to the period with variable cloud, this bringing settled conditions across the south with overnight frost and some morning fog patches in areas with higher elevation. Temperatures likely to be close to average in the south, whereas milder in the north, trending slightly above normal. Settled conditions looking to continue to dominate through the remainder of January, however, rain or showers at times for the north and northwest, with occasional strong winds here. Heading into February there is an increasing likelihood of more unsettled conditions.

Sunday 6 Feb - Sunday 20 Feb

Early February is likely to see a continuation of a north/south split with more settled and cloudy weather expected in the south, and generally drier than average, while the north will be more changeable, milder, with some spells of rain. There is an increased likelihood of more unsettled conditions becoming established, with the northwest likely to be the wettest area, but showers or longer spells of rain may spread to most areas at times, with the southeast likely to be the driest. Spells of strong winds are likely to develop more widely at times. Temperatures likely to be near or slightly above average although short lived colder interludes are possible. Any snow likely to be restricted to high ground in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[Summer Sun]

Friday 28 Jan - Sunday 6 Feb

A windier and wetter start for the north on Friday as showers arrive from the west with some gale force winds possible. Otherwise, a fine and dry start to the period with variable cloud, this bringing settled conditions across the south with patchy overnight frost and some morning fog patches. Winds set to remain light to moderate in the south and east, but windier elsewhere. Temperatures likely to be close to average in the south, whereas milder in the north, trending above normal. Fairly quiet conditions looking to continue through the remainder of January, however, rain or showers are likely at times for the north and northwest, with occasional strong winds here. Heading into February there is an increasing likelihood of more widespread unsettled conditions.

Monday 7 Feb - Monday 21 Feb

Early February is likely to see a continuation of a north/south split with more settled and cloudy weather expected in the south, and generally drier than average, while the north will be more changeable, milder, with some spells of rain. There is an increased likelihood of more unsettled conditions becoming established, with the northwest likely to be the wettest area, but showers or longer spells of rain may spread to most areas at times, but with the southeast likely to be the driest. Spells of strong winds are likely to develop more widely at times. Temperatures likely to be near or slightly above average although short lived colder interludes are possible. Any snow likely to be restricted to high ground in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Outlook

• Some rain at times
• Driest in the south
• Relatively mild

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/60102933

 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 29 Jan - Monday 7 Feb

At the start of this period, there is a general north-south split to the weather, with wetter and windier conditions in the north, and drier and cloudier conditions in the south. More organised rain is expected to push southeastwards through Saturday, with brighter spells following. For the remainder of January, more showery and windy weather is likely to continue in the northwest with possible wintry showers over the higher ground of Scotland, whereas the south and southeast is likely to remain dry. Temperatures are likely to be close to or slightly milder than average. Heading into February, the north-south split of weather is likely to continue in the beginning, while there is an increasing likelihood of more widespread unsettled conditions later.

Tuesday 8 Feb - Tuesday 22 Feb

Moving into mid-February, there is an increased likelihood of more unsettled conditions becoming established, with the northwest likely to be the wettest area, but showers or longer spells of rain may spread to most areas at times, but with the southeast likely to be the driest. Spells of strong winds are likely to develop more widely at times. Temperatures likely to be near or slightly above average although short lived colder interludes are possible. Any snow likely to be restricted to high ground in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[damianslaw]

These updates continue to suggest less azores high influence and more atlantic low pressure influence.

[Summer Sun]

Monday 31 Jan - Wednesday 9 Feb

Through this period, the weather is likely to start off wetter than of late, with blustery showers in the north and cloudy with rain in the south, before clearing away through the day on Monday to leave brighter conditions. Cloudy and dry weather is then possible to return for most at the end of January, while it is likely to be wet and windy in the northwest at times, with wintry showers possible over high ground in Scotland. Moving into February, the largely settled and cloudy weather is likely to remain for most, with some rain and wind in the far northwest at times. Overall, temperatures are likely to be near or milder than average through this period, although some brief colder than average spells in the north are possible.

Thursday 10 Feb - Thursday 24 Feb

The current north-south split to the weather is likely to continue from mid-February and through to the second half of the month, with most seeing drier than average conditions. The northwest of the UK is likely to see some rain and strong winds at times. During this period, temperatures are likely to remain milder than average overall, with brief colder incursions possible in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 1 Feb - Thursday 10 Feb

Cloud and outbreaks of rain are likely in the northwest initially on Tuesday, spreading across the UK throughout the day, with temperatures near normal. The north/south divide will continue through Wednesday and Thursday, likely wet and windy in northern areas, and drier conditions in the south, with temperatures remaining mild. Wintry showers possible over high ground in Scotland. Moving further into February, the largely settled and cloudy weather is likely to remain for most, with some rain and strong winds in the far northwest at times. Overall, temperatures are likely to be near or milder than average through this period, although some brief colder than average spells are possible, likely to be restricted to northern areas.

Friday 11 Feb - Friday 25 Feb

The current north-south split to the weather is likely to continue from mid-February and through to the second half of the month, with most seeing drier than average conditions. The northwest of the UK is likely to see some rain and strong winds at times. During this period, temperatures are likely to remain milder than average overall, with brief colder incursions possible in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 2 Feb - Friday 11 Feb

An unsettled start to this period as rain moves north-eastward, becoming increasingly widespread and heavy. Some wintery conditions could also develop around high ground in Scotland. Gale force winds in the far north and northeast start to ease, although temperatures continue to remain rather cold in this area. Elsewhere temperatures remain around average with a moderate to strong breeze. A north/south divide is expected to continue through the rest of the period with settled conditions and milder temperatures prevailing in the south, whilst unsettled and wetter conditions with strong winds are seen across northern regions. Some, mostly short-lived, spells of colder temperatures are likely in the north and northwest, where some wintery showers could develop.

Saturday 12 Feb - Saturday 26 Feb

The current north-south split to the weather is likely to continue from mid-February and through to the second half of the month. Northern areas, especially the northwest, are likely to see nearer average temperatures with more rain and strong winds interspersed with a few short-lived colder spells. Southern regions are likely to see warmer, drier and overall, more settled conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[damianslaw]

Met Office outlook suggests a fair amount of polar maritime air in the forecast throughout February.

[Don]

6 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Met Office outlook suggests a fair amount of polar maritime air in the forecast throughout February.

Maybe, but means very little for us in the south who want to see snow this winter.

[syed2878]

3 hours ago, Don said:

Maybe, but means very little for us in the south who want to see snow this winter.

  Indeed Don I must say the update from Met office is quite poor for the south though no wintry conditions here as the update says mild colder up north though really poor winter this has been apart from couple of days end of November and beginning of December.

[Don]

10 hours ago, syed2878 said:

  Indeed Don I must say the update from Met office is quite poor for the south though no wintry conditions here as the update says mild colder up north though really poor winter this has been apart from couple of days end of November and beginning of December.

Yes, looking increasingly likely that the snow at the end of snow November and early December was our lot for winter!

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 3 Feb - Saturday 12 Feb

An unsettled start to this period with continued cloud and outbreaks of rain, mostly across the north and northwest. This rainfall may disperse to introduce areas of sunshine with showers, some of which may be wintry across the northwest. Strong winds are also set to continue into the latter part of next week where gales are likely and possibly severe in exposed areas. Initially temperatures feeling mild. A north/south divide is expected to continue through the rest of the period with settled conditions and milder temperatures prevailing in the south, whilst unsettled and wetter conditions with strong winds are seen across northern regions. Some, mostly short-lived, spells of colder temperatures are likely in the north and northwest, where some wintery showers could develop.

Sunday 13 Feb - Sunday 27 Feb

The current north-south split to the weather is likely to continue from mid-February and through to the second half of the month. Northern areas, especially the northwest, are likely to see nearer average temperatures with more rain and strong winds interspersed with a few short-lived colder spells. Southern regions are likely to see warmer, drier and overall, more settled conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 4 Feb - Sunday 13 Feb

Sunshine and showers are expected at the start of this period, these showers most frequent and wintry in the north and northwest, merging at times into longer spells of rain in the north. Many east and southeastern parts will remain mostly dry. It will be windy for all with gales likely. Temperatures will be near normal but could feel much colder in the wind. A north/south divide is expected to continue through the rest of the period with settled conditions and milder temperatures prevailing in the south, whilst unsettled and wetter conditions with strong winds are seen across northern regions, especially the northwest with near average temperatures. Some, mostly short-lived, spells of colder temperatures are likely in the north and northwest, where some wintery showers could develop.

Monday 14 Feb - Monday 28 Feb

The current north-south split to the weather is likely to continue from mid-February and through to the second half of the month. Northern areas, especially the northwest, are likely to see nearer average temperatures with more rain and strong winds interspersed with a few short-lived colder spells. Southern regions are likely to see warmer, drier and overall, more settled conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Tomorrow's Met Office long range update will cover the first day of spring. Scary how quick the season go by.

[Don]

28 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Tomorrow's Met Office long range update will cover the first day of spring. Scary how quick the season go by.

Not when they’re rubbish lol!

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 5 Feb - Monday 14 Feb

Scattered showers across the northwest and down parts of the east coast will die away towards the start of this period. Elsewhere is expected to be dry and partly cloudy, with cloud increasing across the northwest throughout Saturday, this bringing rain later. It will be windy with gales around northern coasts, but lighter winds in the south. Temperatures will be mild by the end of the day. A north/south divide is expected to continue through the rest of the period with settled conditions and milder temperatures prevailing in the south, whilst unsettled and wetter conditions with strong winds are seen across northern regions, especially the northwest, with near average temperatures. Some, mostly short-lived, spells of colder temperatures are likely in the north and northwest, where some wintry showers could develop.

Tuesday 15 Feb - Tuesday 1 Mar

The current north-south split to the weather is likely to continue from mid-February and through to the second half of the month. Northern areas, especially the northwest, are likely to see nearer average temperatures with more rain and strong winds interspersed with a few short-lived colder spells. Southern regions are likely to see milder, drier and overall, more settled conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 6 Feb - Tuesday 15 Feb

Most places fairly cloudy on Sunday, and outbreaks of rain will move southeast through the day, with colder conditions to the north, and milder conditions to the south. Through the rest of the period high pressure remains to the southwest of the UK and is expected to push low pressure systems towards the north of the country. This will lead to an unsettled picture for much of the UK with heavy rain, stronger winds and a risk of wintry precipitation in the north while the south is expected to remain largely dry. It will be milder for many especially in the south of the country while brief colder incursions from the north are possible throughout the period.

Sunday 6 Feb - Tuesday 15 Feb

Most places fairly cloudy on Sunday, and outbreaks of rain will move southeast through the day, with colder conditions to the north, and milder conditions to the south. Through the rest of the period high pressure remains to the southwest of the UK and is expected to push low pressure systems towards the north of the country. This will lead to an unsettled picture for much of the UK with heavy rain, stronger winds and a risk of wintry precipitation in the north while the south is expected to remain largely dry. It will be milder for many especially in the south of the country while brief colder incursions from the north are possible throughout the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Generally mild. More unsettled in the North

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Generally mild. More unsettled in the North

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

There's a surprise! 

[damianslaw]

Hints may see continued blasts of polar maritime air with azores high waxing and waning.. can't rule out it being affected far enough west to pull in a more colder northerly at times.